PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[lowlandsnow]

High of around 25 in Seattle on the 6th

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jim says this is not possible. 

I was talking about up here.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Portland does really well not as much snow in Seattle though

Where do you see that? Seattle gets continuous snow fall in this run.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the 498 line crosses into NE WA at hour 360.

[RentonHill]

So three days of great 18z runs. Will 00z tonight make it three bad ones to follow? Interesting patterns with the model runs. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[snow_wizard]

Only some -30 type stuff in the north part of Central and Eastern WA on this run.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[lowlandsnow]

Now there closer but at hour 336 it was 5 vs 12+

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

So three days of great 18z runs. Will 00z tonight make it three bad ones to follow? Interesting patterns with the model runs. 

Not surprising with the crazy ensemble spread we've been seeing.  This run is epic.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Vodka anyone?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Forgot to post Portland…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 44/30 so far today up here. 

 

18z is obviously going to be an extreme outlier. 

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS is again even better, starts the party earlier. I guess that one CMC run wasn't crazy.

[Gradient Keeper]

I trust NOTHING both the 18z GFS Op and GEFS show as the past 2 runs have looked outstanding only to see the following 00z GFS run back way off. IF though tonight's 00z GFS is similar I'll be surprised and rather stoked as well. C'MON!!!!

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS has better digging and a better offshore block than the 12z.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

12 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Where do you see that? Seattle gets continuous snow fall in this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I trust NOTHING both the 18z GFS Op and GEFS show as the past 2 runs have looked outstanding only to see the following 00z GFS run back way off. IF though tonight's 00z GFS is similar I'll be surprised and rather stoked as well. C'MON!!!!

You are so right. 18z doesn't mean much at this point. Tough to accept, but true. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 44/30 so far today up here. 

 

18z is obviously going to be an extreme outlier. 

I think there’s a non zero chance the models just had to incorporate a delay of sorts. 18z yesterday had no hump on the way down. Today does, but will still end up good. 

[Slushy Inch]

Want some confidence that this is not a drunkle outlier? Look at how bad 12z GFS was compared to it's ensemble. The 18z is very much possible.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 44/30 so far today up here. 

 

18z is obviously going to be an extreme outlier. 

Looks like I'll end up 36/30.  Colder than I expected.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

This was stated before more snow fell in Portland BTW.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like I'll end up 36/30.  Colder than I expected.

43/36 here. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are so right. 18z doesn't mean much at this point. Tough to accept, but true. 

Really? It builds off improvements of the 12z.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

43/36 here. 

This pattern is exceptional for fake cold here.  Just the right amount of offshore flow.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are so right. 18z doesn't mean much at this point. Tough to accept, but true. 

 

[snow_wizard]

I just don't get why people so easily accept bad model runs, but ignore good ones.  Just plain odd.

[Slushy Inch]

OP 18z GFS is a cold outlier! Reality: 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Cancel winter. Pack it up. I’ll see y’all next year 

 

[RentonHill]

Would like to see better 850s vs 12z, not worse. Maybe better later in run.  

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

OP 18z GFS is a cold outlier! Reality: 

There's a lot of uncertainty right now.  There have been very cold ensemble members on both the EPS and GEFS today.  All anyone is saying is this isn't over.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Would like to see better 850s vs 12z, not worse. Maybe better later in run.  

The 500mb pattern actually looks better though.  The trough digs better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just don't get why people so easily accept bad model runs, but ignore good ones.  Just plain odd.

Because we've lived here our whole lives.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got really quiet in here once the ensembles started running...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Wouldn’t be surprised if we get a midnight low again tonight if the fog takes awhile to develop…already down to 40 before sunset. 

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Got really quiet in here once the ensembles started running...

Yep, everyone was waiting around on a Saturday afternoon, sweating, just absolutely terrified of the 18z ensembles. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Yep, everyone was waiting around on a Saturday afternoon, sweating, just absolutely terrified of the 18z ensembles. 

Got really active during the outlier run.

[Deweydog]

Gorgeous out!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably the worst ensemble run in 4-5 days. Trend continues sadly. Still some potential, but Matt was right.