MossMan Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 It’s over. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: It’s over. Nah. It is what it is, a dry chilly trough. Probably similar to what we saw to close out February 2020. Best case scenario is a March 14, 2020 type of event. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Any guesses as to why our weather always sucks? In terms of airmasses it doesn’t get much better than this so late in the year. Moisture is the problem, need some juice to get sticking snow below 1000’ in late February and it doesn’t look like we get that. Maybe in some favored Randy type areas. Yeah, I’ll probably go on a hike out to green mountain or somewhere close by to get my snow fix next week. Our weather doesn’t always suck lol but then again it’s been a lot different the last few years up here. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Nah. It is what it is, a dry chilly trough. Probably similar to what we saw to close out February 2020. Best case scenario is a March 14, 2020 type of event. PDX had a 48/37 day at its coldest the last 1/3 of February 2020 wouldn’t be too hard to beat that unless models do a huge 180 the next few days Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awright-31 Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 02-16-2022 OBS for MBY High temp - 51* at 3:00 pm Low temp - 33* at 10:30 pm New precip - 0.00" February precip to date- 0.30" We have recieved 7% of our normal February precip 57% of the way through the month. New snow - 0" Winter 21-22 Snow to Date - 10.9" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Yeah this time of year…we need something like 510. Just not much precip either but should be good for the mountains and Atleast it’ll feel like winter. It’s plenty cold enough for snow. But this trajectory generally is pretty dry for most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, The Blob said: I forgot to mention that I already started some tomatoes and chili's for summer. I would wait on the pot plants as well, too cold 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Cloudy and mildish 50/41 here yesterday mostly cloudy this morning with a low of 41 again Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: Low of 37 this morning. Euro still looks pretty good even increased the snow coverage a bit…pretty marginal though. 515dm heights but the 510 line never crosses into western WA. Looks like 850mb temps go as low as -13. At face value that would be a top tier airmass for this late in the season at least in terms of cold. That said it’s always likely the models will pull back a little leading up to the event Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 12z GEM is frigid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Nah. It is what it is, a dry chilly trough. Probably similar to what we saw to close out February 2020. Best case scenario is a March 14, 2020 type of event. My kids looked bundled up the end of February 2020 and I was starting the garden cleanup on 3/15/20. I have no pictures of 3/14/20 so let’s just bring on the spring warmth then. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: 12z GEM is frigid 12z GFs ensembles look about as cold as previous runs too 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 35 minutes ago, MossMan said: It’s over. Not for Puget Sound area. We might score again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: 12z GEM is frigid It pulled back from the 0z though. Doesn’t dig the trough as far west. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 brrr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, MossMan said: My kids looked bundled up the end of February 2020 and I was starting the garden cleanup on 3/15/20. I have no pictures of 3/14/20 so let’s just bring on the spring warmth then. It snowed a couple inches here on the 29th and about 4" on 3/14/20. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Yeah 850mb temps drop to -10.1C at PDX for the mean on the 12z GFS. Really good stuff, my guess is we don't verify that cold, but maybe around -8C. Just very sparse moisture. Remember models always overdo the low level cold. Coldest day at PDX probably ends up 44/27 or something along those lines. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 One trend not liking is how aggressively many models seem to want to build ridging back in right after the cold shot 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Airmass also moderates much quicker on the 12z, models also moving away from that secondary slider later in the week. Makes sense given what a boring and mild winter we have had. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: One trend not liking is how aggressively many models seem to want to build ridging back in right after the cold shot The door to the Pacific does seem to open a bit later on, though things are a little splitty. This is the most consolidated system. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Airmass also moderates much quicker on the 12z, models also moving away from that secondary slider later in the week. Makes sense given what a boring and mild winter we have had. The upcoming event won’t seem good until we are looking at stats for it in 3-4 years Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The door to the Pacific does seem to open a bit later on, though things are a little splitty. This is the most consolidated system. This run bucks that trend nicely hope to see it keep up 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Overall the 12z is a step forward in the big picture. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: Yeah this time of year…we need something like 510. Just not much precip either but should be good for the mountains and Atleast it’ll feel like winter. Generally anything under 522 is still good enough for lowland snow now. It's just that precip rates become much more important as we get further into sun angle fun season. Which is why stronger onshore flow is actually sometimes better starting about now in terms of driving more snow opportunities in the lowlands. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Overall the 12z is a step forward in the big picture. Ukmet went satanic cold on the 12z. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 850s of -14C at Pdx 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: 850s of -14C at Pdx The UKMET was showing ridiculous temps for the December event too. Way too optimistic. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 UKIE is usually Dookie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 UKMET for the win! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Euro seems to be sticking to its guns with the cold. A notch or two colder than the 00z. It was the first model to bite on colder solutions and doesn’t seem ready to let go 4 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 23 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: The UKMET was showing ridiculous temps for the December event too. Way too optimistic. Euro looks pretty similar. Within a degree or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Euro seems to be sticking to its guns with the cold. A notch or two colder than the 00z. It was the first model to bite on colder solutions and doesn’t seem ready to let go yep, maybe even a tick colder for next wed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Euro looks a little more interesting later next week. Cold air gets a little secondary boost before the ridge pinches off. Perhaps some over running snow? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Regardless all models seem to be trending towards a wetter period around day 10. Really like the direction the GFS ensembles seem to be going once we get into March. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Regardless all models seem to be trending towards a wetter period around day 10. Really like the direction the GFS ensembles seem to be going once we get into March. First legitimate SW’rly flow signature in nearly two months. No sign of death ridging anywhere in the Pacific. Hopefully the snow levels are low enough to be beneficial rather than detrimental to snowpack and skiing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Heavy rain, where we need it... 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 EURO Snow. 5 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: First legitimate SW’rly flow signature in nearly two months. No sign of death ridging anywhere in the Pacific. Hopefully the snow levels are low enough to be beneficial rather than detrimental to snowpack and skiing. Looks like Corvallis scored a freeze this morning 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Meh, next! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Just now, GHweatherChris said: Meh, next! CYA in December!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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