PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Looks like another trip down to the Sound as we clear off to see the effect of these winds! 

I’ll bet Redondo is fun about now.  

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Whoops, I was looking at Boeing Field. They'll be lucky to break an inch for the whole event. 

1.48” for the event here 

[Anti Marine Layer]

You can thank Hawaii for this one 

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I’ll bet Redondo is fun about now.  

Heading down now but looks like it already ended

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I don't remember ever seeing the wind blow for so long here. Been 3 days of non stop wind.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Heading down now but looks like it already ended

Me thinks the main event was probably earlier to it’s pretty breezy but earlier the wind was quite a bit stronger than now. We will see maybe there’s a bit of a delay in the winds. 

[ShawniganLake]

Bit windy in Vancouver now. 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Nevermind…Tacoma narrows gusted to 47 just a bit ago and the narrows bridge 51mph. Just got hit with a strong westerly gust here at my place too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, mtep said:

Was at Maritime Heritage Park (outlet of Whatcom Creek) when this last bout of heavy rain started. It got cold instantly. Was surprised to see seals swimming around in that mess. Really hope the rain peters out from here. 

I remember going there when I was like 6 years old. Looked a lot different in August 1990. 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Nevermind…Tacoma narrows gusted to 46 just a bit ago and the narrows bridge 51mph. Just got hit with a strong westerly gust here at my place too. 

Still blowing pretty hard here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After the first two weeks of November SLE's mean temp for the month is 52.4. Record warm November at SLE is 2016 and 1995 which are tied at 51.1. Given things look to trend a bit cooler over the next week, there is a pretty good chance we start to see that monthly mean drop pretty quickly. SLE has only had 6 November's with a monthly mean over 50. 1899, 1904, 1917, 1934, 1995, 2016. 

Will be interesting to see if we can flirt with yet another top 10 warm month, we are well on pace right now, but chances are very good the 2nd half of the month will be cooler, especially if any inversions set up. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Been watching the faithlife bellingham bay cam waiting to see Lummi Island, and its just not showing up.  Up to 1.85" on the day, trying to decide if we might get that last .15 to push us to the 2" mark....

[RentonHill]

Wasnt there a big cold snap in mid november 1955? Here's today 6-10 day analogs

[TacomaWaWx]

Pressure rise of 3mb in 50 minutes. 

[Deweydog]

I’ve always wondered why we don’t post lists of analogs for the current pattern as opposed to patterns forecast over a week away?

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve always wondered why we post lists of analogs for the current pattern as opposed to patterns forecast over a week away?

isnt that the analog for the currently forecasted pattern 6-10 days out? 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Been watching the faithlife bellingham bay cam waiting to see Lummi Island, and its just not showing up.  Up to 1.85" on the day, trying to decide if we might get that last .15 to push us to the 2" mark....

I have been watching that camera too... still looks nasty up there.   On the hand... Seattle just cleared out.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

isnt that the analog for the currently forecasted pattern 6-10 days out? 

It is. It’s a mean forecast, but it seems like a list of analogs to initialization would be more useful.  

[Blizzard777]

 See if video works…Puget Sound agitated! 
20-30 mph winds with some higher gust

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have been watching that camera too... still looks nasty up there.   On the hand... Seattle just cleared out.

There it is....an proverbial light at the end of the tunnel to boot!

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It is. It’s a mean forecast, but it seems like a list of analogs for initialization would be more useful.  

Would seem to make more sense to me. Since day 6-10 forecasts are kind of a crap shoot. I gave up on those analog forecasts long ago anyways. Generally we just cherry pick the years we want to see out of the list anyways

[Chewbacca Defense]

Another slide just dropped on I-5 northbound,  this time MP243. 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It is. It’s a mean forecast, but it seems like a list of analogs to initialization would be more useful.  

gotcha that makes sense. I think i misread your first post

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Would seem to make more sense to me. Since day 6-10 forecasts are kind of a crap shoot. I gave up on those analog forecasts long ago anyways. Generally we just cherry pick the years we want to see out of the list anyways

No doubt 2005 will be ignored. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Would seem to make more sense to me. Since day 6-10 forecasts are kind of a crap shoot anyway.  I gave up on those analog forecasts long ago anyways. Generally we just cherry pick the years we want to see out of the list anyways

I don’t think I’ve ever seen one that didn’t include a year where something at least mildly interesting happened down the road.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

gotcha that makes sense. I think i misread your first post

Nah, it was my bad.  I had to go back and edit.  

[MossMan]

Temp down to 42. Rain lightning up and wind still howling. Power has clicked off and on a few times but has not gone out for good…Yet! Outage map increasing rapidly now. 
.69” so far on the day. 

[SnowWillarrive]

26 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Bit windy in Vancouver now. 

 

What a drama queen 

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No doubt 2005 will be ignored. 

I loved most of December.

[Christensen87]

This wind is relentless, power has been out since 10am here in Kent. Lots of trees/power lines down. Crazy weather day for sure. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Westerly winds seem to be relaxing now after a 4mb pressure rise in 1 hour. 49 now and sunny nice day! 
 Pretty decent storm down this way with peak wind gusts around 50-53mph…strongest winds we’ve had in nearly 3 years on January 6th 2019. 0.18” of rain today and 1.48” for the event. 

[MossMan]

We are quickly making up for the last several dull split flow November’s! 

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z EPS was emphatically drier than normal for the rest of the month... more clearly shown now that the current AR event is wrapping up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z EPS was emphatically drier than normal for the rest of the month... more clearly shown now that the current AR event is wrapping up.

Hopefully this improves in coming days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big GFS run coming up. 

[Cloud]

SEA hit 58mph. 

 

[MossMan]

Well defined line of clearing to the west looking out my very dirty weather window at work. Outage numbers still going up. 

[Blizzard777]

Yikes 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Yikes 

That’ll be freezing spray in a month!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That’ll be freezing spray in a month!

Time traveler!!