December 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

0z CMC very similar to the GFS with the New Years storm.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is now teasing something good for New Year's Day as well.  At least there is potential, if the cold and upper energy can link up just right.

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS going large with a share the wealth storm to open up the New Year.  Very reminiscent of late Oct storm you mentioned on this run.  Any chance it slows a little?

 

Clinton, this is the storm that should deliver the 1st "share the wealth" across our Sub.  The Euro was having its typical issues holding back energy in the SW but the GFS always kicked it out quicker and was consistently showing a wound up storm.  I think that's why it has the right idea since our pattern, esp the STJ, is on fire!  Does it slow?  I mean, it could but I don't see it slowing down to a crawl. It literally snows for 24+ hours in my neck of the woods depending on how this storm develops.  IMO, the flow is to fast for it to slow down any farther.  Maybe in later future cycles it will slow down, more so towards March into the early Spring months.  I think this is our 1st legit chance of seeing a big dog this season!  That pattern is ripe for it.

 

I'm very encouraged to see ALL the global models dialing in on the SW energy ejecting out towards "The Slot"...0z CMC/0z UKIE on board as well.  The great thing leading up to this storm is the Arctic Air will be in place allowing the ground to freeze up.  The lakes are all "open for business" and folks near MKE/Chicago could be also dealing with Lake Enhancement.  Man, this is quite the Christmas surprise to see the models all come into agreement overnight.  This is the first time I'm looking at the models bc I was out all evening at my sisters big Christmas party.

[Tom]

@jaster220, Jan '99 repeat???  Actually, this run actually resembles more of the way we opened Jan '14....that was an epic week over here.  Chicago had 2 major storms that dumped 10"+ in the span of a week.  If the models continue the positive trends for the Jan 6th-8th period, we could be talking a repeat scenario.  This would be one hellova way to open up 2022!

[Tom]

06z GFS coming in HOT again...don't tease me and pull me in....but my goodness, this system has everything going for it to hit a large part of our central/eastern Sub.  This run sorta showed it slowing down and wrapping up as it tracked up the OHV.  Interesting trends the past 12-24 hours...only about a week to go....should be an exciting week of storm tracking leading up to the New Year.

 

[Tom]

0z EPS dialing in on a much colder and active pattern to open JAN '22...legendary for the MW/GL's???  Could be shaping up for one heckova ride if these trends persist.  Gotta tell ya, I'm starting to feel pretty good about this pattern changing and locking in for a while.  The LES belts should be seeing some epic snow totals with every round of Arctic Air.  This is something I would like to see happen or even experience bc what I think is setting up for the 1st 10 days of JAN could be memorable. 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS dialing in on a much colder and active pattern to open JAN '22...legendary for the MW/GL's???  Could be shaping up for one heckova ride if these trends persist.  Gotta tell ya, I'm starting to feel pretty good about this pattern changing and locking in for a while.  The LES belts should be seeing some epic snow totals with every round of Arctic Air.  This is something I would like to see happen or even experience bc what I think is setting up for the 1st 10 days of JAN could be memorable. 

Looks like the AO and NAO wanna playball.  The AO dipping almost to -5 on the 4th, this should really energize the jet and allow the artic air to merry up with these next few storm systems.

[westMJim]

While no record highs were set yesterday was none the less a very warm late December day. A high of 52 was reported at Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Lansing. That was the 2nd warmest at Muskegon the 4th warmest at Grand Rapids and the 7th warmest at Lansing. Down at Kalamazoo their high of 56 was the 3rd warmest.
With clear skies and a calm wind the overnight low here at my house fell to 20 and while there is no snow on the ground the everything is covered with frost here. At this time with clear skies it is now 23 here.

[bud2380]

Quick! Everyone post this all over social media since it's definitely going to happen!!

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS is SE of the OP run....12z Canadien is similar to the GFS...it appears likely we are going to be tracking a New Year's Day storm.  Prob start a thread later this afternoon.

[Hawkeye]

UK continues to be onboard as well.

[bud2380]

Euro came in weaker this run, but still has the storm.

 

[bud2380]

Brutal cold behind the storm

 

[Clinton]

This won't be a surprise for KC folks but all models show KC receiving a good deal of Frz rain and sleet.  This wouldn't be a shock ice storms here tend to follow large warm ups.

[GDR]

I’m posting this one!!

[Stormgeek]

Looking like I am going to get a good thumping tonight. Point went from 3 to 5 and is now 3 to 7. Curious to see how it pans out.

[WBadgersW]

49 minutes ago, GDR said:

I’m posting this one!!

Figures... Once I fly back to Texas all the snow comes. Hopefully you all get half of those totals.

[Bellona]

I know this is a GFS giggle map, but even on those, I can't remember seeing 70+ inches! 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Not surprising, but we're going to shatter our all time warmest December here

[Anti Marine Layer]

58 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Not surprising, but we're going to shatter our all time warmest December here

At least no more 70s for a while. 

[Stacsh]

I’m not excited yet for the NYD storm in SMI.  Unless we can seed cold air in more and keep this guy from cutting hard.  A.  If it’s stronger, It’s going to cut.  B.  It’s just the trend right now.    C.  Best case scenario would be weaker and flatter for snow here. Anyway.  The pattern temporarily might  bring us some snow.   Hopefully the cold air comes in after the system with follow up snow in some good set ups.  Long way to go and something to track.  The fact the models all have something consistently for 3 days now is promising.   
 

ensembles are the way to go right now 

[Clinton]

18z GEFS continues to work SE for NYD storm.

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220, Jan '99 repeat???  Actually, this run actually resembles more of the way we opened Jan '14....that was an epic week over here.  Chicago had 2 major storms that dumped 10"+ in the span of a week.  If the models continue the positive trends for the Jan 6th-8th period, we could be talking a repeat scenario.  This would be one hellova way to open up 2022!

Spent the last 2 days in bed with a fever . Your original post said it all, health and fam. Two biggest things we often take for granted. Merry Christmas to everyone.

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I’m not excited yet for the NYD storm in SMI.  Unless we can seed cold air in more and keep this guy from cutting hard.  A.  If it’s stronger, It’s going to cut.  B.  It’s just the trend right now.    C.  Best case scenario would be weaker and flatter for snow here. Anyway.  The pattern temporarily might  bring us some snow.   Hopefully the cold air comes in after the system with follow up snow in some good set ups.  Long way to go and something to track.  The fact the models all have something consistently for 3 days now is promising.   
 

ensembles are the way to go right now 

A big positive, it's not 240+ out, lol. I like your take. I'm riding the SE fringe attm.

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Spent the last 2 days in bed with a fever . Your original post said it all, health and fam. Two biggest things we often take for granted. Merry Christmas to everyone.

Get well my friend!

[Clinton]

34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

A big positive, it's not 240+ out, lol. I like your take. I'm riding the SE fringe attm.

I hope you feel better soon.  I'm right on SE fringe with ya, hope things keep trending colder for us.

[jaster220]

46 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I hope you feel better soon.  I'm right on SE fringe with ya, hope things keep trending colder for us.

GRR seems sold on a storm with SMI winners and losers tbd.

- New Year`s Day storm potential

The first significant winter storm of the season is taking shape
for the weekend as a deep western CONUS trough moves east and
surface cyclone tracks over or just south of Lower Michigan with
plenty of Gulf Moisture. Cold surface ridging is anchored to the
north, with model soundings showing heavy snow potential across
much of the forecast area as dynamical cooling occurs and cold air
is drawn into the storm. THere is still ensemble spread on the
track, which will pinned down better during the week.

[bud2380]

I started a thread for the NYD storm

 

New Year's Day Storm - The Great Lakes and Great Plains - The Weather Forums

[Bellona]

These storms popping up I did not expect! Had some nice flashes of lightning! 

[Niko]

Flew to NYC  for the weekend and man the airports are a mess. Had major delays w/ my flight returning back. Numerous flights cancelled. Anyways, had plenty fun there in the "Big Apple." Luv being there during Christmas!

Back to weather now..haven't had a chance to see what is going on, but I will catch up eventually and have my say. In the meantime, some snow coming here in SMI tanite, maybe some Ice.

 

[mlgamer]

@OmahaSnowFanWhoever did that chart must have been drunk.   Sub headline notes records since 1887, yet two of the years are 1877, 1875. Misspelled "Decembers" in the left column heading.

There must have been some serious climate change going on in the late 1800s...3/4 warmest Omaha Decembers then.

 

[Niko]

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GRR seems sold on a storm with SMI winners and losers tbd.

- New Year`s Day storm potential

The first significant winter storm of the season is taking shape
for the weekend as a deep western CONUS trough moves east and
surface cyclone tracks over or just south of Lower Michigan with
plenty of Gulf Moisture. Cold surface ridging is anchored to the
north, with model soundings showing heavy snow potential across
much of the forecast area as dynamical cooling occurs and cold air
is drawn into the storm. THere is still ensemble spread on the
track, which will pinned down better during the week.

Feel better Amigo! Drink some Green Tea w/ honey, or Tumeric Ginger.

As far as the NYD weekend storm..had no idea about this.......Ummm....tbh, I would not even mess w/ this storm yet...way too far out

[Hawkeye]

A nice thunderstorm just moved through Cedar Rapids and produced a decent amount of pea size hail with a few pieces up to 3/8 inch.  That's not something we see every Boxing Day.

[Stacsh]

They hoisted a WWA for GR area tonight.  After saying all day they wouldn’t.  My point has 2 inches overnight but I doubt that happens.   Looks like a mix.  We shall see.  This would be a surprise.  

[jaster220]

43 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

They hoisted a WWA for GR area tonight.  After saying all day they wouldn’t.  My point has 2 inches overnight but I doubt that happens.   Looks like a mix.  We shall see.  This would be a surprise.  

Gotta luv that office, especially at the holidays.

[Niko]

Tuesday's other system looks snowy as well.......

[Sciascia]

So what is it called when you have a light rain/snow mix with thunder & lightning? I’m having that right now in Poplar Grove.

ThunderMix?

[Tom]

The models are picking up on a sneaky wave riding up the thermal gradient this Thursday for parts of the region...

[westMJim]

Frist off yes it did indeed snow here last night. And there is 1.8" of wet snow on the ground here. At this time it is 32 with light freezing drizzle or mist falling. There seems to be a big disparately on any potential snow event next weekend. So we shall see. But keep in mind the system very well could go to the south of us here.

[Tom]

12z UKIE also seeing the sneaky wave on the 30th...

 

12z GFS...