December 2021 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

Snow has ended here in the southern thumb, 3” looks to be our total, about 2.5” more then I expected yesterday at this time that’s for sure. 

Congrats on the nice snow! And thx for sharing a pic

[jaster220]

On 12/16/2021 at 7:28 PM, Niko said:

NOAA:

Accumulation potential will be greatest where the cold air can hold
on the longest (the low track again a big determining factor with
the thermal profile), with around an inch on grassy and elevated
surfaces possible across most of the region. Best potential for
roadways and paved surfaces to see accumulations still looks to be
north of M-59 at this time, and depending on rates, would not be
surprised to see totals closer to 2-2.5 inches where snow holds on
the longest.

I'll accept this snowfall in a heart beat.

Looks like the warmer GFS was again the more accurate. I call it "warm biased", but in these marginal temp scenarios where the WAA always overachieves, it ends up being most accurate. Oh well, at least the event happened and not a total whiff. Good on you and others that got some nice holiday flakes!

[jaster220]

@Tom

Do you remember Dec of '98?? At my home in S. Bend (facing east not south mind you), I still had one flower near my garage door fully in bloom un-zapped by frost(s) on 12-19-98.

That's tomorrow's anniversary date. Then BAM! what happened just a couple weeks later? The big bliz right at the New Year holiday and day after and my place had 18" OTG with drifts to 40" (city lot too).

We've had all these dynamic shortwaves. All we need is some decent cold (bliz of '99 was a seriously cold storm), and we could see something unfold in similar fashion.

Anyhow, just some random thoughts to go along with your posts above from this morning. Carry on amigo..

[Niko]

Looks like a warm-up heading into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day w temps in the 40s, along w a chance for some showers. Hope that changes!

[Niko]

[Stacsh]

46 minutes ago, Niko said:

Lol that was 3 days ago.  

[Minny_Weather]

The high today in Bismarck was 8°F. Tomorrow, it's going to be 41°.

I'm glad I don't live in Chinook territory.

[Tom]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom

Do you remember Dec of '98?? At my home in S. Bend (facing east not south mind you), I still had one flower near my garage door fully in bloom un-zapped by frost(s) on 12-19-98.

That's tomorrow's anniversary date. Then BAM! what happened just a couple weeks later? The big bliz right at the New Year holiday and day after and my place had 18" OTG with drifts to 40" (city lot too).

We've had all these dynamic shortwaves. All we need is some decent cold (bliz of '99 was a seriously cold storm), and we could see something unfold in similar fashion.

Anyhow, just some random thoughts to go along with your posts above from this morning. Carry on amigo..

Jaster, it is funny you mentioned that Blizzard bc I was thinking about it the other day while flipping through the models.  It brought me back to my memory bank when I was just 16 years old.  I was a Junior in High School and I remember vividly taking my dad's car (newbie to driving) to the gas station on New Year's day to fill up the tank.  Oh, ya, remember when gas prices were .95c/gal???  Oh, the good ol' days!  Anyway, that day started off great with a band of LES that drifted inland once the winds shifted more out of the NE.  That got me in the mood and as a young lad I recall watching the local mets on FOX and WGN really highlighting the intensity of this storm.  On NYE, they issued a Blizzard Warning and I remember the screen on TV flashed with a Red Warning.  It was a vidid moment in time and I think that is when I really fell in Love with Winter.

Here is a past radar loop of the beginnings of this long lasting storm and you can see the LES brush NE IL and the slow migration of this storm system...

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=10&year=1999&month=1&day=1&hour=6&minute=25

 

Dreaming of a White New Year's????  Can we do it again or something similar this year???  How wonderful would that be...

 

[Tom]

Well, well, well....lookie what we have here...first off, for those who will venture up into the Northwoods for Christmas are looking good for a special treat from Ma Nature....

 

Following this period, the pattern flips the script and our Sub will feel the effects from the "Nanook From the North" as the entire Vortex gets blocked up in Canada and will pave the way to make its way down into the Lower 48.  It was a matter of time, given the blocking and proper teleconnections, but for the 2nd run in a row the EPS has flipped big time colder and more wintry as we close out the month of DEC.  The trend in the model of "seeing" the snow bleed south is evident and I'm pretty sure we will see this continue over the coming days.

 

A New Year brings new beginnings???  I'm liking the relaxation of the PNA...

 

One of the coldest parts of the LRC which arrived towards the end of OCT into early NOV is showing itself in the extended.  I recall a major trough that became blocked up over Ontario and there were multiple waves of energy that traversed the southern periphery of the Long Term Long Wave trough. This was a dominant Exhibit of this year's pattern and I see it showing up in the modeling for the Post Christmas period into the New Year.  Things are starting to look intriguing for snow enthusiast such as myself.  How about a visit from the Polar Vortex?  That's on the table...no doubt about it...its amazing to me seeing the ensembles showing single digit high temps for an extended period for @FAR_Weather starting on Christmas for a few days and then the bottom drops for the extended.  Talk about an extremely cold pattern setting up shop for you up north.

Oh, the JMA has now come on board towards a quicker Phase 8 move...I'm waiting to see the Euro update today's run to see if it is following suit.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

15" on GFS here up to hour 240. Of course I'll be in California for most of that.

[westMJim]

There was around a half inch of snow on the ground here yesterday, of course that it now all gone. Even though the official high at Grand Rapids was just 33 with the warm ground that was enough to melt the little bit of snow on the ground. The overnight low and current temperature here was 29.

[westMJim]

In the snow fall department so far this December Grand Rapids has had just 4.2" that is -6.9" below where we should be by this date. For the season GR now has had 13.9" and that is a departure of -4.6" At Muskegon they have only had 0.9" so far this month and that is a departure of -11.9" and for the season their total is now at 6.5" and that is a departure of -12.1" Over at Lansing they have had 4.5" so far this month and that is a departure of -1.7" and for the season they now have 10.2" and that is almost average with a departure of -0.1" The bottom line is that here in west Michigan we are once again falling well below average in the snow fall department. 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Jaster, it is funny you mentioned that Blizzard bc I was thinking about it the other day while flipping through the models.  It brought me back to my memory bank when I was just 16 years old.  I was a Junior in High School and I remember vividly taking my dad's car (newbie to driving) to the gas station on New Year's day to fill up the tank.  Oh, ya, remember when gas prices were .95c/gal???  Oh, the good ol' days!  Anyway, that day started off great with a band of LES that drifted inland once the winds shifted more out of the NE.  That got me in the mood and as a young lad I recall watching the local mets on FOX and WGN really highlighting the intensity of this storm.  On NYE, they issued a Blizzard Warning and I remember the screen on TV flashed with a Red Warning.  It was a vidid moment in time and I think that is when I really fell in Love with Winter.

Here is a past radar loop of the beginnings of this long lasting storm and you can see the LES brush NE IL and the slow migration of this storm system...

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=10&year=1999&month=1&day=1&hour=6&minute=25

 

Dreaming of a White New Year's????  Can we do it again or something similar this year???  How wonderful would that be...

 

Those are great memories that stick with you. I was out of town visiting fam for the NY weekend where the storm did not get a bliz tag, so I missed seeing that on TV. Actually, I've never seen that on TV. That was my only widespread bliz as an adult and if they flashed that on the Tele back in '78 I wasn't watching at the time. Oh wait, I think the Dec '00 bliz was scrolled across the screen on WSBT in S. Bend but I had already caught the news via my NOAA wx radio when I was preparing for work that morning. Now, I don't even own a TV so I wouldn't see one if it happens. You'll have to screen cap it for me, haha.

I looked at SB. Just like this past Oct's endless warmth, the first 21 days were all above 32F, and most a lot above. The 1st cold blast hit on the 22nd, a slight relax then the real cold (-18F below avg) slid down just ahead of the bliz. There were some LES hits during the final days of the month (airport a mile SW of mby said 6.2") that were a few inches at my place. Then the Big Dog which the airport had as almost 19" for the 3-day tally. It remained cold and snowy until the 16th with a total for the month of 37"! By the 23rd tho, snow OTG had melted off to zero.

[Stacsh]

Predicting winter is coming towards the beginning of January wouldn’t be a bold prediction.  Of course it’s going to get colder.  I live in I Michigan and I’ll see some snow and cold eventually.   How long will it last?  Will we have a thaw?   Who knows?  But it’ll be a month already in with basically no winter.   It will really need to hammer us here to feel anything like a traditional winter.   

[Niko]

It looks wintry outside w a nice snowcover (not a lot) but still enough to look festive out there. Temps are in the upper 20s now.

 

BTW: Christmas Day here is looking very balmy. Temps could be pushing 50F. This also goes for some of you on here as well. Yikes! Ba bye snowcover!!

[westMJim]

Since 1893 there have been 105 years when there has been 1” of more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. There have been 22 years with no snow and a additional 18 years with just a trace of snow. In the last 10 years there has only been 4 years with 1” or more on the ground at Christmas and 6 years without. If there is no snow this year on Christmas morning that will be 7 out of 11

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Since 1893 there have been 105 years when there has been 1” of more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. There have been 22 years with no snow and a additional 18 years with just a trace of snow. In the last 10 years there has only been 4 years with 1” or more on the ground at Christmas and 6 years without. If there is no snow this year on Christmas morning that will be 7 out of 11

Much more snow in February has virtually replaced December's snows any more. I'm showing only one dud Feb (2017) in the last eight. And all 7 were above to well above avg for Marshall. We've also been on a run of huge November snows (5 of 9) that hadn't been seen since like the 70's. It's just an unbalanced cold season in this era. Polar Jet was scary predictable in former decades like the 40's/50's/60's. Now it's a warm earth era and it's become extremely erratic. 

[Hawkeye]

This morning's Euro has raised my area to the mid 60s Friday (xmas eve).

[Timmy Supercell]

It's not looking like it will snow in the foreseeable future, and it might be 60's again on Christmas.

I don't know how long downtown keeps their decorations up at Central Park, but maybe keep em up until we get one decent snow.

[Minny_Weather]

Definite north trend on the globals for the Christmas storm. I think it'll move back south, especially if the Tuesday clipper pans out here giving ND and MN more of a glacier.

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Much more snow in February has virtually replaced December's snows any more. I'm showing only one dud Feb (2017) in the last eight.

At Grand Rapids the snow fall totals in the last 10 years compared to the 30 year average. For November 2 above 2018, 2014. 8 below lowest 0.2" in 2017 the most 31.0" in 2014. For December 3 above 2017, 2016 and 2013 the most 37.0" in 2013 and the least 1.0" in 2014. For January in the last 10 years there have been 3 2019, 2014 41.9" and 2012 27.0" above and 7 below average. The most 41.9" in 2017 and the least 9.9" in 2021. For February at Grand Rapids like you said 7 (2021, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2013, and 2012)above and 3 below. The most 33.1 fell in 2013 and the least 2.4" in 2017. For March in the last 10 years 3 above 2019, 2016 and 2013. The most 10.1" fell in 2016 and the least a trace fell in 2021. For April 4 2020, 2019, 2018 and 2016 were above the most in April was 9.4" in 2016 and the least was a trace in 2012. For the seasonal total over the last 10 years 5 were above and 5 below. The most 116.0 fell in the winter of 2013/14 and the least in the last 10 years was the 46.1" that fell last winter. So in the last 10 years Grand Rapids has had a mean total seasonal snow of of 69.1" compared to the 30 year average of 77.6"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jaycee]

I took this picture of myself on December 1st after seeing the farmers almanac winter forecast, thinking that we were going to have a white Christmas: 

 

[Madtown]

5 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Definite north trend on the globals for the Christmas storm. I think it'll move back south, especially if the Tuesday clipper pans out here giving ND and MN more of a glacier.

hope so!

[jaster220]

Went out to get some things for the holidays this afternoon and accidentally ran into winter  Ok, so it was perhaps intentional. Had to see firsthand just how far I missed out on the "coating" I was hoping for. Well, it was just 8 miles north of me. 3 more miles and that's were plowing began (yesterday). Just 20 miles N of here, there's quite a bit of Lakes-n-Rec areas and you'd think you were in NMI, not just west of the suburbs, lol. Anyways, this one literally bisected the Metro Detroit area, with those on the north half doing well, and those of us on the south half missing by "that much". A little further north along M-59 it was a solid 2-4" evidenced. Surprised if they didn't hoist a WWA for a few counties up that way. I'm sure the roads were not good. Temps were solidly in the 20's with a nice overcast so it was real December day. A rarity so far this month. Saw some kids sliding down a small hill at their home in Milford. Good to see kids just out having fun with nature providing the opportunity with a little white gold. A few photos I snagged:

 

 

[Niko]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Went out to get some things for the holidays this afternoon and accidentally ran into winter  Ok, so it was perhaps intentional. Had to see firsthand just how far I missed out on the "coating" I was hoping for. Well, it was just 8 miles north of me. 3 more miles and that's were plowing began (yesterday). Just 20 miles N of here, there's quite a bit of Lakes-n-Rec areas and you'd think you were in NMI, not just west of the suburbs, lol. Anyways, this one literally bisected the Metro Detroit area, with those on the north half doing well, and those of us on the south half missing by "that much". A little further north along M-59 it was a solid 2-4" evidenced. Surprised if they didn't hoist a WWA for a few counties up that way. I'm sure the roads were not good. Temps were solidly in the 20's with a nice overcast so it was real December day. A rarity so far this month. Saw some kids sliding down a small hill at their home in Milford. Good to see kids just out having fun with nature providing the opportunity with a little white gold. A few photos I snagged:

 

 

Amigo..that is how it looks here in Macomb and just like you said, it certainly felt like a real December day today w temps not getting outta the 20s, along w a nice snowcover. North of M-59 did ok w a 2-4 inch snowfall. My area scored a couple of inches, which I will accept , no questions asked.

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, Niko said:

Amigo..that is how it looks here in Macomb and just like you said, it certainly felt like a real December day today w temps not getting outta the 20s, along w a nice snowcover. North of M-59 did ok w a 2-4 inch snowfall. My area scored a couple of inches, which I will accept , no questions asked.

KDTW never got outta the 20's during the daylight hrs despite zero snow. Marks only the 4th sub-freezing day so far. I noticed ice building on puddles and ponds.

[jaster220]

The back-to-back extremes here for Christmas day are just sick

And last year's 2.7" on the 25th was a top-5 event:

[Stacsh]

Haven’t shoveled yet this year since the couple times it snowed was not followed by any cold air.  A rarity.  

[Niko]

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

KDTW never got outta the 20's during the daylight hrs despite zero snow. Marks only the 4th sub-freezing day so far. I noticed ice building on puddles and ponds.

Gotta say, today for the first time, it actually felt like Winter here in SMI.

[Tom]

6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Went out to get some things for the holidays this afternoon and accidentally ran into winter  Ok, so it was perhaps intentional. Had to see firsthand just how far I missed out on the "coating" I was hoping for. Well, it was just 8 miles north of me. 3 more miles and that's were plowing began (yesterday). Just 20 miles N of here, there's quite a bit of Lakes-n-Rec areas and you'd think you were in NMI, not just west of the suburbs, lol. Anyways, this one literally bisected the Metro Detroit area, with those on the north half doing well, and those of us on the south half missing by "that much". A little further north along M-59 it was a solid 2-4" evidenced. Surprised if they didn't hoist a WWA for a few counties up that way. I'm sure the roads were not good. Temps were solidly in the 20's with a nice overcast so it was real December day. A rarity so far this month. Saw some kids sliding down a small hill at their home in Milford. Good to see kids just out having fun with nature providing the opportunity with a little white gold. A few photos I snagged:

 

 

Meanwhile, just a few hundred miles to your west we are still waiting for #realwinter to arrive...I was out driving around like yourself taking care of errands and trying to convince myself that it is December in Chicago.  I have to keep reminding myself that this is not ordinary.  Maybe I need to put up my outdoor Christmas decor and the wx God's will then deliver some Snow!  Lol, my superstition tends to get to me this time of year!  Seriously tho, it's about time the rest of our Sub get to enjoy scenes like your enjoying out there in the Mitt.  It feels like ages ago since I saw a beautiful snow pack.  I still remember what it looked like back in Feb before I left for AZ when there was a solid 10" OTG.  Glad to see some of you around the GL's are enjoying some wintry scenes.

 

[Tom]

The northern members are going to be blessed with a fresh blanket of white gold as we turn the page towards official Winter.  The very few who have been on the receiving end this year continue to get "hits".  

0z Euro...nice way to open up Winter for @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island @Madtown

 

 

[Tom]

As we count down the days before Christmas, holiday travel for practically everyone along and south of the I-80 corridor are going to be in pretty good shape this year.  Tracking a winter storm isn't happening this Christmas holiday, unless of course, you are up "north"....unfortunately, for a lot of us snow enthusiasts who are eager to see snow fall will have to wait a few more days after Christmas.  To those who wait, will they be rewarded?  Is there an "end of the year rally"???  Let's see what's shakin'....if I get my hands on one of those snow globes...I'll be sure to shake it around and wake up Ol' Man Winter so he can finally arrive for the rest of our Sub.   

Alrighty then, let's see if the trends are holding up for this week and if those + changes are legit or not.  Taking a look into the 0z EPS I'm encouraged to see more + trends.  Is Santa bringing down the tropospheric Vortex with him into North America??  Yup, I'd say so...

 

It is Not by chance that we see the return of the "Baffin Bay Ridge" as it is becoming very apparent to become a dominant feature right around Christmas into the extended.  I remember commenting on this evolving Long Term Long Wave Ridge way back in OCT when the LRC picture was coming together. This was a very important Exhibit to this years LRC and likely why Gary believed it would return in future cycles.  Like clockwork, it is returning and the models had zero clue about its return 2 weeks ago before they slowly began to "see" it.  Now that it is "go" time...will this pattern shine some "white gold"??

 

Let's see what the models are suggesting....the overnight 0z GEFS members are hinting at some more members to be included in the snowy picture through months end.

 

The 28th-30th period needs to be monitored closely for an interesting set up that could feature one or two waves to ride up a stalled frontal boundary oriented SW/NE from the S Plains into the OHV.   I'm hopeful  that the relaxing PNA and -EPO will press the cold enough far S/SE to include more of the MW/Plains region.

0z EPS for the 3rd run in a row showing the + changes...

[westMJim]

At this time there is no snow on the ground here at my house. The official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 29. Here at my house the overnight low has been 30 at this time it is 31 here with some fast moving clouds moving across the moon. The current mean temperature for December at Grand Rapids is 35.8° if it were to hold that would be good for the 3rd warmest December of record. The current forecast high of 49 for Christmas Eve would be the 11th warmest for any December 24th at GR and the current forecast high of 45 on Christmas would be the 10th warmest.

[Up_north_MI]

Pretty cool sunrise this morning here in MI’s thumb. 

[Madtown]

Tuesday looks good here...What in the world is goin on on Christmas eve and day....37 and a mix even up here? Where is our cold?!?!?!?

[Madtown]

Also if anyone wants snow, come on up and say hi!

[mlgamer]

Topeka weather summary for DEC so far (Dec 1-18)...warm and very dry. The beat goes on...

Temp anomaly:  +8.6F

Precip:  0.06" (6% of normal)

Snowfall:  0.0"

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Topeka weather summary for DEC so far (Dec 1-18)...warm and very dry. The beat goes on...

Temp anomaly:  +8.6F

Precip:  0.06" (6% of normal)

Snowfall:  0.0"

It's looking like we'll break another record on Christmas Eve.  This morning was the 11th latest date ever KC had a low in the teens.

Current forecast high temperature at KCI on 12/24 is 68°. Record high temperature at KCI for 12/24 is 66° (1955/1893).

[mlgamer]

@Clinton My NWS point forecast has a high of 71 on Christmas Eve. Pretty crazy!

 

[tStacsh]

Looks like it won't be too warm here Christmas eve or Christmas.  At this point 40's are likely both days.  If it's not going to be cold and snowy, I'd rather it be warmer if it's gonna rain, but it is what it is.  Best chance of snow comes Tuesday night.  Looking at an inch if it makes it as far south as Grand Rapids.  Then it will all melt before Santa gets here.