August 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Good be an interesting evening tomorrow.

Bad would be awesome.

[Deweydog]

Bad would be awesome.

Destructive dew points!

[GHweatherChris]

Destructive dew points!

DEWEY dew points???

[Deweydog]

DEWEY dew points???

Dewey's not a fan of sticky weather.

[Phil]

Those low-60s dews are brutal.

[Phil]

But what does that all mean? I mean in layman's terms.

Looks like a classic Niño winter.

 

I think the most likely outcome right now is a coast-to-coast blowtorch through the 1st half of winter, with somewhat of a flip in late January. Where the cold goes is obviously up in the air (no pun intended), but obviously the coldest anomalies will probably be in the SE US.

 

Might be tough to get legitimate Arctic air in if the Aleutian low is too far east.

[Phil]

I miss snow_wiz.

[MossMan]

I miss snow_wiz.

He will be back once the snow level reaches Covington again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Love Mike Trout. 

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/angels-superstar-mike-trout-really-likes-weather/

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks like a classic Niño winter.

 

I think the most likely outcome right now is a coast-to-coast blowtorch through the 1st half of winter, with somewhat of a flip in late January. Where the cold goes is obviously up in the air (no pun intended), but obviously the coldest anomalies will probably be in the SE US.

 

Might be tough to get legitimate Arctic air in if the Aleutian low is too far east.

so snow chances are unlikely this winter?

[Jesse]

Could potentially be an exciting afternoon/evening on the way.

 

Hopefully not a ton of new fire starts to go along with it. But luckily models seem to be trending toward some areas getting a decent soaking late in the week.

[FroYoBro]

Could potentially be an exciting afternoon/evening on the way.

 

Hopefully not a ton of new fire starts to go along with it. But luckily models seem to be trending toward some areas getting a decent soaking late in the week.

 This evening/night is one of the first decent chances for widespread thunderstorms in a long time. Been pretty boring in regards to convection from all of the huge stable ridges this Summer. 

[Jesse]

This evening/night is one of the first decent chances for widespread thunderstorms in a long time. Been pretty boring in regards to convection from all of the huge stable ridges this Summer.

Tru dat.

 

No lightning over the south Cascades yet. I figured there would be something by now.

 

Only strikes on the map are in far Eastern Oregon.

[IbrChris]

I added the "Ensemble Mean" row between NWS and Consensus. The Ensemble Mean shown is the weighted mean of the ECMWF-EPS (50 members), GEFS MOS (20 members) and CMCE MOS (20 members). They are weighted by number of members as follows ((50*ECMWF)+(20*GEFS)+(20*CMCE))/(50+20+20). They provide a quick comparison to the ensembles of all three main global models.The Consensus forecast contains ECMWF-EPS, GEFS MOS and CMCE MOS as members but doesn't include their mean as a separate member since the three are already accounted for.

[Jesse]

Storms starting to fire over the Oregon Cascades now.

[Front Ranger]

Love Mike Trout. 

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/angels-superstar-mike-trout-really-likes-weather/

 

Celebrity weenie! A rare thing indeed, as far as I know.

[Andie]

He will be back once the snow level reaches Covington again.

I thought Sno would show up as the El Niño has grown. Promises to be a really good one.

[Deweydog]

Could potentially be an exciting afternoon/evening on the way.

 

Hopefully not a ton of new fire starts to go along with it. But luckily models seem to be trending toward some areas getting a decent soaking late in the week.

Gonna be tough to get anything to fire in the valley. Could be a decent light show to the east though.

[Jesse]

Gonna be tough to get anything to fire in the valley. Could be a decent light show to the east though.

 

I am way west of I-5 for the time being.

 

Ground zero for the impending mega-quake and out of sight of crest-based convection.

[Deweydog]

I am way west of I-5 for the time being.

 

Ground zero for the impending mega-quake and out of sight of crest-based convection.

You are a lot closer to Bridgeport Village though!

[Front Ranger]

I emailed Trout last April about joining but he ignored me.  Guess I shouldn't have signed it "Bryce Harper."

 

 Sounds like he's more of an east coast weenie, anyway, since that's where he's from.

[Jesse]

Fire in Sherwood.

[Front Ranger]

I thought Sno would show up as the El Niño has grown. Promises to be a really good one.

 

He ******* hates El Ninos with a passion.

[TT-SEA]

He ******* hates El Ninos with a passion.

Actually he wants this Nino to be really strong for a reset. He is probably happy.

[Front Ranger]

Actually he wants this Nino to be really strong for a reset. He is probably happy.

 

He has said that, but it goes against his nature. Deep down, he can't help rooting for every winter to deliver. He's the biggest weenie ever, and that's why we love him.

 

1972-73 analog, anyone?

[Front Ranger]

Oh, pleeeeeease!!!

 

That was the winter that turned me into an official "weenie."  I was 12, and I vividly remember the clouds parting after a vigorous March 1973 storm to reveal a jaw-dropping panorama of snow-capped mountains that looked like they'd been transported from Alaska.  I was hooked!

 

Nice. 

 

December wasn't half bad that winter, either.

[TT-SEA]

Plenty of rain this evening in London. Met another couple from Seattle at the airport, they also missed the rain too.

 

 

Friday and Saturday morning look pretty wet around here.

[Jesse]

Just one more 90 to go for PDX to tie the record!! Tomorrow should be good for it.

 

Then we will probably see another heat wave next week, just to make it ridiculous.

 

Now that August is trending really warm it will likely be the warmest summer on record by a huge margin for most locations, too. Not every year do we have a June with a 70+ degree average to pad things!

 

Completely unprecedented stretch for our region. Never before in written history have we ever seen a warm season this anomalously hot and dry. But don't take my word for it, just check out the suffering native vegetation and bone dry creek beds!!

[Front Ranger]

Friday and Saturday morning look pretty wet around here.

 

Just in time for the Seahawks/Broncos first preseason game. 

 

People in Denver watching will have no idea that the hottest, driest summer in Seattle history (to this point) has occurred...they'll just view it as a typical rainy evening in Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

Just in time for the Seahawks/Broncos first preseason game. 

 

People in Denver watching will have no idea that the hottest, driest summer in Seattle history (to this point) has occurred...they'll just view it as a typical rainy evening in Seattle.

 

 

12Z ECMWF detailed map shows a strong c-zone right over Seattle on Friday evening.   

[Tyler Mode]

First snow in Alaska today...termination dust!

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Quite the dousing on Friday on the new 00Z GFS... at least for WA and southern BC.   Deformation mania!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_069_precip_p24.gif

[luminen]

^ Sweet! Looks like pretty good thunderstorm chances here in Vancouver area on Friday. 

[TT-SEA]

Drought busting rain from Seattle northward on Friday...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_pcp72.84.0000.gif

[Front Ranger]

Latest Euro is pretty dynamic. A little slower to bring the low ashore on Friday, which looks more favorable for convection and perhaps t-storms that day, especially north. But places further south could get more rain than previously thought.

 

Then a fairly potent backdoor trough for early next week that would really do a number on dew points. Then a quick-hitting but very warm heatwave, followed by what looks like the mother of all tastes o' fall coming at the very end.

[TT-SEA]

Latest Euro is pretty dynamic. A little slower to bring the low ashore on Friday, which looks more favorable for convection and perhaps t-storms that day, especially north. But places further south could get more rain than previously thought.

 

Then a fairly potent backdoor trough for early next week that would really do a number on dew points. Then a quick-hitting but very warm heatwave, followed by what looks like the mother of all tastes o' fall coming at the very end.

 

Not really... this situation has shown up numerous times in the models in recent weeks.   The reality ends up being something digging farther offshore.    

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015081200!!chart.gif

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF was not as wet as the 00Z GFS for Friday... but does show everyone from Salem northward getting some rain.    Skies are sunny again by Saturday afternoon and Sunday looks perfect with sunshine and highs around 80.    All of the smoke from CA should be cleared out for the weekend after the system plows through on Friday.

[Deweydog]

Latest Euro is pretty dynamic. A little slower to bring the low ashore on Friday, which looks more favorable for convection and perhaps t-storms that day, especially north. But places further south could get more rain than previously thought.

 

Then a fairly potent backdoor trough for early next week that would really do a number on dew points. Then a quick-hitting but very warm heatwave, followed by what looks like the mother of all tastes o' fall coming at the very end.

Taste of fall? Looks more like a whole meal! Thicknesses in the 560's and 850mb temps in the teens are downright Novemberish!

[Jesse]

Our warm offshore SSTs are getting quite the light show this morning!

[TT-SEA]

Latest Euro is pretty dynamic. A little slower to bring the low ashore on Friday, which looks more favorable for convection and perhaps t-storms that day, especially north. But places further south could get more rain than previously thought.

 

Then a fairly potent backdoor trough for early next week that would really do a number on dew points. Then a quick-hitting but very warm heatwave, followed by what looks like the mother of all tastes o' fall coming at the very end.

 

12Z Canadian more appropriately fits this description...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif