Definitely feels like a late month wet up after a fairly extended dry down would be fair.

I think the January stats are the most important thing. Old timers will talk about the slightly cool January of 2025. Interestingly the 12Z ECMWF shows snow in New Orleans and Florida.

If the MJO has any say in the matter a ridge in the sweet spot should still be possible for week two. The bad news is the mid latitudes seem to be thumbing its nose at the MJO right now.

You beat me to it. Day 6-10 pretty decent progression.

Want the trough over Mongolia for -EAMT. Scandi ridge was longitudinally broad on previous runs, now is a skinny thing that quickly bifurcates. Verbatim that map will be neutral EAMT at best.