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President's Day - Washington's B Day Winter Storm


Tom
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I thought about changing things up for this system and title this next storm by our nations 1st President and founding Father's.   While his B day falls on the 22nd, we celebrate it on Monday the 21st.  One of his famous quotes "“If freedom of speech is taken away, then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.”

Alright, let's dive in and discuss this next winter storm that will take shape over the midsection of the nation as a CO Low ejects out into the Plains/MW and tracks almost due East underneath a powerhouse Canadian HP towards the Lower Lakes.  This system is poised to deliver a mixed bad of precip from heavy snow, freezing rain, sleet and just plain ol' rain to the south.   Let's discuss...

0z GFS with a very large swath of warning snows... @MSP_Weather good timing for the move out of Fargo 😉...I think this storm will activate some of our members up north in the MN region.  @Madtownlooks solid up your way...

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0z GEFS...

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The 0z Euro/EPS continues on the general idea of targeting the Upper MW/N GL's with a lot of high ratio snows...great for ya'll up north!

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Hope I don't have to go to work Monday lol

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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29 minutes ago, GDR said:

So when do we expect the big shift south?

Never. That would actually give Nebraska snow..

In all seriousness, I am just EXTREMELY SALTY right now lol.  I just got missed 50 miles to the south. Literally did not get a single flake in St Joe while KC got 8-10 inches. That is ridiculous. To add insult to injury, my parents live in Aurora, NE..which has gotten a grand total of about 6 inches this winter... That's about as bad of luck a snow lover can have

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2 hours ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Never. That would actually give Nebraska snow..

In all seriousness, I am just EXTREMELY SALTY right now lol.  I just got missed 50 miles to the south. Literally did not get a single flake in St Joe while KC got 8-10 inches. That is ridiculous. To add insult to injury, my parents live in Aurora, NE..which has gotten a grand total of about 6 inches this winter... That's about as bad of luck a snow lover can have

I’m with you. It is beyond frustrating. 

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Since the models have been producing clown maps with the amounts this far out, I'd cut those at least in 1/2 if not more.

So that gives me... *gets out calculator* ........................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................................................................

still 0".

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ugh rain/ice/sleet followed by another mini snow storm that might stay south.  I'm ready for some thunderstorms.  We haven't  had good consistent thunderstorms in Michigan in the spring in what seems like a decade.  

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Very strong HP to our north will be a blocker, so colder solution for S MI is looking likely. Could be mix to snow or snow to ice ( maybe snow, ice to rain south of Detroit). Too early for anything.....

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Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Can someone explain the dynamics of this system to me?  Looking at the surface maps, the surface waves are way south of the snow shield compared to the system that just came through KC.  Is the upper air wave further north?  I can't find evidence of that.  Is this just an overrunning warm air advection set up?  Why isn't the high pressure to the north suppressing the snow like it has been down this way?  @OKCWX had some thoughts on this.  I'm curious if anyone else does.  In short, why is the snow so far north of the energy on this one?

Edit:  I'm aware that the snow is typically north of the actual surface low, but around here, I don't recall ever seeing it that far north. 

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24 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Can someone explain the dynamics of this system to me?  Looking at the surface maps, the surface waves are way south of the snow shield compared to the system that just came through KC.  Is the upper air wave further north?  I can't find evidence of that.  Is this just an overrunning warm air advection set up?  Why isn't the high pressure to the north suppressing the snow like it has been down this way?  @OKCWX had some thoughts on this.  I'm curious if anyone else does.  In short, why is the snow so far north of the energy on this one?

Edit:  I'm aware that the snow is typically north of the actual surface low, but around here, I don't recall ever seeing it that far north. 

Looking at the maps on the GFS, it shows warm advection at the 850mb level, good vorticity at the 700mb level(dendritic growth zone), and a jet streak over SoDak.

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27 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Thanks.  That's helpful. 

I took meteorology classes at UNL back in the day, but am not too skilled on the dynamics of systems. Most of the time I'm mainly looking at surface maps, especially for winter weather, but that appears to be what is driving the location of the snow with this system next week.

Severe weather season I always look at the different levels for low level jet, helicity, etc and am much more versed at that stuff🙂

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53 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Can someone explain the dynamics of this system to me?  Looking at the surface maps, the surface waves are way south of the snow shield compared to the system that just came through KC.  Is the upper air wave further north?  I can't find evidence of that.  Is this just an overrunning warm air advection set up?  Why isn't the high pressure to the north suppressing the snow like it has been down this way?  @OKCWX had some thoughts on this.  I'm curious if anyone else does.  In short, why is the snow so far north of the energy on this one?

Edit:  I'm aware that the snow is typically north of the actual surface low, but around here, I don't recall ever seeing it that far north. 

The placement of the upper and lower jet streaks place maximum lift right where the snow breaks out...I learned this from one our local mets Tom Skilling.  You look for the Left Exit region and that's usually where max lift takes place.

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13 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...

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This system will have some Freezing RN but nothing to bad...

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Pretty big jump north from the 0z run. Gfs I believe went a tick south of its 0z runs. Haven't been paying attention to how models did with the last one  down your way so who knows.

Atm light snow and brutally windy

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7 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Pretty big jump north from the 0z run. Gfs I believe went a tick south of its 0z runs. Haven't been paying attention to how models did with the last one  down your way so who knows.

Atm light snow and brutally windy

The UKIE is north as well...some backside snows fall down here and the GFS is sorta showing that as well...

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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11 hours ago, tStacsh said:

ugh rain/ice/sleet followed by another mini snowstorm that might stay south.  I'm ready for some thunderstorms.  We haven't had good consistent thunderstorms in Michigan in the spring in what seems like a decade.  

Tom says "put away your badminton set, Morch2.0 ain't happening"

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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To the topic about snow falling a long ways from the SLP. In Feb of 1990, we got a rare coma-head whiteout pounding in Flint, MI from a SLP that was over NYC! It was so bad, they had to pull the county plows off the roads. 

Distance between Flint, MI (FNT) and New York, NY (JFK) Flight distance from Flint to New York (Bishop International Airport – New York John F. Kennedy International Airport) is 539 miles / 867 kilometers / 468 nautical miles. Estimated flight time is 1 hour 31 minutes. 

Never seen anything like it in the 32 yrs since. 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 hours ago, SE Wisconsin said:

Looks as though the SE WI snow doughnut hole will continue for awhile. 

lol, worst winter in a long time. It's over, maybe we'll get a sad little late March or early April snow to pad the stats once the snowmobile trails and ski hills are closed for the season. Nothing on the table for us in SE Wisconsin for the rest of the month right now.  

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/%7Esco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-2021-22.gif

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2 hours ago, Bellona said:

Even mentioned possibly ice storm criteria if the Euro qpf winds up being correct. Sounds like it will be messy regardless around my area. 
 

where did you see ice storm mentioned.?  I’ve only heard mention of rain changing to snow with a brief mix possible 

 

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17 minutes ago, Cfweather said:

Ah-  the DMX AFd doesn’t mention anything like that.  I look at that one since it covers Waterloo and CF

Being in DMX cwa and on the border of ARX and DVN, I usually read them all. It's amazing how different they can think a storm will behave. 

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Pretty whopping North shift for the Monday wave here. I still think 6-9" for event total is a pretty decent bet.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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2 hours ago, Bellona said:

Also not surprised DMX didn't mention it as they seem to be very cautious with ice wording and the worst icing does look to occur, if it even does, to the east/SE of their counties.

0z Euro suggesting that ICE your mentioning...

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6 minutes ago, Bellona said:

So cedar falls gets 7 inches and wloo zilch lol. It's happened before. 

I've been seeing this band show up on some of the models with the stronger wave on Tuesday...looks like a nail-biter near you and @james1976...

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