PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

It's depicting those easterlies coming out of the Cascade gaps eating away at the snow. This model in particular is extremely overzealous with the drying effect of easterlies.

Ok yea I was figuring that. Seems a bit exaggerated.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[The Blob]

You know, I can't wait for another heat dome.

[NWbyNW]

Time for some forecasting from several cities across the Pacific Northwest.  The variance between the cities is impressive.  Some are snow, and some seem like spring.  Where would YOU like to be the next ten days? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[BLI snowman]

Pretty gross pattern on the Euro, in contrast to the much more stable high pressure on the GFS. 

Pacific air also invades most of Canada next week as the AL flexes its muscles.

[gusky]

4pm Wednesday

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, Geos said:

So do we just take an average and call it good?!

Euro will verify. GFS will bust.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty gross pattern on the Euro, in contrast to the much more stable high pressure on the GFS. 

Pacific air also invades most of Canada next week as the AL flexes its muscles.

Looks like some kind of super niño.

Also the PV is going into nuclear strong territory mid/late month. Could be a cringey midwinter.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Phil said:

Looks like some kind of super niño.

Also the PV is going into nuclear strong territory mid/late month. Could be a cringey midwinter.

EPS won't look like that. GEFS and CMCE sure don't. C'MON!!!!

6z GFS in 2 hours 38 minutes

[gusky]

7pm Wednesday. This is weirdly beautiful...

[SouthHillFrosty]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Euro will verify. GFS will bust.

[MossMan]

Hey look..Phil’s back to give us bad news after being absent the last few weeks! 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[gusky]

OK, I'm liking what I'm seeing...

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty gross pattern on the Euro, in contrast to the much more stable high pressure on the GFS. 

Pacific air also invades most of Canada next week as the AL flexes its muscles.

It gets there though.  Major inversion and high pressure at the end.  I think the big question is what part of next week it actually happens.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, gusky said:

OK, I'm liking what I'm seeing...

This is way better than Sunday night was.  Much lower 925s early in the game.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nightshift anybody??

[gusky]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nightshift anybody??

Hej Hej!

[snow_wizard]

I still can't believe how horrible the ECMWF is on the Whatcom County temps tonight.  The GFS picked up the cold outflow just fine.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Hey look..Phil’s back to give us bad news after being absent the last few weeks! 

I was here! My posts just got buried in the mayhem.

I’m also still in the hellscape (known as FL) with family. So I can’t get online much.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is way better than Sunday night was.  Much lower 925s early in the game.

925s currently at -1c over King County. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nightshift anybody??

Erry night!

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I was here! My posts just got buried in the mayhem.

I’m also still in the hellscape (known as FL) with family. So I can’t get online much.

Did you get any snow? Saw some stories about that online

[RayRay]

Theres our storm on Wednesday!!! coming over the Olympics!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nightshift anybody??

Maybe. I plan on finishing a few music projects, so I might be around.

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It gets there though.  Major inversion and high pressure at the end.  I think the big question is what part of next week it actually happens.

Definitely would make a difference though having a seamless segue into an inversion following the little cold shot this weekend.

Mixing out with a warm front and then rebuilding the high pressure would mean a much wimpier cold pool as opposed to the impressive potential the GFS shows (would probably be a week plus in the 30s).

[MossMan]

Sorry Phil but I have to troll you tonight! Doesn’t mean I don’t think you are a great contributor…But you were about as accurate as Matt’s yearly MLK predictions with this one. 
I haven’t seen my grass since the afternoon of Christmas Eve. 
 

[gusky]

10 minutes ago, gusky said:

Hej Hej!

Although I do have to wake up at 6:45 for a SPS ID check that I didn't have any say in scheduling. I hate dealing with SPS.

[ShawniganLake]

Abbotsford down to 24F. And winds appear to be shifting NE across the southern strait of Georgia and gulf islands. 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

I was here! My posts just got buried in the mayhem.

I’m also still in the hellscape (known as FL) with family. So I can’t get online much.

When do you head home? 

[MossMan]

Getting chilly up there! 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Abbotsford down to 24F. And winds appear to be shifting NE across the southern strait of Georgia and gulf islands. 

Still 33F here, but it's steadily been cooling down and the winds are now N/NW, hopefully this shift opens the door for some of the really cold stuff to spill into the strait in the next few hours.

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sorry Phil but I have to troll you tonight! Doesn’t mean I don’t think you are a great contributor…But you were about as accurate as Matt’s yearly MLK predictions with this one. 
I haven’t seen my grass since the afternoon of Christmas Eve. 
 

And I got 18" of total snowfall at 200'!! So far!!

[Gradient Keeper]

[The Blob]

I'll do nightshift tomorrow. I'm sure I won't have much to do at work. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1.33k WRF, very generous ratio, tomorrow should be interesting - 

[ShawniganLake]

Hope down to 15F. Agassiz down to 19F with a NE wind gusting over 40mph