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December 2021 Observations and Discussion

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

LOL @ GFS for Saturday night. I'd be getting snowed-in at my Sis's place if this came true.

image.png.90e82a5d0e4e4e73893fac0186bc87f3.png

 

"The Christmas Miracle" 😃

That snowshield needs to come south 1 county and I'm in the game bud!! Lets see what happens....

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Clinton
Clinton

First time my cows have ever gone for a dip on Christmas Eve. 

Minny_Weather
Minny_Weather

Well, NC isn't happening. I got a better job offer in St. Paul, so I'm moving there instead. I get to stay in this subforum, yay!

Minny_Weather
Minny_Weather

Everything is fresh in this pic, besides the piles which are left over from the mid-November systems. Believe this is about an inch of very wet snow. Good bonus.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Right now we will take moisture anyway we can get it.  But things look to be changing fast in a good way and these rainers may be snowers lol by New Years Eve/Day.

Guess I'm forgetting how dry it's been SW of here. There's rumors we could see a "period" of more favorable conditions for snow so here's to a chance for both of us to get in the action!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Posted
2 hours ago, GDR said:

It was a between 2.56 and 2.63 in Chicago during that time.

Prob the city proper, not the burbs or if you buy at Costco...it was somewhere below $2.50/gal iirc...remember, those are Cook county or rather "CROOK County" prices...higher taxes in the city.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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It isn't looking promising for those of us who are below the WI/IL border to see any snowfall of significance through year's end...will this pattern ever break???

2.png

 

The all-important MJO just doesn't want to exit Phase 7 quick enough...if its not one thing, its the other...man, it just feels like every year we struggle to get things to align in order to see some winter.

But...is there some friggin' hope as we open the New Year??  The missing ingredient we need most is the cold and tonights 0z EPS suggesting it "presses" as we open up 2022 but to what extent?  I'm not worried about storm action bc nearly every model is lock steady that a SW Flow is firing up and not going away anytime soon.  

1.gif

 

@someweatherdude,  the resiliency of the Aleutian Ridge appears to become a Long Term Long Wave pattern in the N PAC that ain't going away anytime soon.  I personally think this will be the pattern for the rest of the Winter.  It's just locked in and there is nothing I see down the road that will change this.  Of course, it would be nice to see it slide a little farther east into the NE PAC but that is asking a lot from nature to do so.  In any event, if there are any signs of hope for those south of I-80, it is the placement of the mean ridge setting up to the SE of the Aleutian Islands which suggests the PNA to somewhat relax as we open up JAN.

2.gif

 

The warm N PAC ocean waters are aiding in this N PAC ridge pattern and the cooler waters hugging the NW NAMER coastline are like a "magnet" for systems.

image.png

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

Posted
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Believe it or not there is snow on the ground here this morning. Of course not much snow but there is a whopping 0.2" of snow on the ground. And yes the ground is white here at this time! The overnight low and current temperature with all that new snow was 21.  While there may be some more light snow tomorrow that still looks to be all gone by Christmas Eve. The CFSv2 is now showing hints of it becoming colder and snowier as we head into January.

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Up_north_MI Enthusiast

Up_north_MI

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The lake effect kicked in pretty good for some of the snow belts in northern MI last night. Just looking at the camera we have up at our place at Higgins it looks like a 3-4 inch snowfall and it’s still snowing pretty hard. Not sure what the weather is going to do up there moving forward, sounds like more light snow off and on till Friday night when it could be a wintery mix till Christmas Day then cooler air should move in and more snow should start to pile up. Should make for a interesting week or so of weather hopefully.

0EEF655E-37EA-44BE-93E6-2A8DD0477B3D.png

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MIKEKC Rising Star

MIKEKC

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Tom said:

You know it’s been a warm winter when you leave the gym and it’s 18F with a 7F WX and it feels like the Arctic.  Sadly, that’s about normal this time of year.

Tom, LOL.

Look at the new GFS....it has winter returning!!! (maybe not returning, but actually showing up!!) Let's get this white gold party started!

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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This morning's GFS shows a series of snow-producing systems moving across the midwest late December into early January.  It appears we are headed in the right direction.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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OmahaSnowFan Grand Master

OmahaSnowFan

Posted
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7.9 degrees above average for the month and 50s the next 3 days, "cooling down" to the upper 30s and 40s thereafter. Oh and no precip either.

Today
Sunny, with a high near 50. South southwest wind 6 to 14 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. South wind 6 to 8 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. South wind 6 to 9 mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Christmas Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 43.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.
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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

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Posted
4 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Tom, LOL.

Look at the new GFS....it has winter returning!!! (maybe not returning, but actually showing up!!) Let's get this white gold party started!

Lots to look at and discuss.  I don't think we've had a run of the GFS look like that all year.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Posted
4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

First time this "winter" I'm optimistic by the New year period on the models.  Even if we get a rainer to start, the cold that follows might be the start to winter we need here in SWMI.  So if I'm optimistic, that is a good sign.  😆

Could just be sauced up on the spiked Egg Nog, but hey, tis the season, eh?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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BrianJK Enthusiast

BrianJK

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

You know it’s been a warm winter when you leave the gym and it’s 18F with a 7F WX and it feels like the Arctic.  Sadly, that’s about normal this time of year.

Felt the same way last evening.  Took my daughter to see Santa at the Rosemont lights festival, was 36, and we were all FREEZING. 

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snowstorm83 Experienced

snowstorm83

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Back in good ol' Memphis for the Christmas holiday. First time since I came to Nebraska for college that I came back for Thanksgiving, so feels weird already being back! I had my layover at MSP, didn't appear to much snow on the ground at all. Probably an inch or two. The good news is some serious cold air about to move into Montana and ND, which I hope will eventually bleed further south. I return to Lincoln on the 29th and I'm ready to be tracking winter weather. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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The Euro continues to keep much of the snow across the far north.  The GFS has a big snow event across Iowa on the 31st, but the Euro has 50º and thunderstorms.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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tStacsh Mentor

tStacsh

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Could just be sauced up on the spiked Egg Nog, but hey, tis the season, eh?

Most likely, but the models are really struggling to dial in to anything in medium to long range.  So many pieces, but all we need is some cold air and some storms.  Looks like we will have that soon.  

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Bellona Community Regular

Bellona

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, james1976 said:

The DGEX is back?

If this happens I will eat my and everyone else's shorts! 

I also see now there are 10 sunspots in the disc today. Has not happened in 11 years when we were at the height of the previous solar cycle. Makes me ponder how upset the sun will eventually get. We can't survive another Carrington event without being violently thrust back to the stone age. Does everyone know how to garden? LolScreenshot_20211222-132742-624.thumb.png.a4d4157658e08445acd103d21823f4e2.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Most likely, but the models are really struggling to dial in to anything in medium to long range.  So many pieces, but all we need is some cold air and some storms.  Looks like we will have that soon.  

Well, if the GFS is leading the way. GEFS usually has a better (best) handle on things beyond d5. Haven't seen Tom posting those (yet?) for the 5-10 day time period. Guess we'll see, either way that GFS snow map looks much better for yby, while mby is riding the fringe. Might have to wait til mid-Feb again for a good hit here in Motown.

This was the craziest W->E gradient map I can ever remember seeing. I mean like due W to East like there's an invisible line or wall keeping the good stuff "just north" of Chicago to Detroit corridor. Oh, and love how it shifts south at the PA border and eastward SMH.

image.thumb.png.938705d8582df39a279e1897a82774c2.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

There was a some nice SHSN on my drive into work this morning here. Was very scenic and dusted up the ground for a bit. Just enough to remind it really is winter, lol.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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tStacsh Mentor

tStacsh

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

There was a some nice SHSN on my drive into work this morning here. Was very scenic and dusted up the ground for a bit. Just enough to remind it really is winter, lol.

Flakes have been in the air all day here.  Not accumulating, but a nice scene.  Got a dusting overnight.  

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Posted
1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Dang the cold air keeps getting pushed back on each run.  The models just can’t handle all the ingredients.   It’s gotta snow decently at some point here.  

2011-12 is an actual analog year, but even that Dec had a bit snow. So far, this month is more like 2014 and the snows returned during the 1st week of Jan (5th iirc). I remember the day vividly as my wife and I were on the west side of Kzoo and it was really coming down nicely. Jan of 2012 was actually a near normal snowfall month too. l'm hopeful that we get a decent stretch in January.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

2011-12 is an actual analog year, but even that Dec had a bit snow. So far, this month is more like 2014 and the snows returned during the 1st week of Jan (5th iirc). I remember the day vividly as my wife and I were on the west side of Kzoo and it was really coming down nicely. Jan of 2012 was actually a near normal snowfall month too. l'm hopeful that we get a decent stretch in January.

Last year was so awful. I don’t think I could  stand a unprecedented repeat.  So I’m continuing to think/hope that climo wins out and it starts snowing here.   

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