PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is all in for the double bottom cold shot.  It's going to be noticeably chilly next week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Been there. I actually don’t know my password now. I just never sign out. 

Ditto. My password remembers me.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Yikes

Indeed.  As I've mentioned before major flooding on the Skagit is like a crystal ball foretelling major cold waves coming.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Ditto. My password remembers me.

Until you get a new phone or computer!  

[North_County]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Normal rain storm. 

For some people.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6

Just a bit of amplitude on that block.

[snow_wizard]

I think I know the reason for the Skagit River floods being so likely to lead to major cold.  For that river to flood big time the trajectory has to be almost westerly.  SW flow AR events don't do it for that river.  It didn't even flood that bad in 1933.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6

Let’s see if that trough bails like it does on the CMC and GFS

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Let’s see if that trough bails like it does on the CMC and GFS

It might, but it's all unfolding beautifully for the big picture.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wiz you are in rare form tonight. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  As I've mentioned before major flooding on the Skagit is like a crystal ball foretelling major cold waves coming.

Recently... there was significant flooding on the Skagit in November of 2014, 2015, and 2017.     

[Slushy Inch]

Not bad!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 That's an improvement

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not for the interior.

I don't live there. 

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, North_County said:

For some people.

I don't live there. 

[Gradient Keeper]

[snow_wizard]

For some reason the radar is massively understating the rain going on here.

[ShawniganLake]

Next week is still looking pretty chilly. Decent warning shot next weekend 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I don't live there. 

You are kind of having tunnel vision for the region as a whole though.

[Kolk1604]

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7.5 Chilly

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For some reason the radar is massively understating the rain going on here.

Warm front coming through now... its a wind swept heavy mist here.     Temp has shot up to 59 in North Bend in the last hour.

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Finally! Was waiting for decent 850s...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Bummer the pattern is so progressive or else we would have seen a heck of a mid-November cold shot.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

I wouldn't rule out a wind event/storm. That is a very strong, sharp cold front with deepening wave/developing surface low.

[snow_wizard]

850s drop to -8 on this ECMWF run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Chilly, and VERY cold for @Kayla

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

I think there's too much baroclinicity for that to happen.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 Bummer the pattern is so progressive or else we would have seen a heck of a mid-November cold shot.

For now just a quicky will suffice for me.

[snow_wizard]

Some really cold (sub -10) ensemble members showing up on the GEFS now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7 That's an improvement

C C Coooooold B B B Brrrritish Columbia

[GHweatherChris]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You are kind of having tunnel vision for the region as a whole though.

Nope, I live where I live, no tunnels near me at all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

[TT-SEA]

The troughier 00Z ECMWF solution prevents another AR event that the 12Z showed for late next weekend.  

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  The ECMWF shows Arlington already down to 21 at 6z on day 8.

[Kolk1604]

4am a week from Monday

[Gradient Keeper]

Good run. Never doubt the power of the MBG! Good things ahead. MBG

6z GFS in 2 hours 41 minutes

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For now just a quicky will suffice for me.