February 2014 in the PNW

[FroYoBro]

I saw 14 snow flakes. OOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Snow]

12z GEM was pretty good for PDX. 850mb -15c to -16c

Cold, then what do we have here? A nice 1000mb low off southern Oregon Coast with strong, very cold easterly wind through the Gorge. Sure looks like a Snow/Ice storm to me.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_090_0000.gif

 

Yeah that would be snow for a pretty long duration, followed by sleet, then freezing rain. ECMWF has led the way in all of this.

[GobBluth]

12z GEM was pretty good for PDX. 850mb -15c to -16c

Cold, then what do we have here? A nice 1000mb low off southern Oregon Coast with strong, very cold easterly wind through the Gorge. Sure looks like a Snow/Ice storm to me.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_090_0000.gif

Whoa, thats a recipe for a big snowstorm.

[TT-SEA]

I had SEA at 37/25 in the contest for today.

 

SEA is already at 34 after a low of 28.

 

I am VERY concerned that I was too cold for today.    I have a cold bias so that is to be expected.   

[Snow]

12z ECMWF is very cold, followed by moisture very early on Saturday. Cold air still in place, huge snow and ice storm for most of the western lowlands.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/f96.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My Dad says it has been snowing in Stayton all morning, snowing moderately there now. Looking at radar it looks like there is a fairly stationary shower right over them.

[westcoastexpat]

I am not even paying attention to the GFS until 2 days out. It's warm bias in the upper troposphere is showing and it's having it's monthly major fail right now. It might take until tonights 00z run for the GFS to get it's act together.

 

It's been awful lately. The Euro is finally getting itself together after a couple months of failing.

 

GGEM has been the model to watch.

[GobBluth]

It's been awful lately. The Euro is finally getting itself together after a couple months of failing.

 

GGEM has been the model to watch.

GEM was the superior model in the December event.

[Gradient Keeper]

I like IR Loop and the trajectory of the arctic air mass in eastern BC, Alberta, and up in NWT heading right for us.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

[GobBluth]

I like IR Loop and the trajectory of the arctic air mass in eastern BC, Alberta, and up in NWT heading right for us.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

Not unreasonable to see how a low could kick off about 50/140 and move inland like last nights gfs showed.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF sure turns ugly in the long range.

[bainbridgekid]

12Z ECMWF sure turns ugly in the long range.

Solid 2-4" snowstorm Saturday for just about everybody though.

[catnip]

12Z ECMWF sure turns ugly in the long range.

Yup!

[westcoastexpat]

GEM was the superior model in the December event.

 Absolutely

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going to make a bold prediction. This weekend most widespread snow event for salem north to Canadian border since 2008. Terrible ice storm for the Portland area to follow. Large area of 3-8 inches in area talked about. Would not be surprised at all to see over a foot around the canal.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And I hope jesse gets a foot of snow with 100mph winds.  

[Snow]

Going to make a bold prediction. This weekend most widespread snow event for salem north to Canadian border since 2008. Terrible ice storm for the Portland area to follow. Large area of 3-8 inches in area talked about. Would not be surprised at all to see over a foot around the canal.

 

I agree with your statements. The models are always too aggressive with warming.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I agree with your statements. The models are always too aggressive with warming.

Yep, and there will be massive cold air to tap in eastern wa.

[Snow]

Yep, and there will be massive cold air to tap in eastern wa.

 

For PDX, I am thinking around 6" followed by ice for a long duration.

[Snow]

Snow starting to pick up now in the PDX area. Radar is filling up fast. This is a good sign for this weekend. The ECMWF tends to underestimate precip so the leading edge of that system coming early Saturday might come sooner than expected and heavier.

[chinook]

And I hope jesse gets a foot of snow with 100mph winds.  

 

he'll get nothing and like it.

[DRG]

So THIS is where all the cool kids hang out!  Geeze, I step away from Western for a month and everyone disappears!   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

he'll get nothing and like it.

BOOO.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So THIS is where all the cool kids hang out!  Geeze, I step away from Western for a month and everyone disappears!   

Welcome to the playground.

[GobBluth]

Severe flurries in sw portland

[Deweydog]

I'm nervous.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm nervous.  

I could tell. Fingers shaking on the key board?

[FroYoBro]

Pretty good snow shower here. Not really sticking since it is 35. 

[chinook]

McMinnville area.  Snow shower passing through.  Big flakes.  Temperature @ 35f. 

[MossMan]

I'm nervous.  

As nervous as Manning was on Sunday?

 

We are going to get slammed this weekend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light snow falling here in Salem, my car thermometer said 36.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like BLI has a shot at a sub-freezing high 28 at noon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 in Spokane 22 in Moses Lake with brisk NE winds...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just in the last couple of minutes the snow has begun to stick here in Salem.

[FroYoBro]

It's pretty surprising to see the temperature continue to climb upwards even with the snow falling. 

 

Mark mentioned how the models overdid the cold.

 

Models have overdone the cold air banked up against the east side of the Cascades.  The WRF-GFS showed 5,000′ temps around zero to +5 by this morning on the east side of the north Oregon Cascades.  Instead it’s 13 and 12 at Timberline and Meadows.  Oops…  The other is that models obviously have overdone the cold air at the surface in general.

[Bham_Guy]

Looks like BLI has a shot at a sub-freezing high 28 at noon.

 

Sub-freezing looks good. With increasing clouds there is an outside shot at sub 30.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doubt we get out of the 30s today here in Salem...I didn't think it was going to be much colder than this today. The WRF was obviously overblown. It was spitting out highs of 22 at PDX.

[TT-SEA]

Doubt we get out of the 30s today here in Salem...I didn't think it was going to be much colder than this today. The WRF was obviously overblown. It was spitting out highs of 22 at PDX.

 

 

Drives me crazy when Jim uses the WRF to predict highs in these situations.    You can add 10 degrees at least almost every time.

 

And then everyone rips the MOS guidance like its wrong all the time and always ridiculously warm.  

 

GFS MOS had 37 at SEA today... its 37 right now.    Its not that bad.

[Thunderhill]

FWIW, 18z NAM moves up timing and is warmer...to continue with the trend.

[Deweydog]

18z NAM adds to the parade of uncertainty.