December 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

13 hours ago, Clinton said:

@Tomthe storm showing up on the GFS for New years Eve/Day, do you think it will eject in several pieces like it's being modeled or do you think it will be 1 strong piece of energy similar to late Oct?

I apologize for the tardy reply.  As I mentioned the other day, my superstition got the better of me and I decided to put up my outdoor Christmas lights/decor during most of the afternoon.  It was a cold and cloudy day (high of 31F) that felt like Winter finally, but unfortunately, I froze my hands off!  Lolzzz...I'm glad I did it tho, puts me in the Christmas holiday mood even if there is no snow OTG.  Maybe the snow God's will respond this year...speaking of which, in response to your question, it's easy for me to believe the New Year's energy will come out all at once in this type of pattern.  Given the fact that the STJ is roaring, the energy will be present, the blocking will be present, this all bodes well for a major wound up system.  If I had to wager, I'd put money on a wound up storm.    

 

[Tom]

@jaster220, 0z GEFS suggesting a similar imaginary "wall" that blocks any snow to fall below the "cheddar curtain" through the end of the month.  Although, I do see some small shifts South per the GEFS the could potentially include some of us around here.  There may be a front-end thump snow with the 27th/28th system.

 

0z EPS singing a similar tune...the pattern that keeps on giving to those up north...

[Tom]

I haven't paid much attn to the SOI but today's reading and the significant drop in recent days would lead to the relaxation of the SER once we open up JAN.  Using this data, there is about a 2 week lag so we can fast forward the DEC 16th date to right around DEC 30th period.

 

The placement of the Strat warming will create a favorable pattern across NW NAMER once we open JAN.  It appears to be one that has legs as I foresee a dominant HP pattern shaping up across NW NAMER/W Canada instead of the major Trough/Polar Vortex that as been situated in this region.  I'm encouraged to see a hint of a trough that will try to "press" over the eastern CONUS using the animation below post 4/5th of JAN.

 

Finally, the 0z GEFS 10mb STRAT animation below will create a favorable Cross Polar Flow into N.A. that should have the potential to lock, esp if the advertised Siberian Warming does in fact happen as modeled.  Dr. Judah Cohen who is a guru in this wx phenomenon says that his model does show some interesting developments in Siberia later in JAN so this could be a precursor towards a later major SSW event.  I know this is days away but nevertheless, it is interesting to think about.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM coming in clutch with a Christmas miracle shortwave in Fargo. Hoping I return to some real depth as I had about 2" OTG when I left on Tuesday.

[GDR]

Don’t even bother looking at the GFS if you live south of the Cheese divide!

[Minny_Weather]

Political hacks.

[Andie]

It’s summer wear for Christmas.  
We’re used to it. At least it isn’t ice or snow. Driving is just a bear.  
75* today.  80* tomorrow. 
Christmas- 82* !    

[westMJim]

There is just a trace of snow on the ground here at this time. The overnight low here was 17. The official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 19. The temperatures still look to be above average for the next week or more and it sure looks like we well end the month of December warmer with less snow than average.

[Stacsh]

Unexpectedly snowing at a very good clip here.  Was supposed to be more north.  Could squeeze out an inch before it gets warmer today.  

[jaster220]

32 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Unexpectedly snowing at a very good clip here.  Was supposed to be more north.  Could squeeze out an inch before it gets warmer today.  

Yeah, I was wondering if you were getting some good stuff. Radar looked like it. still in the 20's even down here, and watching radar and hoping I don't just get "virga'd". 0z NAM had again bounced north with the snow shield. I noticed DTX has bumped up the snow chance to 40%. All positive trends

[tStacsh]

23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, I was wondering if you were getting some good stuff. Radar looked like it. still in the 20's even down here, and watching radar and hoping I don't just get "virga'd". 0z NAM had again bounced north with the snow shield. I noticed DTX has bumped up the snow chance to 40%. All positive trends

almost done at my house, I'm at work and it looks like we got about 1/2" in both places.  

 

 

[gimmesnow]

Cascade Mountain in Portage Wisconsin is still not 100% open. I went yesterday, they had the guns blazing, had one hill of snow about 30 feet tall. But it was under 32 all day and overcast, the snow was great. They think it'll be fully open by Christmas. I hope so, this year has been ridiculous, yesterday was the only day I really boarded so far this year where it was actually resembling snow and now that snow cone stuff, slush, or ice. I hope this can turn around soon, GFS is doing the classic last 3 days look great but it's always the last 3 days of the run, then it's garbage.

[tStacsh]

12Z GFS has a Chitown/ SWMI special to ring in the New Year.  How likely is that to happen?  lol  

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

12Z GFS has a Chitown/ SWMI special to ring in the New Year.  How likely is that to happen?  lol  

0.0% chance when time =  h240+

[jaster220]

aandd..it's falling apart as it slides east. Shocking!

[jaster220]

42 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

almost done at my house, I'm at work and it looks like we got about 1/2" in both places.  

 

 

You must've gotten a little boost as the front scooped some moisture off of Lk Mich. Gonna b flurries here at best

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

You must've gotten a little boost as the front scooped some moisture off of Lk Mich. Gonna b flurries here at best

That sucks.  It's all gonna melt anyway.  Soon, though.  I have a feeling once that arctic air breaks loose, it's going to be a fun two weeks of winter.  

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0.0% chance when time =  h240+

Wager you a steak on it.

[tStacsh]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0.0% chance when time =  h240+

IF this happened, I would be AN in snowfall in a matter of a few days.  The cold air it's showing behind the system and we would be measuring snow in feet here in WMI.  It's a pipe dream, I know, but at least its showing something.  If it's just right 1 out of 20 times I'll take it.  I'm not holding my breath though as the next run it will be gone.  

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

CMC has a warmer version of the storm. We have something to watch.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I'll take something to watch over what we've had all month.  I just love this gif.  Seemed like an opportune time to break out. 

Agreed. We haven't even been trolled by the models this year.

[jaster220]

37 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CMC has a warmer version of the storm. We have something to watch.

I guess I'm just tired of "watching" and nothing working out. Which I know sounds bad from a guy who stumble lucked-out with 3 decent snow hits already. I've just grown allergic to the d10+ mega teases. That to me is NOT something to watch. I rather wish we had d5 max models and we were waiting for something to "pop" onto that screen knowing it actually meant something. k, end of rant, back to tracking/watching phantom snowstorms..

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I guess I'm just tired of "watching" and nothing working out. Which I know sounds bad from a guy who stumble lucked-out with 3 decent snow hits already. I've just grown allergic to the d10+ mega teases. That to me is NOT something to watch. I rather wish we had d5 max models and we were waiting for something to "pop" onto that screen knowing it actually meant something. k, end of rant, back to tracking/watching phantom snowstorms..

Hang in there buddy.

[Clinton]

17 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Right?  Usually we've at least had several poofs and busts by now. 

For as much crap as the GFS gets around here, it's done a good job inside 10 days. I just haven't liked what its had to say most of the time.

[bud2380]

Euro with a NYD storm.  Nice soaking rain again here.  If the Euro is right, Minnesota is going to get buried over the next 10 days.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

And, we have the new cut-off for fringe events here..

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1256 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-232100-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,
Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,
Pontiac, and Warren
1256 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021

...Slick Roadways This Afternoon and Early Evening...

An initial wave of snowfall is expanding across portions of
Southeast Michigan this afternoon. Areas along and north of the
M-59 corridor can expect accumulations of a coating to around an
inch over the next three to four hours. Given temperatures in the
upper 20s to around 30F, snow may accumulate on untreated roads.
Drivers should remain alert to some slippery road conditions and
exercise caution, especially during the evening commute.

---

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Hang in there buddy.

I'd say "I'm hanging in there for my 2 weeks of winter" same as last year. But I may have already had my winter last month, lol

[Niko]

Snowing at a good clip now. Everything is snow covered w temps near 30F. Too bad its short-lived. It sure does look festive out there, thats for sure. Tis the season y'all.

Light Snow Fog/Mist

31°F

-1°C

 

[jaster220]

46 minutes ago, Niko said:

Snowing at a good clip now. Everything is snow covered w temps near 30F. Too bad its short-lived. It sure does look festive out there, thats for sure. Tis the season y'all.

Light Snow Fog/Mist

31°F

-1°C

 

'grats amigo! Nothing across town here, but at least I saw a few min's worth of mood flakes yesterday morning.

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I guess I'm just tired of "watching" and nothing working out. Which I know sounds bad from a guy who stumble lucked-out with 3 decent snow hits already. I've just grown allergic to the d10+ mega teases. That to me is NOT something to watch. I rather wish we had d5 max models and we were waiting for something to "pop" onto that screen knowing it actually meant something. k, end of rant, back to tracking/watching phantom snowstorms..

By no way I'm saying this could end as a big dog, but at least there is consensus on the models, as of now, of a storm somewhere in the midwest during New Year's weekend.  The way it's going, I'd like to be 100 miles north of my location this winter, but tis the trend these days.  Can't remember my last 4" plus surprise LES event.  Can't remember the last time a big Artic front blasted through the lakes.  I'm sure there were one or two littles ones last year, but man do I miss those big events. Flash Freeze, whiteouts, fluffy cold LES snow adding up in 18 degree weather.   So if I have to look for hope or a trend 9/10 days out, I'm hanging on them like the sucker I am.  

 

We all can dream!  Lock it in!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like the weather pattern continues to be boring out there.

[jaster220]

35 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

By no way I'm saying this could end as a big dog, but at least there is consensus on the models, as of now, of a storm somewhere in the midwest during New Year's weekend.  The way it's going, I'd like to be 100 miles north of my location this winter, but tis the trend these days.  Can't remember my last 4" plus surprise LES event.  Can't remember the last time a big Artic front blasted through the lakes.  I'm sure there were one or two littles ones last year, but man do I miss those big events. Flash Freeze, whiteouts, fluffy cold LES snow adding up in 18 degree weather.   So if I have to look for hope or a trend 9/10 days out, I'm hanging on them like the sucker I am.  

 

We all can dream!  Lock it in!

See that Euro map somebody splashed as to why I'm "not feeling it" from this range. My holiday $$'s on the NY weekend storm (and I'm not implying "no storm") goes right over Chicago's head. Which, would/should still give GR a decent backside LE score. Especially if there's any decent CF involved. I don't buy the GFS's track, nor all that GREEN stuff in SMI. IF we ever do get a shake-up of the connections and arctic blast, then my worry is it goes all the way to the Atlantic and the EC weenies start getting coastal bombs. But, one bust at a time with this season. Things should be shifting in a positive way, just very gun-shy at the moment to buy into the "perfect track scenario" the GFS is always dangling.

[jaster220]

31 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks like the weather pattern continues to be boring out there.

What gave it away???

[Anti Marine Layer]

46 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

What gave it away???

Forecast models

[Niko]

4 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks like the weather pattern continues to be boring out there.

Not here...I've been getting snow from time to time and looks very festive outside. Not a lot of snow, but snow is otg. Other parts, yes, thanks to the raging ser.

[Niko]

Man, check out that hole in the middle.....

[Bellona]

Every time I see the GFS paint me with 30+ inches....

[jaster220]

What I liked about NMI winter. Not a matter of if, just a matter of when. Many reports in the 3-6" range from today's little wave. This must've been nice:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
546 PM EST THU DEC 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     SNOW             3 S SUTTONS BAY         44.94N 85.65W
12/23/2021  E3.5 INCH        LEELANAU           MI   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF 3.5 INCHES OVER PAST
            4 HOURS.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

That SE ridge just isn't going to give in this year.  Every time there's a forecast for true cold to come sliding south, the models reverse course as that SE ridge rears it's ugly head.  It's like a dam.  It just ain't happenin' this year folks.  12z Thursday vs. 00z Friday.

 

Sadly, this is becoming more and more of a real possibility, esp if the MJO is going to stay in Phase 7.  Euro weeklies flipped and so did the rest of the models.  Geeze, if its not one thing its the other....

 

The CFSv2 for JAN is also starting to poke that D**n SER northward but it is also starting to "see" the Greenland Block.  Its really going to become a battle zone across the center part of the nation.  IMO, the southern Plains are going to have extended almost summer like conditions or Autumn while the northern U.S. is stuck in the deep freeze.  

 

 

[Tom]

I would like to wish everyone on here a very Merry Christmas and holiday!  It's a special time of year as we spend time with family and friends.  I pray for everyone's health and well being as that is the one of the most important things in life...as is Family.  Blessings to you all!  #LetItSnow...

 

 

Speaking of Snow, it'll be snowing elsewhere across our nation and one place that I visited this past Labor Day weekend was over in the North Rim of the Grand Canyon.  The forecast has 1-2 Feet of snow up in Jacob Lake.  I remember the drive like it was yesterday and I recall thinking back then what it would look like with snow blanketing that region.  Well, they certainly are going to get blessed with White Gold right on time for the Christmas Holiday.  That also goes for the Ski resorts across the state of AZ.

 

Boy, would I love to be out in the mountains of Aspen and Vail during this festive holiday.  That is one of my bucket list of things to do and spend time up in the mountains during the holidays.  What a timely snowstorm...I mean, you can't script it better than this.  Mother Nature dialing it up just in time for Christmas....

Quote

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
819 PM MST Thu Dec 23 2021

COZ009-010-018-241300-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-211225T1800Z/
Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Aspen, Vail, Snowmass, Telluride, Ouray,
and Lake City
819 PM MST Thu Dec 23 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 20 inches with local amounts in excess of 2 feet. Winds
  gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains, Grand and Battlement
  Mesas and Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys.

* WHEN...Snow heavy at times will continue overnight and Friday
  with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Snow will
  decrease in intensity Friday night, but continue into Saturday
  morning.