February 2014 in the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z NAM is awesome. Low comes in Thursday-Friday south of PDX stalls throws up increasing moisture. More moisture/WHITER run. East wind continues. And look what is approaching the southern Oregon Coast? oooo this is going to be BIG

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_054_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_060_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_066_10m_wnd_precip.gif

Great for you guys!! I will be thinking of you while PuyallupJohn and I mow our lawns here in the swamp.

[FroYoBro]

I am liking the spot Portland is in for the next couple of days. Might be a nice mix of cold and moisture. 

[The Swamp]

I hate Steve Pool.

[Snow]

00z NAM is awesome. Low comes in Thursday-Friday south of PDX stalls throws up increasing moisture. More moisture/WHITER run. East wind continues. And look what is approaching the southern Oregon Coast? oooo this is going to be BIG

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_054_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_060_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_066_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

This would be December 2008 all over again!

[GHweatherChris]

The 0z NAM shows snow for most of Oregon Thursday into Thursday night. Portland gets nailed on this run. 

Whoopty Frickin DOO!!

 

I am starting to think this will not be a very fun event for snow up this way at all.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This would be December 2008 all over again!

not really... Will not stick around as there will be a warm up afterward and most of WA gets screwed, again. This is nothing like 2008...

[The Swamp]

Whoopty Frickin DOO!!

 

I am starting to think this will not be a very fun event for snow up this way at all.

It's all going to shift to the north. Just wait for it

[BLI snowman]

Not sure what WA folks are whining about. We rocked it compared to Oregon in 2010-11 and January 2012, and look to get a pretty good albeit not great snow event out of the weekend. Perspective.

[GHweatherChris]

It's all going to shift to the north. Just wait for it

I am trying reverse psychology on this one.  

 

The latest trends are concerning at this point though.

[Jesse]

It's all going to shift to the north. Just wait for it

 

Sadly, you're probably right.

[GHweatherChris]

Not sure what WA folks are whining about. We rocked it compared to Oregon in 2010-11 and January 2012, and look to get a pretty good albeit not great snow event out of the weekend. Perspective.

See my post above.

 

I overall still like the chances of a decent snowfall, and I am hoping the Chehalis Gap can help me as it has in the past.

 

I just wish the models were a bit more aggressive right now, but I know we have alot of time.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hey, us Oregonians and those in SW Washington were screwed in 2011 when you guys in Puget Sound got hammered over and over and over AND OVER again... it's our turn. Thank you.

[TT-SEA]

Be careful Oregon people... the new MM5 NAM shows a very different picture.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/pcp1.54.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/pcp1.60.0000.gif

 

We saw this earlier this year as well.... I think the MM5 was the correct one.   

[van city]

Hey, us Oregonians and those in SW Washington were screwed in 2011 when you guys in Puget Sound got hammered over and over and over AND OVER again... it's our turn. Thank you.

Your welcome. :-D

[FroYoBro]

Be careful Oregon people... the new MM5 NAM shows a very different picture.

 

 

 

 

 

We saw this earlier this year as well.... I think the MM5 was the correct one.   

I will be VERY careful. 

[Snow]

00z NAM looks excellent for PDX but we need to wait for the 00z ECMWF tonight for confirmation. My brain tells me this wont verify but I hope it does.

[van city]

Hey, us Oregonians and those in SW Washington were screwed in 2011 when you guys in Puget Sound got hammered over and over and over AND OVER again... it's our turn. Thank you.

If you get all that snow I'm driving down there and we have a snowball fight. :-P

[Perturbed Member]

I know the weather doesn't care who's turn it is and who's it isn't, but I don't think anyone can deny that PDX has been pretty starved of a real snowstorm for quite a while now. I don't mind if the Thursday system comes up further north and gives PDX to maybe SEA snow though. That would screw Salem-Eugene but they had an awesome storm in December.

[Bryant]

If you get all that snow I'm driving down there and we have a snowball fight. :-P

You should do quite well if the Euro has anything to say about it

[The Swamp]

Not sure what WA folks are whining about. We rocked it compared to Oregon in 2010-11 and January 2012, and look to get a pretty good albeit not great snow event out of the weekend. Perspective.

Hey man. If it's not snowing in my yard, do I care? Portland might as well be Montana or Wisconsin.

[Snowman Josh]

Just based on the southern stream flow I can definitely see the Nam verifying for Thursday/Thursday night. I can also see a ton of the energy for this weekend's low getting entrained in the northern branch. The nice thing I am seeing is low pressure not veering too far north as we enter a zonal pattern. Won't take much for a triple point to give us the goods all weekend long, with maybe a 48 hour break, then right back into the fun.

 

The pattern looks very sexy!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hate Steve Pool.

Yeah. He has to be the worst weather forecaster east and west of the Mississippi river.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I heard todays EURO control showed a very sexy trough in late February.

[GHweatherChris]

Hey man. If it's not snowing in my yard, do I care? Portland might as well be Montana or Wisconsin.

Exactly.

[Snowman Josh]

I heard todays EURO control showed a very sexy trough in late February.

Hey, it's sexy to enjoy weather. That's why all the women dig us!!

[MossMan]

Yeah. He has to be the worst weather forecaster east and west of the Mississippi river.

What was his forecast? I haven't watched him or any other TV Met for years now, did he show a little single snowflake & rain icon on Saturday and all rain drops Sunday?

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah. He has to be the worst weather forecaster east and west of the Mississippi river.

 

I think Q13 with MJ and that other guy is worse. Oh and of course Rich Marriott hates snow. =)

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah. He has to be the worst weather forecaster east and west of the Mississippi river.

Good thing he is not a meteorologist.

[chopper 918]

I think Q13 with MJ and that other guy is worse. Oh and of course Rich Marriott hates snow. =)

Rich Marriott? That's really one of your weathermen's name? That's as bad as Ron Burgundy!

[paulb/eugene]

4km NAM output (not from UW) has Lane County getting 4-7 inches from Florence to Cascades ending 60 from now, with all precip S of Salem.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The GFS has been trending lower and lower with 500mb heights over Vancouver Island for Thursday/Friday. A couple days ago it had them bottoming out at 536dm, now they bottom out around 522dm. Definitely a positive sign if we want to get a decent overrunning event out of this; we need the heights to stay suppressed over the immediate NE Pacific to avoid the slow dry death of the Arctic air mass from the NW. Looking like things could phase quickly for a more favourable direct transit of the Pacific moisture over the cold airmass. It'll be interesting to see if these trends continue and the timing moves up.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Hey, us Oregonians and those in SW Washington were screwed in 2011 when you guys in Puget Sound got hammered over and over and over AND OVER again... it's our turn. Thank you.

Actually, I was shadowed during that event.

[MossMan]

Rich Marriott? That's really one of your weathermen's name? That's as bad as Ron Burgundy!

I know I have mentioned this before, but I will never forget the look on Rich Marriot's face during the Nov 1996 snow that was supposed to turn to rain within a few hours. He was all smug at 5AM during the start of the newscast about how we might have a quick inch for 1hr but will be all rain by 7AM and that commuters should be just fine. Well 7AM came and went with no turn over, nothing but many inches of snow for Seattle and cold North winds that continued to pour down the sound. Was epic seeing a dazed look on his face that his forecast failed miserably! I loved every second of it!!

[van city]

You should do quite well if the Euro has anything to say about it[/quote

 

It's too good to be true, however if it is I am getting 16 inches according to the map you posted it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What was his forecast? I haven't watched him or any other TV Met for years now, did he show a little single snowflake & rain icon on Saturday and all rain drops Sunday?

I dont know. But his hate for cold weather and warm bias makes him a shitty forecaster. Even when its obvious it will snow he will try and make it sound like it will never happen. Its like he thinks everyone dont want it or hates snow and cold. And him thinking this reflects on his forecast usually.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Actually, I was shadowed during that event.

I did not get much here either about 2 inches and what did fall here mostly melted later that day. Some areas did better though.

[Jesse]

Temperatures basically free falling out here at the moment. 24 currently.

[GHweatherChris]

Hey Fred, why are there no TV Meteorologists on your weather forums....

There is maybe 2 TV weather(people) locally that are actually Meteorologists now.  Jeff Renner is one I know of.

 

I could be wrong, but most are just faces with a bit of knowledge.

[Snow]

I am very surprised that the 00z GFS is still showing the system for Thursday hitting Oregon. I am still thinking this wont verify but its inside 48 hours now.

[FroYoBro]

Temperatures basically free falling out here at the moment. 24 currently.

What did you get down to in December?