Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 'Tis the Season for extrapolation. Day 11+ could be phenomenal. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 The 00z Euro is quite moist for the end of the month, especially for northern areas. BLI is at 8.67" on the month and its record wettest month all time is 11.60 from November 1990. The Euro has them there by Saturday evening, with another 2" to follow before the end of the month. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Nope Actually yup. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 'Tis the Season for extrapolation. Day 11+ could be phenomenal. The ECMWF looks like a winner to me. The ridge will explode much further east then the GFS. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF looks like a winner to me. The ridge will explode much further east then the GFS. Yep, and with a strong kona low. Turkey night we'll have the ridge merger near or just before Day 7. That'll be nice. 00z GFS (Turkey night) in 68 hours 25 minutes 00z ECMWF(Turkey night) in 70 hours 35 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: The 00z Euro is quite moist for the end of the month, especially for northern areas. BLI is at 8.67" on the month and its record wettest month all time is 11.60 from November 1990. The Euro has them there by Saturday evening, with another 2" to follow before the end of the month. And we all know what happened in 1990. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: And we all know what happened in 1990. No what happened 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: No what happened It rained a lot. Then it snowed a lot. Including on Christmas Day! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 Good night weather geeks and geekstresses 6z GFS in 2 hour 18 minutes 12z GFS in 8 hours 18 minutes 12z ECMWF in 10 hour 28 minutes Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: It rained a lot. Then it snowed a lot. Including on Christmas Day! And it got COLD! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: No what happened https://www.seattleweatherblog.com/snow/the-mother-of-all-convergence-zones/ That was the first of 2 blasts. Here is another account https://climate.washington.edu/stormking/December1990.html 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 Heavy rain! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: No what happened Our most recent white Christmas. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: And it got COLD! I was only 6. I remember we had family in town that Christmas from Cali and it was a lot of fun. Huge icicles hung from the roof. We kept our bottles of Santa emblazed bottles of Coke outside in a snowbank on our deck. Good times. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF looks like a winner to me. The ridge will explode much further east then the GFS. Verbatim, I agree with you. But we’re also looking out to the middle of week-2 at this point. This isn’t as stable an evolution as some guidance may suggest. Flushing out a vortex can be a messy sea of unstable equilibria. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 00z compared to 12z at hr174. One more shift of this magnitude and the east wind will start blowing at Rob’s house. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 So far the EPS seems to be in lock step with its operational. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Verbatim, I agree with you. But we’re also looking out to the middle of week-2 at this point. This isn’t as stable an evolution as some guidance may suggest. Flushing out a vortex can be a messy sea of unstable equilibria. Who are you??? 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Who are you??? I have PTSD. Completely lost faith in the -30C isotherm ever breaching the 3rd runway. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: I have PTSD. Completely lost faith in the -30C isotherm ever breaching the 3rd runway. It makes my heart hurt. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Phil said: Verbatim, I agree with you. But we’re also looking out to the middle of week-2 at this point. This isn’t as stable an evolution as some guidance may suggest. Flushing out a vortex can be a messy sea of unstable equilibria. I agree this is a very tricky evolution. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 00z compared to 12z hr258. Actually good trends, as deceptive as it may be. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: No what happened And that was a few weeks after the I-90 bridge sunk over Lake Washington https://www.google.com/amp/s/mynorthwest.com/150242/bizarre-lake-washington-disaster-struck-25-years-ago/amp/ 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Winter Warlock Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 I know some of these words. will just pray for snow 2 2 Quote Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 Yeah the wave axes are definitely improved this run. Much more continental influence, right from the jump even. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: So far the EPS seems to be in lock step with its operational. Nice improvement vs 12z. Much better placement than the GFS as well. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: And that was a few weeks after the I-90 bridge sunk over Lake Washington https://www.google.com/amp/s/mynorthwest.com/150242/bizarre-lake-washington-disaster-struck-25-years-ago/amp/ And that was in conjunction with huge flooding. I witnessed an old trailer park near Monroe being destroyed by the Snohomish River. There is often chaos around here before big cold waves. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 Final frame 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: And that was in conjunction with huge flooding. I witnessed an old trailer park near Monroe being destroyed by the Snohomish River. There is often chaos around here before big cold waves. extremes beget extremes. Historic heat, big time flooding. Lets through a once every 30 year winter into the mix while we're here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 This run was less progressive/more continental right from the jump. Even by D5. Usually when the EPS makes a systemic move early on like that, it’s indicative of a legitimate correction. Not always, but usually. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 Full run 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 EC ensemble full run: 2 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 The Arctic is actually the coldest domain relative to average at the moment. That almost never happens these days. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 2m temp anomalies for the next 10 days on the 00z ECMWF. The Arctic is crazy cold. It’s usually roasting up there in the autumn. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 I actually managed to pull off an average low of 33.4 over the past week. I certainly didn't expect that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2021 Report Share Posted November 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, Phil said: Lots of cold air to work with. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.