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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


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I had my biggest wind event of the season last night. I'm guessing gusts around 60 mph which is similar to other nearby reports. Received 1.12" of rain during the night and this morning. We had some tree damage in the area...next door neighbors lost a branch that knocked down their cable internet service wire. Pretty exciting...lol.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Northern MO again was hit with heavy rains. 6-8 in fell for the second week in a row and many roads are washed out.

My son and his wife (and their 7 mo old child) drove from KC yesterday late afternoon and evening to Burlington IA to visit some of her family and didn't run into any rain (minor miracle..lol) until they got to Burlington which had flooding underway and they had to take an alternate route to get to her grandmother's house. They plan to come back Sunday so hopefully they won't run into any travel problems.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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19 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

My son and his wife (and their 7 mo old child) drove from KC yesterday late afternoon and evening to Burlington IA to visit some of her family and didn't run into any rain (minor miracle..lol) until they got to Burlington which had flooding underway and they had to take an alternate route to get to her grandmother's house. They plan to come back Sunday so hopefully they won't run into any travel problems.

Looks like I really dodged a bullet last night the updated rainfall totals for the northern half of MO are ridiculous.

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Short clip I took while in my car near Stanton, IA. Winds were probably 60-70 mph. Thankfully very little hail or I would have lost glass.

I have much more video from my dashcam I’m going to go through later today.

At my house, the wind tipped over our big old grill that also had a propane tank sitting in it, but yet the little scrub bush didn’t move🤷‍♂️

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Security camera footage of our portable basketball hoop (which I should have taken down before the storm hit) getting blown into the house during the storm last night… thankfully it missed hitting my truck as it fell.

Front gutter will need to be replaced but it could have been worse.

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When I click on the movie files this morning all I get is a page with the comment, "We could not locate the item you are trying to view." 

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Round 2 is barreling through the Omaha metro with more strong wind gusts and very heavy rain… hampering clean up efforts from last night’s storms.

Two Severe Thunderstorm Warnings within 15 hours from two separate storm complexes definitely seems a little odd considering how quiet this severe season has been so far.

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26 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Round 2 is barreling through the Omaha metro with more strong wind gusts and very heavy rain… hampering clean up efforts from last night’s storms.

Two Severe Thunderstorm Warnings within 15 hours from two separate storm complexes definitely seems a little odd considering how quiet this severe season has been so far.

This one was much more tame thankfully. I’d guess maybe 50 mph gusts at my place. Have added almost another inch of rain which brings me to about 2.25” last 24 hours.

Here’s a couple of damage pics from the neighborhood.

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.85 this morn between  4 and 9 am, nice soaking rain with little run off. Creek is actually  low from the hot dry period  to start July. So far in July  1.04 in the davis pro in July.  Since June 18th over 8 inches and Im one of drier locations  in Southeast  Iowa

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There was some concern that the sensor malfunctioned at the airport last night when it measured that huge gust, but apparently it’s been verified.

Also this guy put together a tweet showing an interesting notch that moved right over the airport at that time. I noticed it last night as well. Maybe a brief spin up?

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4 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Yeah. Going to get bumpy around here after awhile.

You get all the fun.   
I just had one lone cloud sprinkle on me for 5 minutes.  I feel neglected. 😞

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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D**n!!!!

“On Friday, the temperature at Death Valley soared to 130 degrees, breaking the previous daily record high of 129 set back in 1913, according to the National Weather Service. This reading comes within 4 degrees of the all-time world record of 134 F set there in 1913. The 134-degree mark happens to be the world record for the highest temperature ever measured on Earth.”

-Accuweather.com

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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As the US media festers on the record heat in the West (for good reason- it's "record" after all ) just thought I would share that the South Pole and Antarctica are having one of the coldest winters on record. Here Is June 2021 at the South Pole- (the missing temps are likely well below -100F- outside the reach of the auto temp sensor). Over 15F below normal for June and July is running near the same.  Probably didn't hear this on your local news...

No photo description available.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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No. Tx. Receiving heavy rain from the tail of the front.   Very unusual to receive this sort of Fall like sweeping front in mid July.  
Heavy rain and thunder at this hour.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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19 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like I really dodged a bullet last night the updated rainfall totals for the northern half of MO are ridiculous.

image.png.43d007fc2a0787bc8aa1c445336f9ec2.png

I saw a radar loop of that storm and it was stationary for at least 3 hrs, dumping copious amounts of rain in a pretty small area!

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The Monsoon season has left its mark already a couple times this season across parts of the "valley of the sun".  This past Fri night was the southern and eastern valley's turn.  Then, yesterday most of the entire Valley saw some action as severe storms ushered in outflows.

Image

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/blowing-dust-advisory-issued-for-major-part-of-arizona-1

 

This coming week will likely deliver one of the seasons biggest threats IMO...the Tue-Thu period looks pretty wild for the entire state of AZ.  I gotta tell ya, my gut feeling was that this year's Monsoon would deliver the "goods" and it sure as heck is so far.  This all ties in to where I believe nature will be guiding us into the early parts of Autumn.  

 

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14 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

.85 this morn between  4 and 9 am, nice soaking rain with little run off. Creek is actually  low from the hot dry period  to start July. So far in July  1.04 in the davis pro in July.  Since June 18th over 8 inches and Im one of drier locations  in Southeast  Iowa

Finally an update from me……Had light to moderate rainfall here with occasional claps of thunder starting before 5am and ending soon after 9:00am Saturday morning. Only 0.42” bringing my total with Fri evening to 1.05”. (1.08” for July so about the same as you have.) So far we sure haven’t gotten what models had been showing! 

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It’s one of the more gloomy, cool and damp mornings of this summer.  Very fall-like as @james1976 has mentioned.  Temp in the mid 60’s with a rather strong NE wind off the lake certainly not a fun day to be by the lake.  @Jaycee

 

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Looks like some showers are rotating in from the east now as models had been showing. Hopefully it’s further north than what the HRRR and some other CAMS are showing. At this time it appears so, but we’ll see. 

Edited by Sparky
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The JMA seasonal came out yesterday and I like what I'm seeing for the rest of summer and through the 1st half of met Autumn.  Hint, hint, hint...La Nina, Blocking, EC Hurricane threats and PAC SST warm & cool pools....setting the stages for an interesting '21-'22 LRC.

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After the first 10 days of July Grand Rapids has a mean of 72.6 and that is exactly average after 10 days. The high so far this month is 89 and the low so far is 54. There has been 0.70" of rain fall and that is below the average of 1.21 after 10 days. At Muskegon they have a mean of 70.4 and that is -1.0 the high/low there so far is 86 and 49. they have had 0.38" of rain fall  0.84 is average. At Holland the mean there is 70.9 and that is a departure of -0.5 the H/L so far 88/51. There has been 0.31" of rain fall average at this time should be 0.90" And to the east at Lansing the mean there is 72.8 and that is +1.1 above average the high there has been 91 and the low so far has been 53. They have reported 0.30" of rain fall and that is below the average of 0.97 as of this date. For some reason Lansing so far this month is running more above average than other locations in lower Michigan. Here are some departures from average at the 10 day mark. Detroit -0.1, Flint +0.6, Saginaw -1.0, Alpena -0.9 and Houghton Lake +0.3. At this time it is cloudy and 65 here at my house.

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4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

As the US media festers on the record heat in the West (for good reason- it's "record" after all ) just thought I would share that the South Pole and Antarctica are having one of the coldest winters on record. Here Is June 2021 at the South Pole- (the missing temps are likely well below -100F- outside the reach of the auto temp sensor). Over 15F below normal for June and July is running near the same.  Probably didn't hear this on your local news...

No photo description available.

Has anyone been able to correlate bad southern hemisphere Winters to upcoming Northern Hemisphere Winters?

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5 hours ago, Sparky said:

Some decent rainfall rates with these showers this morning. Over 0.15” so far.

Another  .40 so far today and temp hovering at 64f! This is clearly  the wettest  summer in the Ottumwa  Iowa area since 2010.  Well over 8 inches since June 18th.  And my home in a somewhat  drier location.  One friend southeast wapello  county near eldon  is at 16 inches since June 18.

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

The Euro and GFS have yet another cut-off low that spins over the middle of the country next weekend.  More rainy days coming.

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Those two models don’t agree. The Euro generally has the heaviest where the GFS has the lightest amounts. 

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I've only picked up a couple hundredths today from periods of sprinkles or very light showers.

I've only received a quarter inch in July.  I sure hope the midweek storms pan out.  There may be a long dry period beyond that system.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 hours ago, Clinton said:

Has anyone been able to correlate bad southern hemisphere Winters to upcoming Northern Hemisphere Winters?

I've spoken of a 12-18 month cooling cycle associated with high volcanism that could start in the SO hem. There's a volcanic gas cycle study somewhere from all of the eruptions back in the early 1990s and the weather. 

Wildfire smoke from N.A. and Russia has taken the same 12-18 month path across the equator to the south pole.

This just so happens to coincide with a few other cycles. It's why I've missed it so many times. I was very very early.

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211472826_940954696759528_6994277638847741945_n.jpg?_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.cdninstagram.com&_nc_cat=1&_nc_ohc=R3KiuwosvNMAX-PbREb&edm=APfKNqwBAAAA&ccb=7-4&oh=1a4114c996ed8221c4c1752f1e55dda5&oe=60EE1D80&_nc_sid=74f7ba
 

A young golfers golf ball was struck by lightning a split second after leaving the tee.   
This is why you don’t golf in the rain.  

6A0B6D48-8794-49D6-9115-897F9DDA0C12.webp

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Total precip for the weekend was a whopping...drum roll...(.20") reported at ORD.  While some locations had a bit more, the band of precip never really materialized to something really heavy.  Really didn't have the lift and instability this go around.  I'm fine with it bc at least it soaked into the ground nicely and didn't evaporate due to the cool and cloudy conditions.  Had a high of 71F yesterday when the sun poked out for about an hour, otherwise we were stuck in the 60's all day long.  Felt very autumn-like all weekend as the cut-off low spun around.

 

 

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MSP is in a good spot to see some severe wx Wed-Thu period...seems like its been a long time since that region had any active wx.

I'm hoping we score some good rains along the frontal boundary later on Thu bc after that it will be a snooze fest for a good stretch.  

0z Euro/EPS...

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Looking out towards Fri-Sun period, the models trended towards the Euro as HP dominates around the GL's and eastern MW.  Some top notch wx with highs in the low 80's, comfy DP's and abundant sunshine.  Talk about a great opportunity to enjoy the outdoors!

 

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So far this year there have officially been 13 "thunderstorms" at Grand Rapids. Now while that may seem like a lot here at my house I have not counted the thunder events and I am sure there would be some that I miss but personally I feel we have NOT had many events this year so far. While it is true there have been times of some distance lightning there has of yet been a close up storm here that I know of. 

There have now been 4 days in a row of highs in the 70's the last time that July had 4 days in a row of highs in the 70's was in 2014. There was just a trace of rain fall here yesterday. The overnight low here was 63 and the official low looks to have been 62 at GRR. At this time it is cloudy and 72 here.

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Love seeing this map over the state of AZ...#Monsoon

I hope to see the valley score at least 1" of rain out of this set up...I wish I was there to experience the storms that'll likely fire up on drift S into the valley.  It's always quite the beautiful scenery watching lighting bolts and feeling the wind gusts coming from the outflows.

 

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