December 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Wheezer]

Need to start researching in the" what went wrong Department ".   For me , I would start with LaNina , although in the weak category,  it has been well coupled with the atmosphere, see SOI,  hence its effect are magnified, resulting in MJO drowning in the warm phases all fall and entering winter. Leading  to an unfavorable WPO/EPO combo.

[Jayhawker85]

Since a white Christmas is out of the picture for 95% of us i guess we can hope for a white New Years??!

[jaster220]

On 12/14/2021 at 8:06 PM, Jayhawker85 said:

Since a white Christmas is out of the picture for 95% of us i guess we can hope for a white New Years??!

It's white right now:

 

I realize it's hardly the only place with SN OTG, but it's such a stark contrast during certain periods like the one we're enduring. A relatively short drive north will have completely buried ground for weeks while we sniff around for any semblance of the white stuff. Gaylord managed to score 18.5" during the 48hr storm on the 10-11th. From a SLP that passed well NORTH of them. I need to look up how many snow cover days they've already bagged.

[jaster220]

GFS continues to hint at wintry options for SMI this weekend, but both the ICON and NAM kept all precip S of the border. So, we'll wait n see I guess.

[Stacsh]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GFS continues to hint at wintry options for SMI this weekend, but both the ICON and NAM kept all precip S of the border. So, we'll wait n see I guess.

Maybe, but it’s definitely an outlier.  Nothing says this will organize and move north.  Not holding my breath.  I will add though sometimes the best medium snowfall events occur unexpectedly.    

[OttumwaSnomow]

Today I analyzed my records with regard to snowfall and  revenue through  our snow removal  and ice management  since 2008.  Its not a pretty picture. We  have never had a  goose egg December.  But 2012 and 2014 were basically  next  to zero. But we've  never had a Zero Oct, Nov, Dec to start a snow season!!! Decembers  have become extremely  unreliable  for plowable snows. 2020 was saved with a massive  snow, sleet, FR  storm in 12/29.  Another surprising  fact (especially to locals) we  have barely earned a penny in March in 13  straight  years!!!!   January  and early February  have been fairly reliable.  Only 2 of 13 January have been duds.  Also its very clear in our records that a slow December  usually  is followed by a active January! But this current  pattern is very concerning,  its currently  34 days and counting  without  real measurable  precip!  The  massive dryslot from southeast  iowa southwestward through  Kansas is relentless.   Systems  immediately  pick  up in intensity  crossing into Illinois!  I simply  cant remember  the last low pressure  to cross Missouri  or Oklahoma,  demoralizing!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Red Flag Warning. Sounds a lot like California. 

[Tom]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

GFS continues to hint at wintry options for SMI this weekend, but both the ICON and NAM kept all precip S of the border. So, we'll wait n see I guess.

You couldn't ask for a better storm track for the lower lakes region...come on nature...work with us!

 

0z GEFS members looking better for the GL's and backside LES...favorable wind direction for SW MI peeps...

 

[Tom]

I see there is some talk on here wrt to the validity of the LRC or the cycling pattern.  This is good to see and healthy for the wx community to decipher and make their own conclusions.  It's welcoming in my book.  This is a new technology and I give major props to Gary Lezak who recognized this wx phenomenon.  In our Lives, in the Universe, The stars...literally everywhere, there are cycles...why not in the near term, long term wx patterns???  IMHO, it happens all the time when new ideas come out into the public and get scrutinized.  As they say...."It's all good"...personally speaking, since I was a kid I came to the realization that I am a visionary person.   Cycles stand out to me and always have.  It's not a coincidence to me that I got introduced to the LRC some time ago when I joined this Forum.

With that being said, the pattern is cycling and we are about to enter the mid/late Oct pattern that got blocked up in a Bigly way.  Overnight ensemble runs have come to agreement that the -NAO tanks right on the...drum roll..."Winter Solstice"...boy, could nature time this out more perfectly?  I've learned in years past that there is a delayed response wrt to teleconnections.  Typically, you have to wait a few days as the block sets up before you see the effects.  Well, last night both the EPS/GEFS turned colder and a bit more wintry right around Christmas Eve/Day and into NYE.  I have made comments in previous posts that the stout -PNA would be a dagger to some of us on here.  Who will that be???

Let's see what the models are showing....

 

Literally, every single teleconnection (except for the -PNA) point towards favorable conditions for winter to show up...but when?  And why not by the holidays??  The individual operational runs of the models are riddled with errors, however, I'm seeing better signals that just prior to Christmas there are opportunities showing up for the Upper MW and Eastern Sub.  Unfortunately, I don't see much activity farther west/south where there are growing concerns for dryness.

0z EPS members are suggesting a pattern whereby waves of energy ride along the extreme temp gradient pattern.  You think the models are going to have an easy time figuring this out?  Not a chance.  I tend to enjoy tracking these type of patterns bc I find it interesting to see which models get it right.  I'm anticipating to see a wave train coming of the NW PAC.

 

 

As we get passed Christmas, the models are suggesting the cold to press farther S/SE and include more members on here.  I read somewhere that the upcoming pattern resembles 2017 when the cold came and hit hard around the holidays.  It may be a few days later this year, but I do feel that the main players are coming back on the "field of dreams".  We can all sit back and dream of a White Christmas...instead of a Brown one...so let's see which model gets it right and hopefully some of us can get some white gold this month.

Is the PV playing ball?  The Euro says..."giddy up"...

Winter Solstice...

 

Day 10...its show time...I see you Siberian warming...Santa will be riding down from the North Pole on Christmas Eve...

 

I'll finish with this post as it fits the pattern for what I'm seeing for the New Year 2022.  What a friggin' blocked up N PAC pattern!  You see that placement of the Aleutian/AK ridge???  Following the LRC and BSR, I'm predicting a powerful system between the Jan 7th-11th...or...it could end up being a multi-wave/multi-day active pattern with a lot of cold air infiltrating our northern half of the Sub.  This may very well end up being one hellova ride for parts of the northern half of the Sub.

 

[westMJim]

Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 47/25. That gave GR a departure of +11 for the day. There was no rain or snow yesterday. For the month GR now has a  departure of +2.0 Grand Rapids is now below average in both the total precipitation and snow fall for December. So far it looks like around 0.25" of rain has fallen at GRR and the current official temperature is 49 and cloudy. Here at my house I had 0.22" of rain fall and the current temperature here is 46. At this time while the chances of a white Christmas are not zero they are not all that good either. The current long range guess for Christmas day is for cloudy skies with a few flurries and a high of 36.

[Andie]

A warm and humid morning today. 
69* and 62% humidity.  High of 78*
 

Rain will be coming  in tomorrow and 77* high. Not the Crisp Christmas week we usually expect.  But I’ve seen warmer Christmas season .  

Wind warnings all through the Midwest down to Texas

 

[gimmesnow]

The hardcore people who run Alpine Valley are open today, extremely rare chance for me to snowboard in shorts and a t shirt. It's cloudy and going to stay that way so it's not going to cause absolute carnage on the base. I guess there are some silver linings here.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Hawkeye]

The personal weather station near my house just hit 70º.

[james1976]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The personal weather station near my house just hit 70º.

Just crazy. 66 here with 77% humidity 

[mlgamer]

73 at my house with a 61 dew point. The skies are cloudy here which is keeping the temp from shooting up even more. Forbes Field near here reported a 48 mph wind gust in the last hour. The main severe weather should miss me to the north. It's all very strange to write these things on Dec 15.

[Minny_Weather]

56°F here in Salisbury, NC...

[westMJim]

With the current official temperature of 57 at GRR that makes this the 2nd warmest ever for any December 15th at Grand Rapids. The record high for the date is 60 set in 1971. Here at my house the current temperature is now at 59 with cloudy skies.

[Clinton]

I've reached 75 degrees, making it the warmest December day in history for Warrensburg.  Still time to tack on another degree or two.

[tStacsh]

Muskegon, on Lake Michigan has hit 61 degrees.  Record was 58.  Temps will exceed 61, the forecast highs here later this evening.   

[BMT]

Historic Day today: 

Record Highs for December 15...

Moline.........57 in 2011 *ALREADY BROKEN TODAY
Cedar Rapids...55 in 1957 *ALREADY BROKEN TODAY
Dubuque........53 in 1939 *ALREADY BROKEN TODAY
Burlington.....61 in 1971 *ALREADY BROKEN TODAY

Record Warm Lows for December 15...

Dubuque........42 in 2014
Moline.........46 in 2014

All Time December Highs

Moline.........71 in Dec 4 1998 *ALREADY BROKEN
Burlington.....73 in Dec 4 1998 *ALREADY BROKEN
Dubuque........67 in Dec 4 1998 and Dec 24 1889 *ALREADY BROKEN
Cedar Rapids...69 in Dec 4 1998 *ALREADY BROKEN

[Hawkeye]

It really feels great out there.  The moderately high humidity enhances the warmth.

[Minny_Weather]

As is usual, looks like I might score more from the Friday clipper than from tonight's storm.

 

[Niko]

It feels disgustingly warm outside w temps in the mid 50s and actually feels humid (here we are in mid December) and temps will be rising into the 60s throughout the nighttime hours. I guess this is the norm now w Decembers being mild. Now, get this, after the passage of the CF tomorrow, it turns colder, but it "STILL" remains AN, even w highs in the upper 30s the next couple of days. Also, temps are not being as cold as advertised for next week. In fact, it will be near 40F, or slightly lower along w dry weather and no storms in sight, unless something changes!

 

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

I see there is some talk on here wrt to the validity of the LRC or the cycling pattern.  This is good to see and healthy for the wx community to decipher and make their own conclusions.  It's welcoming in my book.  This is a new technology and I give major props to Gary Lezak who recognized this wx phenomenon.  In our Lives, in the Universe, The stars...literally everywhere, there are cycles...why not in the near term, long term wx patterns???  IMHO, it happens all the time when new ideas come out into the public and get scrutinized.  As they say...."It's all good"...personally speaking, since I was a kid I came to the realization that I am a visionary person.   Cycles stand out to me and always have.  It's not a coincidence to me that I got introduced to the LRC some time ago when I joined this Forum.

With that being said, the pattern is cycling and we are about to enter the mid/late Oct pattern that got blocked up in a Bigly way.  Overnight ensemble runs have come to agreement that the -NAO tanks right on the...drum roll..."Winter Solstice"...boy, could nature time this out more perfectly?  I've learned in years past that there is a delayed response wrt to teleconnections.  Typically, you have to wait a few days as the block sets up before you see the effects.  Well, last night both the EPS/GEFS turned colder and a bit more wintry right around Christmas Eve/Day and into NYE.  I have made comments in previous posts that the stout -PNA would be a dagger to some of us on here.  Who will that be???

Let's see what the models are showing....

 

Literally, every single teleconnection (except for the -PNA) point towards favorable conditions for winter to show up...but when?  And why not by the holidays??  The individual operational runs of the models are riddled with errors, however, I'm seeing better signals that just prior to Christmas there are opportunities showing up for the Upper MW and Eastern Sub.  Unfortunately, I don't see much activity farther west/south where there are growing concerns for dryness.

0z EPS members are suggesting a pattern whereby waves of energy ride along the extreme temp gradient pattern.  You think the models are going to have an easy time figuring this out?  Not a chance.  I tend to enjoy tracking these type of patterns bc I find it interesting to see which models get it right.  I'm anticipating to see a wave train coming of the NW PAC.

 

 

As we get passed Christmas, the models are suggesting the cold to press farther S/SE and include more members on here.  I read somewhere that the upcoming pattern resembles 2017 when the cold came and hit hard around the holidays.  It may be a few days later this year, but I do feel that the main players are coming back on the "field of dreams".  We can all sit back and dream of a White Christmas...instead of a Brown one...so let's see which model gets it right and hopefully some of us can get some white gold this month.

Is the PV playing ball?  The Euro says..."giddy up"...

Winter Solstice...

 

Day 10...its show time...I see you Siberian warming...Santa will be riding down from the North Pole on Christmas Eve...

 

I'll finish with this post as it fits the pattern for what I'm seeing for the New Year 2022.  What a friggin' blocked up N PAC pattern!  You see that placement of the Aleutian/AK ridge???  Following the LRC and BSR, I'm predicting a powerful system between the Jan 7th-11th...or...it could end up being a multi-wave/multi-day active pattern with a lot of cold air infiltrating our northern half of the Sub.  This may very well end up being one hellova ride for parts of the northern half of the Sub.

 

GRR's AFD yesterday mentioned that it looked like we were headed for phase 7 of the MJO, but a tropical system expected to gain typhoon status over the Phillipines was gonna throw a wrench, and cause the MJO to stall in phase 6. When it's just not meant to be, nature finds a way. (and vice-versa too ofc). Super frustrating to say the least.

[Thunder98]

North Dakota is looking cold in the short term.

 

[snowstorm83]

Lincoln hit 74 today, just 1 degree shy of the monthly record. The daily record of 64 didn't stand a chance though. That would've been the big story if there wasn't something even more bizarre occuring 

[Beltrami Island]

7 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

North Dakota is looking cold in the short term.

Cold? Seasonal is the word I'd use. Pretty average December temps there.

[Tom]

+ trends continue to show up for the Holiday week next week...could it end up being a Festive Miracle???  Let's see what the models are showing.  Last nights 0z GFS/Euro are now picking up on a storm system to eject out into the Plains and ridge along the thermal boundary setting up across the central Sub.  The ensembles are also showing increasing members of this scenario.

0z GFS...

 

0z Euro...not quite there but showing the possibility....with Arctic Air in toe...this bodes well for a lot of members on here to see some snow by the time Christmas rolls around.

 

I believe Dec 20th is the date whereby if ORD does not receive any measurable snow, it will set an all-time record.  This record may be held at bay if there is snow that falls on Sat.  Models are suggesting it may snow here but that is looking 50/50 ATM.

[westMJim]

The official high of 62 was reached at 10 PM last night that is a new record high for Grand Rapids for December 15^th Than overnight a reading of 63 was recorded at 4 and 5 AM and that is the new record high for December 16^th   New highs were also set at Muskegon for both the 15^th and 16^th and at Lansing the high yesterday fell just 1° short of the record but a new record has been set for today. The cold front has now gone thru and the temperature here at my house has now dropped down to 56 and yes it is still windy. Gust as high as 59 MPH have officially been reported at GRR.

[Minny_Weather]

A windless snow event on Friday is gonna be nice. Even if rates aren't gonna be all that great.

[tStacsh]

Looks like a near miss for light snow with the weekend system.  The beat goes on.  12Z GFS no longer has the Christmas system.. Well it's at least delayed post Xmas.  Looking now towards last week in December for snow?  It will change run to run, but this is the trend.  And always follow the trends.  

[mlgamer]

After all the craziness of yesterday, it is a gorgeous morning here. Clear blue skies, totally calm wind, no hint of smoke or dust, temps in the 30s. Very peaceful and refreshing outside! Winter can wait another day...

[MIKEKC]

Latest GFS does show cold becoming established in the pattern right around Christmas and especially after the 25th..

We'll see how this trends and hopefully some storms can connect with the cold. Lets hope for the flip

We can all forget about this horrible stretch of non winter if we can score a huge Jan/Feb. Let's get the cold into the pattern here soon and hopefully game on after that. 

 

NEVER GIVE UP!!!

Go Chiefs

[bud2380]

12z GFS pushes the Christmas-ish time frame snow event back to the 26th.  It's relatively weak, but shows a few inches across Iowa.  Then a strong system a few days later.  So hopefully these are the next ones to track.  Let's see what it shows over the next few days. 

[tStacsh]

The last 1/4 of the GFS would bring epic winter conditions to the state of Michigan.  Lock it in.  What could go wrong? 

[Niko]

Winds are gusting to as high as 45mph....under a mostly cloudy day. Temps are extremely mild. Some locales are in the 60s, others in the 50s, b4 they start dropping later today.

[Timmy Supercell]

Muggy today. Hit 70 and only seemingly dropped a degree when the rain started. Nice to have Central Park so close to the house. 

Third day this December it has hit 70 degrees or over. Had a 71 on 12/2. 

[Minny_Weather]

14 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Muggy today. Hit 70 and only seemingly dropped a degree when the rain started. Nice to have Central Park so close to the house. 

Third day this December it has hit 70 degrees or over. Had a 71 on 12/2. 

I bet it'll look beautiful there come Summer.

[Minny_Weather]

NAMs are way more bullish with tomorrow's clipper, but they also move the jack zone into SD so my amounts don't really change.