January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[CentralNebWeather]

This warmer weather took a toll on my snow yesterday.  Basically just piles and that in shaded areas is all that is left.  Can't believe how fast it melted.  If we don't replenish on Wed. night/Thursday, it won't get as cold as they predict.

[Niko]

Just finished cleaning up out there w my snowthrower. Looks awesome w tons of snowpiles. Easily in the 7-9" range. Temp @ 34F. The air temp feels very comfortable compare of what it has been lately. Actually feels mild out there.

[Tom]

Quite the 48hr 500mb 12z GEFS trends across AK/NW NAMER in the extended...

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Brian, if the GEFS are right, this call may not be that far fetched after all.  There has been an increasing trend among both the GEFS/EPS ensembles for high lat blocking during the long awaited 17th-21st period.  Last night's 00z GEFS knife down the cold across the Plains during this period and a very sharp temp gradient sets up from the SW up towards the GL's.

Check out these maps below...they did NOT look like this several days ago...in fact, they have been steadily trending colder each run given the magnitude of the blocking.  Very interesting.  There will be some places on here who get buried over the next couple weeks.   

 

 

 

 

JB tweeted that he's been more or less ambushed by the Euro's output wrt the MJO phase(s), which now it has back-tracked on it's earlier insistance on a trot thru the warmer phases, and goes back to phase 2 COLD! Man, I posted on Amwx that this was a recurring theme in 13-14 winter and it might happen this time..well, looks like it wants to, eh?

 

You've been the jack pot zone thus far, why not???  Good luck...

 

Kudos buddy, I couldn't do your job - certain of it now 

[Iowawx]

Anyone want to start thread for clipper system that GFS has producing snow in SD, NE, MN and IA later this week?

[Madtown]

Sure doesn't look like the warm up is happening next week based on those maps?

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

A digging shortwave/cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley is
still progged to track up the Ohio Valley on Friday into Saturday
along the baroclinic zone. As this shortwave rounds the longwave
trough, a surface low pressure system will develop and strengthen as
it tracks northward along the Appalachians. The placement of this
system will have a major impact on the conditions SE Michigan will
see late Friday into Saturday, with a more westward placement
resulting in the potential for freezing rain and heavy snowfall.

[Niko]

Currently 37F w sunshine. Feels great outside.

[westMJim]

A nice red sun set tonight. With today's sun the temperature jumped all the way up to 37° here and at least 36° at the airport. And while there is still a good snow pack now that looks to be most gone by late Thursday as temperatures may reach into the low 50's before tumbling over the weekend. The current temperature here is now 34°

[Niko]

A nice red sun set tonight. With today's sun the temperature jumped all the way up to 37° here and at least 36° at the airport. And while there is still a good snow pack now that looks to be most gone by late Thursday as temperatures may reach into the low 50's before tumbling over the weekend. The current temperature here is now 34°

I really don't think we will lose all our snowpack within one day. Yes, some will melt, but not all. I'd be shocked if that were to happened.

[Niko]

Gorgeous evening outside. Crystal clear skies w temps falling to a chilliii 19F for ova nite lows.

[Thunder98]

Huge Trough on the West Coast and Strong Ridge in the Northeast

 

[Tom]

To keep things compartmentalized, I may start a thread this morning for the weekend storm threat for our lower lakes members and keep the central/northern plains winter storm thread separate.  In the days ahead, I'm sure we will be talking about this storm threat and don't want to clog up the other storm thread.

[Tom]

Busts in the EPO by both the GEFS/EPS have trended into a much colder 6-10 day period.  Here is a map from BAMWx showing the glaring warmth in the EPS Day 11-15 vs current 6-10 temp forecast...keep that in the back of your mind as I'm seeing the EPS trend more towards a neutral EPO in the current Day 11-15 outlook and a LOT more high lat blocking.  

 

 

[westMJim]

What a difference Lake Michigan makes. So far this winter season Grand Rapids has recorded 39” of snow fall while on the other side of the Lake Milwaukee has only received 4.9” and Madison has only received 4.7”  With the Lake now at around 25% ice covered the amount of lake effect will now be less going forward into late January and into February.  So as more ice builds up on the lake we will have to depend more on system snows and believe it or not west Michigan is NOT in a ideal location for that type of snow.

The temperature is already up to 28° here with clouds and blue sky.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 9^th     At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average H/L is 31/18

The record high is 57° set in 1939 the coldest maximum is 8° in 1912

The record low is -14° set in 1977 the warmest minimum is 40° in 1939

The biggest snow fall is 8.0” in 1930

The most on the ground is 17” in 1999

Last year the High/Low was 27/14 1.7” of snow fell and there was 2” on the ground

[Tom]

New storm thread for weekend storm threat....

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1713-112-113-glsov-potential-major-winter-storm/

[james1976]

Looks like the friday clipper dies before it gets to E IA

[snowstorm83]

Brrr

[james1976]

DMX goin all out for the weekend:

The cold conditions will then persist for much of the forecast

period. Two other system are expected to impact Iowa, late Friday

and Friday night and another late Sunday and Sunday night. Both

systems will have deep dendritic layers and strong forcing and be

accompanied by reinforcing pushes of Arctic air and gusty

northwest winds. These systems could have big travel impacts.

Continue to monitor the forecast through this period for potential

impacts. Very cold wind chills will also occur.

[Madtown]

^wow

[Andrew NE]

Clipper system for Friday night came in pretty decent for couple inches on the 00z nam.

[Hawkeye]

GFS continues to show a decent clipper crossing the region Sunday night.

[Tom]

Both GEFS/EPS starting to show more signs of the long anticipated storm system around the 21st.  00z EPS has noticeably trended cooler across NE and the Dakotas during this period.  Where will this system track???  Still up in the air and I think some members on here will score some snow esp with a strong signal of a -AO during this period.

 

Meantime, the run to run consistency of the clipper showing up on the GFS has my interest.  It may lay down some widespread accumulating snowfall Sun-Tue period.  Looks like a slow mover that may tap some lake moisture in WI/IL.

 

Here are the 00z/06z GFS snowfall maps...

[Minny_Weather]

With whatever we get tomorrow and Friday combined with the Nebraska signature early February storm (happened every year since idk how long), we should be able to get up to average. Still plenty of January left, and the entire months of b February and March.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 10^th     At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average High/Low is 31/18

The record high is 57 in 1975 the coldest maximum is 5 in 1982

The record low is -19° in 1942 the warmest minimum is 38 in 2000

The largest snow fall is 5.2” in 1999

The most on the ground is 17” in 1999

Last year the H/L was 47/27° there was 1.3” of snow fall (Before day break) and the day started with 4” on the ground (see next post)

[westMJim]

On this date last year the day started with 4” of snow on the ground and the high here in Grand Rapids reached 47° this was the start of a pattern change that would last the rest of January and into February. The temperatures reached 61° in January and all the way up to 66° in February. As of this date last winter the seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids had reached 45.7” . But for the period from January 10^th to the end of February only 9.4” of snow fell. Note this season the total snow fall now stand at 39.2”

[jaster220]

Both GEFS/EPS starting to show more signs of the long anticipated storm system around the 21st.  00z EPS has noticeably trended cooler across NE and the Dakotas during this period.  Where will this system track???  Still up in the air and I think some members on here will score some snow esp with a strong signal of a -AO during this period.

 

Meantime, the run to run consistency of the clipper showing up on the GFS has my interest.  It may lay down some widespread accumulating snowfall Sun-Tue period.  Looks like a slow mover that may tap some lake moisture in WI/IL.

 

Here are the 00z/06z GFS snowfall maps...

 

Clippers, our daily bread this winter, lol.. looking sweet over your way tho - hope you get nailed in those blue shades! 

[Minny_Weather]

GFS kills the Friday clipper before it gets here.

[Niko]

You guys have to remember that it is only Wednesday morning. We are still 2.5 days away. The offshore disturbance has not even made it onshore. You must not give up so easily. As I have said previously and will say it again, I am expecting changes right through Friday.

 

Per NOAA:

 

With such
an amplified upper level ridge over the Atlantic and Pacific energy
not moving onshore to the Pacific Northwest until Thursday morning, so
still not totally willing to give up on a stronger/farther west
solution just yet.

Btw: Near 55F tomorrow. I will definitely be outside to enjoy that glorious temp, hopefully, not too busy.

[Niko]

Currently @ 24F w fog and mist in the air. Should top off into the balmy 40s today. It will feel great.

[Tom]

You guys have to remember that it is only Wednesday morning. We are still 2.5 days away. The offshore disturbance has not even made it onshore. You must not give up so easily. As I have said previously and will say it again, I am expecting changes right through Friday.

 

Per NOAA:

 

With such

an amplified upper level ridge over the Atlantic and Pacific energy

not moving onshore to the Pacific Northwest until Thursday morning, so

still not totally willing to give up on a stronger/farther west

solution just yet.

Btw: Near 55F tomorrow. I will definitely be outside to enjoy that glorious temp, hopefully, not too busy.

Your NOAA office sounds like a bunch of snow weenies...LOL...

[Niko]

Your NOAA office sounds like a bunch of snow weenies...LOL...

Why because they are stated a fact. Dont think so!!! We still have plenty of time for changes.

[Niko]

Somebody could crack 60F tomorrow. Looking forward to that. Hopefully, we can get some sunshine. Some snows will be melting, thank goodness. Great time to clean up the streets and get rid of the salt. Some rain should fall and help clean out the salt.

[Tom]

[jaster220]

Why because they are stated a fact. Dont think so!!! We still have plenty of time for changes.

 

DTX is the least snow weenie of the MI offices imho. To be fair, at least a few of their southern counties would be back in the game with a NW jog, so it's reasonable that they'd at least mention it. For mby tho, after 50's Thur --> to 4 deg's Sat night I'll be looking at rock hard icebergs where snow piles used to be..was a nice ~18 day run of snowcover and winter conditions. Gotta go back to Feb/early March of '15 to find similar. Had tentative skiing plans for the weekend, but slopes will re-freeze into bad ice, so no dice. Guess I'll dust off the bowling shoes, lol

[bud2380]

GFS with a decent clipper over a large swath Sunday night into Monday AM

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011012/120/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[Niko]

DTX is the least snow weenie of the MI offices imho. To be fair, at least a few of their southern counties would be back in the game with a NW jog, so it's reasonable that they'd at least mention it. For mby tho, after 50's Thur --> to 4 deg's Sat night I'll be looking at rock hard icebergs where snow piles used to be..was a nice ~18 day run of snowcover and winter conditions. Gotta go back to Feb/early March of '15 to find similar. Had tentative skiing plans for the weekend, but slopes will re-freeze into bad ice, so no dice. Guess I'll dust off the bowling shoes, lol

Agree 100%.

 

Btw: cant believe how warm it will get tomorrow.  Someone has a shot at 60F. A lot of my snowpack will take a beating.

 

Bowling vs Skiing this weekend. 

[Niko]

Running ‍♀ out of time...

[Niko]

Cant believe how icy the roads are out there. I was having hot chocolate w a CEO at Starbucks earlier today and the streets were like a skating rink. Still holding @ 32F w freezing drizzle.