2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[shakjen]

Kaplan just had his live stream on Facebook. High res rapid model is well north. He thinks it could trend that way. Who knows?

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

What the heak does this even mean? I thought we weren’t even in it. I’m confused 

Look at the date, 1-26.  Back when models had a big storm for Nebraska and Iowa. Just a bit off.

[centralweather44]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

Look at the date, 1-26.  Back when models had a big storm for Nebraska and Iowa. Just a bit off.

Missed that. Haha. I was going to say. Only about 100 miles off. Slow year for snow removal services for sure. Bought time to shove the plows and blowers in the corner and move onto spring work. 

[jcwxguy]

6 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

What the heak does this even mean? I thought we weren’t even in it. I’m confused 

hows how far off cpc was

[winterfreak]

NAM is not good. Noticeably drier through 51 around here.

[winterfreak]

12 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

What a joke.  NAM moves south here and gets dryer.  Moves north and is wetter on its eastern flank.  God, I wish I could move from this place for so many reasons.  

Step away from the ledge my friend. Try to find some humor in it. That’s what I do.

[Clinton]

0z NAM

[mlgamer]

Guys, I'm calling ballgame on this for MBY. Here's how I think it shakes out for me...

• Winter weather advisory
• Forecast 2-5" (I'll get 2-3")
• Snow from Tue 9 PM ending Wed 12 Noon, nothing afterwards

Still will hang around to enjoy the ride with you guys that score big! 

[shakjen]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z NAM

Now the NAM has me back up to 8.9. Last 3 runs 11.2, 2.7, 8.9

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Guys, I'm calling ballgame on this for MBY. Here's how I think it shakes out for me...

• Winter weather advisory
• Forecast 2-5" (I'll get 2-3")
• Snow from Tue 9 PM ending Wed 12 Noon, nothing afterwards

Still will hang around to enjoy the ride with you guys that score big! 

You may not want to look at the 0z 3km NAM. Locations north and west of KC are very low. Hope they’re wrong. I feel for you. I know all about thinking a big storm is coming, then it changes direction or weakens. 

[mlgamer]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

You may not want to look at the 0z 3km NAM. Locations north and west of KC are very low. Hope they’re wrong. I feel for you. I know all about thinking a big storm is coming, then it changes direction or weakens. 

Yeah, expecting 2-3" could be too optimistic...lol. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

Yeah, expecting 2-3" could be too optimistic...lol. 

Hopefully you get that. That northern/northwest edge is a sharp cut off on all models. Have to hope it moves north. 

[Jack_GradStudent]

Hey everyone... Pissed at myself for just now getting on to check out everyones thoughts.. I'm back in STL for school, so I have been LOVING these trends all day... the biggest thing for me has been trying to figure out if these 2.5 qpf amounts that the nam and deterministic gfs are showing is overdoing it... and right now I think it is. I just don't see how 2.5 inches of liquid can come in the midwest during the winter.... but we will see what the ensembles show at 0z. Still got a couple good model runs left.... 

Jack

[mlgamer]

Well at least the 00z RDPS still loves me...13+ inches by 60 hrs. O Canada!! 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Well at least the 00z RDPS still loves me...13+ inches by 60 hrs. O Canada!! 

Wow it's juiced and hits all of us in the area, just once it would be nice to have this happen.

[Jack_GradStudent]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Wow it's juiced and hits all of us in the area, just once it would be nice to have this happen.

Probably better keep dreamin unfortunately

[winterfreak]

RDPS, RAP, and HRRR are pretty useless right now. Waaay to amped.

[Clinton]

0z GFS

[jaster220]

NWS offices doing up maps for snowfall or snow totals is a relatively new thing. I couldn't find any from the Big Dogs of 2014/15/16. So I'm quite certain this is the most I've seen for mby:

 

[winterfreak]

0z GFS almost identical as the 18z with the overrunning snows. South with main storm.

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

The SE trend tonight is a big problem, the 18z Euro mean shifted SE at least 40 miles.

I need the cold shifts SE to keep me out of .5 in plus of ice. This is a demolisher in terms of that as modeled.

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS

Not a fan of how it wimps out for SEMI. Just don't see all that big snows down to the OH river as realistic, lol.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not a fan of how it wimps out for SEMI. Just don't see all that big snows down to the OH river as realistic, lol.

The runs have looked good for you though, are you forecasted to get 8-14 still?

[jaster220]

Just now, Clinton said:

The runs have looked good for you though, are you forecasted to get 8-14 still?

NO. Latest map has me at 12-16"

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

NO. Latest map has me at 12-16"

Nice, hope Niko doing ok he hasn't been on much.  You guys look to do real well.

[Clinton]

0z GEFS

[mlgamer]

00z CMC has me at 16" at 48 hrs. Could it be right? Beats me...

[winterfreak]

Just now, mlgamer said:

00z CMC has me at 16" at 48 hrs. Could it be right? Beats me...

CMC is third worst among the “big four” global models. When times are desperate…

[Niko]

24 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nice, hope Niko doing ok he hasn't been on much.  You guys look to do real well.

Been super busy these couple days....but this is what they have forecasted for my area......

WinterCast

Late Tuesday Night - Thursday Evening

12 - 18 in

Snow

 

 

 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Been super busy these couple days....but this is what they have forecasted for my area......

WinterCast

Late Tuesday Night - Thursday Evening

12 - 18 in

Snow

 

 

 

My office has me at 12-18 but I think that will get cut to 8-12 tomorrow.

[Niko]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

My office has me at 12-18 but I think that will get cut to 8-12 tomorrow.

Amigo..from what I am seeing tanite, I believe that areas from yby through central Illinois, NW Indiana and straight towards S MI are the areas where most heaviest snows will fall. You are looking golden w this!

 

 

[winterfreak]

Wut? No way we get 6-8 here. Not a single reliable model has Saint Jo getting 3-4 either. The 3-4/4-6 line should be over KC with 1-2 from St Jo down to the MCI area.

[Niko]

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Wut? No way we get 6-8 here. Not a single reliable model has Saint Jo getting 3-4 either.

 

2 minutes ago, Niko said:

We shall see what tomorrow brings.  Good luck to all.

[Jack_GradStudent]

https://whatgoesonoutside.com/biggest-winter-storm-of-2022-so-far/

3 hours later.... I finally have a blog entry... check it out!! 

[Jaycee]

6 hours ago, metallica470 said:

Welcome!  I have worked in Tinley for years and just moved to Orland from the West Loop in November.  I went the entire month of December without getting a shovel.  Finally picked one up at the beginning of January haha

Thank you! It’s a big change of pace but having a place to park and not having to drive around to find a spot for an hour is a relief  

 

Also, I actually think I’m in a decent spot. I think this goes north last minute, even if it’s 20 miles Tinley is golden. I’m so excited!!! NAM even gives me 12-15” and riding the boarder of even more, I absolutely am not complaining!

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

NO. Latest map has me at 12-16"

Reeling in the Big Dog!  Trends are looking might fine for you and @Niko.

@Clinton I'm sure your tickled with excitement buddy...I'm rooting for you and those in and around KC.  It's been a long for you guys.  Lucky 11?  11 years since the anniversary of GHD-1....Go Big baby!

 

[Tom]

55 minutes ago, Clinton said:

My office has me at 12-18 but I think that will get cut to 8-12 tomorrow.

You should screenshot these graphics for memories...

[winterfreak]

21 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

https://whatgoesonoutside.com/biggest-winter-storm-of-2022-so-far/

3 hours later.... I finally have a blog entry... check it out!! 

Nice write up! Thanks for sharing.

[Tom]

Not sure what to expect up here...the razor sharp cutoff on the NW side has me worried as dry air usually always wins out.  The NNE flow could aid in supporting more moisture but that is a wild card.  Some of the CAM's are globals are indicating a good chance for Lehs/LES potential.  LOT isn't buying into it much.  For the last LES event we had, the models had zero clue where the band set up.  Who knows how this plays out.  You'd think that with 850's as cold as they are being predicted that we should see a decent Lake influence.  If we get any decent synoptic snow it will come Wed-Thu....Thu-Fri is Bonus Snow if the lake adds to the snow dept.

I'm curious to see if the Euro holds on to the 6"+ snowfall for ORD...

So, some CAM's are showing a decent hit.... @shakjen  was Kaplan showing the RPM model??  I haven't been able to watch any of the news weather forecasts bc I've been out of pocket most of the day.  The RPM is a very good model inside 48 hours.

 

 

 

The Canadien has trended about 50+ miles NW from yesterday's 0z run...

 

 

Tough forecast for N IL....it'll be one of those nowcast storm systems which are either it's Fun or Depressing...in a way it builds excitement to see how this all unfolds.  You guys down S and E of here are looking golden and have no worries like most of us up here.  It's been many years, maybe close to a Decade since the southern MW got nailed by such a big winter storm.