December 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

13 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Sorry to hear about the tornadoes down in Kentucky. Here the temperature rose all night and reached 58 just before the cold front came thru. And boy there were some big time wind gust with that front. At this time it is still windy but no where near the gust that came with the front. The temperature is now down to 48.

That’s exactly what I experienced around 4:30am when the front came through.  Lots of large branches and power lines down.  Thankfully, I have power.

[Timmy Supercell]

42 minutes ago, Tom said:

That’s exactly what I experienced around 4:30am when the front came through.  Lots of large branches and power lines down.  Thankfully, I have power.

Didn't have a lick of wind but at least we have no shortage of rainfall. Easily totaled several inches since I arrived. 

[BrianJK]

Unfortunately lots of preliminary reports of casualties.  Never good, especially around the holidays.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

I’m getting more concerned about next Wednesday. Still 5 days away but models have been pretty consistent…

[Anti Marine Layer]

Louisville had a high of 70 around midnight. Now they are in the upper 40s during daylight. 

[westMJim]

After a high of 58 here before the cold front came thru there is now a rain/snow mix falling here with a temperature of 36. That is a drop of 22° after sun rise. The next week looks to be almost spring like with forecast highs in the 40's and maybe a 60° day for good measure. For anyone keeping track the recorded high so far at Grand Rapids of 57 would be the 3rd warmest for any December 11th the record is 63 in 1949 and it was 58 in 1979 and 1899. The current forecast high of 61 for next Wednesday would be a record for that day as the current record is 60 set in 2015. 

[GDR]

Wow gfs is loaded

[westMJim]

This is from a local TV station on the power outages here in the Grand Rapids area (Kent County)

KENT COUNTY, Mich. (WOOD) — The storm system that created a tornado that wreaked havoc in multiple states is being felt in West Michigan through high winds and power outages.

At 11:30 Consumers Energy reports that over 126,000 customers are out of power. 

Storm Team 8 predicts these winds could continue through the afternoon, so it is possible for these numbers to increase.

At this time there is light snow falling at my house.

[OmahaSnowFan]

I know it’s the GFS but… it keeps being correct on no winter.

[GDR]

Euro says the same

[jaster220]

14 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I know it’s the GFS but… it keeps being correct on no winter.

LOL our Sub is the snowless wonder. Great stuff

[Hawkeye]

You'd think that it'd be pretty cold behind a strong mid-December storm that dropped 20" of snow in MN and produced a bad tornado outbreak, but it isn't.  We are actually above avg today.

[gimmesnow]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

You'd think that it'd be pretty cold behind a strong mid-December storm that dropped 20" of snow in MN and produced a bad tornado outbreak, but it isn't.  We are actually above avg today.

Yeah, I was thinking this. Usually when the weather ruins my ski hill the next few days are super cold and they can fix it really quickly by making snow. GFS says do a snow dance until the 19th and hope you don't lose too much snow.

[snowstorm83]

18 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

You'd think that it'd be pretty cold behind a strong mid-December storm that dropped 20" of snow in MN and produced a bad tornado outbreak, but it isn't.  We are actually above avg today.

The snowfall from around this time last year came up in my snap memories. Also occured in a bad pattern, but the following air mass was cold enough that the 3" snowfall remained on the ground for several days. 

[Minny_Weather]

1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

The snowfall from around this time last year came up in my snap memories. Also occured in a bad pattern, but the following air mass was cold enough that the 3" snowfall remained on the ground for several days. 

I love seeing past snowfalls come up in my snap memories. Only 2 months until I see the whopping 2" punisher we got in February 2017 pop up again!

[Stacsh]

Cold front blasted through in December and dropped the temp to an amazing 37 degrees.  Probably the coldest reading for the next 10 days lol.  Warmcember continues.   I didn’t  think this winter could be as snowless as last years.  But this could be a crazy back to back years of no winter in SMI.  Long way to go.  But it’s one of those “always 2 weeks out” pattern and in 3 weeks it’s. January.   So 4 weeks into winter and nothing.  Another two week long winter this year?  We’ll see.  

[james1976]

44 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

You'd think that it'd be pretty cold behind a strong mid-December storm that dropped 20" of snow in MN and produced a bad tornado outbreak, but it isn't.  We are actually above avg today.

I was thinking that when I stepped out the door this morning. Mid-December with a fresh snow cover and it was 27° and just felt mild. I didn't bother shoveling cuz it was only a couple inches and will be gone in a couple days anyway. 

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Cold front blasted through in December and dropped the temp to an amazing 37 degrees.  Probably the coldest reading for the next 10 days lol.  Warmcember continues.   I didn’t  think this winter could be as snowless as last years.  But this could be a crazy back to back years of no winter in SMI.  Long way to go.  But it’s one of those “always 2 weeks out” pattern and in 3 weeks it’s. January.   So 4 weeks into winter and nothing.  Another two week long winter this year?  We’ll see.  

What's odd is, it seems like it would be really active if/when it ever actually gets here. But is that just a tease? Like you say, the clock's ticking away now, and the more we have to ride out these "reloading" periods, the more of winter is chewed-up and you can't get it back. Unprecedented killer twisters and a snowless Chicago 2 weeks before Christmas. Neither are good ju-ju. Not at all. My heart is heavy with sorrow for those poor folks south of us. I gave to a go-fund-me site to help those suffering. Was the least I could do in the spirit of the season. Be well..

[OmahaSnowFan]

🌪🌪

[Tom]

Looks like winter is going to settle back in for the Upper MW/MW/GL's region right on time according to the astronomical calendar.  Now, what would be more "fitting" for the holiday season???  Let's talk snow chances...

While the models digest the blocking pattern, the trends in the modeling is heading in the right direction and the whole idea of "wait 2 weeks" is no longer going to be a concept to believe in.  IMO, as we move forward, the mid week monster storm that is going to track up through the Upper MW will be the trigger bc the location where this storm tracks into C Canada/Hudson Bay will become a central feature for the North American pattern.  This extremely powerful system deepens into the 970's and will ultimately get blocked up due to the Greenland Block.  As this feature sits and spins, it will rotate cold air down into the lower 48 for the remainder of the month.  This pattern that is poised to cycle through post 20th, brought the seasons 1st Frost/Freezes across the Sub back in OCT.  As I mentioned before, the stout -PNA/SER signal will either be the dagger or the trophy.  There will be an immense battle of the seasons and I fully anticipate to see a strong thermal gradient setting up across the Sub.  Where this ultimately does will produce a corridor of storms and lay down timely snowfall.  All the models show a significant -PNA...but...they do also show a significant drop in the EPO.  The EPS has dramatically shifted this way.

 

So, the 1st snow chances I see developing will be over the Upper MW/Northwoods of MN followed by a N stream system that will bring fresh snows across the N GL's region next weekend.  Then, we will have to pay attn to a southern stream piece coming out of TX and the Gulf coast region that has "eyes" for the MW/Lower Lakes on the 20th/21st.

BTW, who wouldn't want to be in the Sierra Mountains this coming week???  My goodness...over 100" of snow???  Where do I sign up for this??

 

The next snows are targeting @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island....

 

Then the "Solstice Storm" needs to be monitored as I'm seeing the EPS growing a better signal for snow...

 

Finally, is there a Christmas Miracle brewing???  Wait another 2 weeks???  Nah, just sit back and see nature deliver the goods that are coming.  Obviously, not everyone on here will see Snow, however, the chances are definitely on the rise and I feel a good portion of our Sub will see "white gold" during the upcoming Holiday week.  The nation is going to see coast-to-coast action come the holidays.  Overall, the general theme is going to turn more wintry and I say that with conviction.

[Tom]

Is the PV playing ball???  I see you....Day 3 Euro 10mb Strat anomalies....

 

A day before we welcome the Winter Solstice....as always...in timely fashion...

 

Could this upper level pattern continue into JAN???  It appears like it will...

0z GEFS...Siberian Warming is critical if this is to develop....thus, creating a Cross Polar Flow...

[westMJim]

Yesterdays official high of 58 at Grand Rapids was a tie for the 2nd warmest ever on any December 11th. The next week looks to be very warm by December standards and there is a chance we may set a record high on Wednesday. At this time Grand Rapids  mean of 33.8 is +0.8° and the snow fall for December is now 3.4" and that is -2.8" for the month and total for the season of 13.1" is now -0.5" At Muskegon they have recorded just 0.9" of snow fall for December that is -5.9" and for the season their 6.9" is now -6.8" for the season. At Lansing they are -1.5" for the month and almost average for the season at +0.1" The snow fall departures will increase over the next week. The overnight low so far at my house is 24 and that is the current temperature.

[GDR]

Wednesday is looking like a record With a high of 72 shorts mid December is crazy

[Tom]

25 minutes ago, GDR said:

Wednesday is looking like a record With a high of 72 shorts mid December is crazy

#365webergrillin’

[Minny_Weather]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

The next snows are targeting @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island....

I'll be flying home from Charlotte Wednesday night, low-key concerned about that flight. The wind looks to really pick up right when I'm supposed to arrive back in Fargo around midnight.

[Clinton]

Dry and windy conditions have led to a fire weather watch being issued for today.  Next week looks to set 3 record highs and the all time record of 74 for Dec could be broken on Wednesday.

It's good to see the storms for Christmas week showing back up on the GFS, there is some hope that many of us could see some snow on and before Christmas.  

[Clinton]

7 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

🌪🌪

That's concerning, instability will be a factor here I think.  In KC we are expecting thick clouds but if the sun comes out ahead of that front look out.  At the very least it looks like a risk of strong straight line winds.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

I'll be flying home from Charlotte Wednesday night, low-key concerned about that flight. The wind looks to really pick up right when I'm supposed to arrive back in Fargo around midnight.

Safe travels…hopefully it’ll slow down a bit before your arrival.  

[gimmesnow]

Looking at this makes me feel like we're being punished lol.

[mlgamer]

We could have a real wind storm here Wednesday with gusts of 50-70 mph in much of northeast KS. My specific point forecast calls for gusts up to 55 mph. From this morning's TOP AFD:

"By midday Wednesday, GFS and ECMWF solutions have 850 mb
wind speeds between 65-75 MPH. As a result, southerly wind gusts of
50 to 70 MPH are probable Wednesday afternoon across the area. In
addition, temperatures are forecast to surge into the mid to upper
70s."

[Timmy Supercell]

8 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

🌪🌪

What day is that for? Lately I haven't been accessing models myself. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Low of 25 this morning in Ashland, yesterday it was 60's when the sun came up. 

Clear skies now. Having moved from a considerably sunny town; I tend to like the overcast more.

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Is the PV playing ball???  I see you....Day 3 Euro 10mb Strat anomalies....

 

A day before we welcome the Winter Solstice....as always...in timely fashion...

 

Could this upper level pattern continue into JAN???  It appears like it will...

0z GEFS...Siberian Warming is critical if this is to develop....thus, creating a Cross Polar Flow...

Thx Tom, And getting a little closer to home with snow that's already fallen. Some small dbl-digit zones remain in N Lwr Mich, while the Yoopers enjoy plenty of 12-20+ inches this weekend. Nice swath from the storm across the MW too:

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

3 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

What day is that for? Lately I haven't been accessing models myself. 

Wednesday evening

[james1976]

Radar estimated debris lofted 7+ miles in the air from KY tornadoes. 

Mayfield photos are unbelievable. 

[Stacsh]

Medium to long range models are just depressing.  Flashing decent cold and storminess just to disappear and follow what’s been happening.   Follow the trends. And the trend is north.  

[GDR]

GFS says what Christmas miracle?

[Timmy Supercell]

NWS Nashville confirmed EF3 damage in Bowling Green from a separate tornado.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Medium to long range models are just depressing.  Flashing decent cold and storminess just to disappear and follow what’s been happening.   Follow the trends. And the trend is north.  

I'm almost inclined to say "we've seen who the winners will be" for the winter. Maybe not EVERY week of winter, but overall I think the flavor of our winter has been seen. We're stuck hoping blocking will save us. This is the new norm. Back in the day, winter just was, we didn't have to chase blocking episodes in order to see snow. November was a decent example of this, it just got cold and snowed. Anymore tho, November snows are bad ju-ju, and December's become a real crap-shoot coming up snake eyes more and more on the regular! I did enjoy some "replacement November" wx today tho. It was a day good to be outside, and many folks were. 

[Niko]

On 12/10/2021 at 12:22 PM, Clinton said:

Solstice storm you say.  Look at this, right on cue with the LRC and is being modeled like the Oct version.  With the blocking showing up I'm getting confident it will get cold.  White Christmas for KC if we can keep it on the ground.  @jaster220 @Niko you guys have had a magnet early on for some winter weather, could be headed your way as well.

Now that looks sweet bud.....question is....does it verify?! NOAA, fwiw, mentions it in todays 4pm package:

Yet another strong system potentially impacting the area Friday
night into Saturday (more wintry), but current indications is phasing
will occur downstream of the Central Great Lakes. Still plenty of
variability amongst Euro ensembles to make a call either way at this
point.