Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Don't buy the euro solution. Will be too warm to snow in the great lakes region on thanksgiving/black friday 00z GFS stepping in the right direction up by you and Snowshoe...Euro may haves sniffed it out on its 12 run. I always felt that with the -EPO the cold would push and models may start showing that going forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 00z GFS is definitely not as warm for Thanksgiving storm. Still gives me an 1+" of rain, but cooler nonetheless. Will still wipe out what little snow we have left by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Holy cow! Thats a long duration snowfall on 00z GFS next sunday/monday. I know its a week away but something to follow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 This is a neat shot of the snow cover laid down by the recent storm... http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2015/11/Screen-Shot-2015-11-22-at-8.09.03-PM.png 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Holy cow! Thats a long duration snowfall on 00z GFS next sunday/monday. I know its a week away but something to follow.too warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Be nice if the 0z GFS pans out so we can add some more snow to the November totals. This stops at the stroke of midnight on the 30th. Not bad for us here in Iowa, and into MN/WI. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2015112300/USA_SNODI_sfc_198.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Need some colder air yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Next weekend possible Snowstorm starting to look interesting on the Gfs 6z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Next weekend possible Snowstorm starting to look interesting on the Gfs 6z850s are cold enough. What do surface temps look like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 850s are cold enough. What do surface temps look like?not sure But temperatures around freezing borderline probably another wet anow event as of now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Thanksgiving Day system still showing a snowy solutin for WI..1-3" for C/E...it ain't much, but enough to whiten the ground and bring the mood up a bit. I think in time, this may come close to being a 2-5" event on the north side of the frontal boundary. Even parts of Iowa might get a fresh coating of snow stretching back towards NE. Euro Ensembles have a band of 2-3" stretching from NE/IA/MN/WI. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112312/gfs_asnow_us_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 The warmth definitely has backed off a little on the GFS (if I remember correctly, the 00z Euro still had temps pushing up towards the higher 50s), but still just a bunch of rain here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 I'm thinking about starting a Thread for the Thanksgiving Day storm which looks like it will be a 2-part system. First part on TD/BF...then a separate piece on the weekend. GFS is continuing to suggest a large area of snow for the following weekend. Should we combine the 2 systems or keep them separate??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 I would do too separate threads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 The warmth definitely has backed off a little on the GFS (if I remember correctly, the 00z Euro still had temps pushing up towards the higher 50s), but still just a bunch of rain here.Ain't that a surprise??? GFS doesn't have you getting out of the 30's...watch, you'll prob end up getting a couple inches of snow out of this system! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 I would do too separate threads.Ya, good idea...the second system is more of a snowy system anyhow which would be fun to track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Even less surprising that the air behind that system has modified like crazy from the record breaking cold that the GFS was once depicting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Even less surprising that the air behind that system has modified like crazy from the record breaking cold that the GFS was once depictingYup, lack of snow cover prob has a lot to do with it. The models have always suggested that the Plains would get the brunt of the cool down. But hey, as long as it's cold enough for snow we can't complain, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 We need southern Canada and the northern Plains to fill up and cover the bare ground... http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201511/nsm_depth_2015112305_National.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 This Sunday/Monday storm is looking interesting. I can even afford a trend to the South for once! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 12z GFS...if this system can just phase a bit better it could be big. Models are trending rather nicely...ways away, but another system to track that would be a "share the wealth" snow. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112312/gfs_asnow_us_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 12z GGEM also with a similar idea...just fizzles out when it heads east... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112312/gem_asnow_us_39.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Quite a bit of moisture showing up on next weeks storm. Really close to being a healthy snowstorm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 These Hudson Bay HP's are going to be a common theme every now and then this winter season...seeding systems underneath with enough cold to produce snow. The holiday weekend system has a similar look to what just happened this past weekend, except, this will have some tropical influence as well as the GOM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Dang. If I were only 400 miles further west. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 12z Euro having trouble figuring out what to do with the energy that hangs back in the west. It sits and spins Day 3-6 near Cali...lol, while the GFS/GGEM kick it out into the Plains. Euro bias in play??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Not sure what's going on there. That's a heck of a snowstorm in NM and Texas though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 DMX is buying the Euro solution and saying that they think the H will keep the system south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 The Euro pretty much sucked with this past storm. Not saying thats gonna happen this time but it seems King Euro hasn't been up to par like it was a couple years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 The Euro pretty much sucked with this past storm. Not saying thats gonna happen this time but it seems King Euro hasn't been up to par like it was a couple years ago.True, we also have to take into consideration there isn't much model sampling down in Mexico and that tropical system will need to be monitored. Remember the Super Bowl Blizzard last year??? Models saw it 6-7 days out, then completely disappeared Day 5-6, zilch....than all of a sudden models started bringing it back. We just have to sit back and wait and see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 The EURO had several busts last winter for sure, and it was mainly concerning snow amounts - too low. The storm in a few days is looking flatter and the track seems to be pushing east with time. Now the GFS has rain to snow here on Friday and a high of 50° only on Thanksgiving. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Man, pretty big difference between the GFS and Euro as far the the warmup later this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 anybody check out the latest 00Z run GFS--- for IA it's much different (colder) then previous runs bringing FZRA then a little snow--- GFS for DSM--THU 18Z 26-NOV 1.8 3.6 1029 89 99 0.45 573 550 FRI 00Z 27-NOV -0.4 -0.1 1032 93 98 0.44 572 547 FRI 06Z 27-NOV -1.6 -1.6 1036 81 84 0.13 573 545 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 anybody check out the latest 00Z run GFS--- for IA it's much different (colder) then previous runsYup, I started a separate thread for that system... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Gotcha-- forgot.. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Some Tuesday odd and ends.Here in GR we are still running at +5.8°(49.7°) for November and while we will not break the all time warmest November record set of 46.6° we will none the less be well above average this month. While there was a lot of snow in the Midwest this last weekend it did not find its way to the Twin Cities and they are still in the running to have only their 3rd snowless November on Record. They already are in the top ten of the latest first snowfalls.http://www.weather.gov/mpx/LateSnowSeasonStart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Some Tuesday odd and ends.Here in GR we are still running at +5.8°(49.7°) for November and while we will not break the all time warmest November record set of 46.6° we will none the less be well above average this month. While there was a lot of snow in the Midwest this last weekend it did not find its way to the Twin Cities and they are still in the running to have only their 3rd snowless November on Record. They already are in the top ten of the latest first snowfalls.http://www.weather.gov/mpx/LateSnowSeasonStartIt's prob going to be a trend this season up that way. Unless we see some powerhouse cutters mid/late in the season, their only chance of seeing significant snows will be from Clippers/WAA snowfalls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 We will get our storms late in the season. For now not looking good. Postive AO NAO and soon EPO no bueno Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 We will get our storms late in the season. For now not looking good. Postive AO NAO and soon EPO no buenoLast couple days both the GFS/Euro have had individual runs showing a neutral AO/NAO developing around the 3rd with a neutral EPO/-WPO. That actually would not be all that bad to be honest. We shouldn't see the punishing cold and have systems continue rolling in from the west off the Pacific. Meanwhile, 00z Euro Ensembles really blossoming a snowy signal to close out the month in the Plains... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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