Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Warnings snows now only 1 county away according to GFS for mby. 48 hours ago it was 125 miles away. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 14.1" here at 10:1... I could live with that, LOL. Sadly it will never happen. I doubt we see any snow let alone 14". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 I'm still not expecting anything here. The Euro and Canadian will have to come nw quite a bit before I buy anything the GFS is selling. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Crazy how close the 06Z run on the 13th (30 hours ago from 12Z today) almost exactly mirrors todays 12Z run. Don't know if it means anything or not, but the 06Z 13th was the first to show such a dramatic shift NW. 06Z 13th- todays 12Z- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Same thing happened with the last storm. Ended up suppressed and south. So I guess 4 days out it's a still wait and see. Rock steady so far though on the GFS. Good to see other models slowly come around. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 I will say, the track the GFS shows is a perfect for Grand Rapids to see a snow storm. It's been a long time since I've seen that track. St. Louis-Toledo track. Let's hope it stays that way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 The Canadian is north, but still WAY south of the GFS. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 For giggles, here is the GFS Kuchera at close range in Iowa. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 UK remains well south of the GFS as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 I wouldn’t get your hopes up on the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: As much as I want the GFS to be true, I just can't trust any solution that has somewhere in the Midwest getting 40 inches of snow. That type of accumulation happens in mountains and LES belts. It doesn't happen in N. MO and S. IA. That’s prolly a kuchera ratio which won’t happen since the temps won’t be that cold. The GFS and NAM was more accurate with the last storm than the Euro and Canadian model. Hopefully the storm stops shifting NW and it continues the track that it’s taking now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 12z GEFS seems to remain steady 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Different region view on the GEFS. Just a slight tick south from 6z, but pretty similar. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Different region view on the GEFS. Just a slight tick south from 6z, but pretty similar. Well, I have the highest mean on the map of 10.4" that's gotta count for something... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, GDR said: I wouldn’t get your hopes up on the gfs It's the only model that has been steadfast for several runs now. Will see how it does the next couple runs compared to the Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 FWIW, I don't believe any model that puts me in the middle of a heavy snow track. I always end up on the northern or southern edge or just outside without fail. If/when that changes I'll adjust my expectations accordingly. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Well, I have the highest mean on the map of 10.4" that's gotta count for something... the highest mean is 13.5". it shows in lower right. But in the USA you do.... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 I expect the Euro to hold serve. The Euro Control shifted quite a bit north on yesterday's 18z run, but has reverted back south on the 00z and 06z run. I think the GFS will remain a far north outlier. Just like the last storm, it will only be a matter of time before it caves. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Nope. Grand total of an inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Euro shifted a smidge north, but nothing worth getting excited about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Gfs is way off it’s rocker!! Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, GDR said: Gfs is way off it’s rocker!! Lol Yep. The fact that the Euro and Canadian still barely even drop a flake on the far southeast tip of Iowa suggests the GFS has zero chance of verifying. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 0z Euro...trended better IMO...more juiced also... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 12z Euro Control stayed the same but the difference between the GEFS and EPS is crazy at such a short range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 The Euro ensemble is screaming at Iowans to ignore the GFS. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 39 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Euro ensemble is screaming at Iowans to ignore the GFS. 51 members and maybe one or two get snow as far north as Cedar Rapids. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 "potential may be increasing" 10" mean GFS 6" mean Euro. Not far off. I still expect the GFS to trend slightly south. First real mention from GRR: - MID-WEEK STORM ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON FORECAST DETAILS INDICATED BY ENSEMBLE TRENDS FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT IS TO FIND A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF PRECIP TOTALS, WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD TRANSLATE TO RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 0.75 WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ON THURSDAY. THE GFS MEAN IS CLOSER TO 10 INCHES, WHILE THE ECMWF IS AROUND 6 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS, ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR SOME ICING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT DETAILS ON THIS ARE INHERENTLY EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN SNOW TOTALS. IN SUMMARY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY EVENING MAY BE INCREASING. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 FWIW the Icon has shifted the snow 300 miles north in 18 hours of runs to split the GFS and the Euro. Nam has aligned with the GFS. The potential is certainly increasing for a SMI snow storm. Canadian might be the odd model out right now in terms of consensus. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 NAM a little weaker and south a tick from previous run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Gfs should start to follow soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Drastically cut precip north of KC. Carbon copy of the last storm. Waiting for GFS to confirm… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 18z NAM looks very close to the GHD-3 storm 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Topeka NWS continues to favor the more southern guidance in this afternoon's AFD, which means less snow for MBY of course. (We'll see!) "The second concern throughout the forecast period arrives late Wednesday into Thursday as the aforementioned midlevel trough ejects from the southwest US. Substantial differences amongst deterministic and ensemble guidance remains with the strength, track, and timing of the trough axis. For this forecast period, have continued to leverage a weaker and more-southern track for the midlevel trough and associated surface low track. This scenario would keep the highest snowfall totals mainly southeast of the area. These details will certainly need to be monitored through the coming days." 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 GFS coming in further south. Not anything like the other models, but south from 12z. Not by a lot, but in my area even a small shift south will make a huge difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Well I may stand corrected. The SLP was a touch south, but the defo band of snow didn't really shift south with it. Still looks pretty similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Looks like it did shift a county or so south in the end. It absolutely destroys my backyard, but just 20 miles to the north totals are cut in about a fourth. So the cutoff is severe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Close up Kuchera Compared to 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 No drastic change on the GEFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Current thinking from EAX is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. I like the talk of thundersnow. Models are differing a bit thereafter, but surface cold front is expected to work south through the northern and central Missouri Wednesday night into Thursday. ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with the push of cold air than GFS/NAM, but 12Z solutions have come a bit closer on a consensus. Expect rain to transition to sleet, before transitioning to snow Thursday morning. With coordination with WPC, sided with a GFS/ECMWF blend for this forecast. Am most concerned about 09-18Z time frame Thursday when strong 800mb frontogenetic forcing develops across the area. Equivalent potential vorticity above this frontogenetic forcing is negative in the 12-18Z time frame Thursday, indicating the potential for slantwise convection and thundersnow. Tempered back QPF amounts some from GFS (which produces well over 1"/6 hr in liquid QPF), but this still seems to be the time frame to focus on as upper level trough approaches. By 18Z Thursday, upper wave is expected to quickly lift to the northeast effectively shutting down the lift across the region. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 I’m just gonna assume this will miss again like the last one a few counties south. I’m ok with that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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