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February 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#101
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 06:45 AM

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Holy s**t that Euro run was gold for us.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#102
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 06:46 AM

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It's been a rough past couple of days here.  I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well.  She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral.  I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

I'm sorry to hear that Tom. Hope your family is doing well.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#103
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 January 2018 - 07:52 AM

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My condolences, Tom. Hang in there buddy.
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#104
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 08:00 AM

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Euro is going full out polar here at the end of the run. I don't think we'll get down to how cold it's showing, however, as that is with an 8" depth.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#105
VMB443

Posted 27 January 2018 - 08:05 AM

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My condolences too, Tom. There’s always something special about our relationship with our grandparents. May she Rest In Peace.
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#106
FV-Mike

Posted 27 January 2018 - 08:44 AM

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Accuweather getting in on the storm train. 

 

 

 

Attached File  90.jpg   28.8KB   2 downloads

 

 


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#107
Money

Posted 27 January 2018 - 08:44 AM

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GFS

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Still snowing for most areas after that
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#108
Hawkeye

Posted 27 January 2018 - 08:53 AM

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12z GFS... Super Bowl week... 60 straight hours of snow...yes, please.


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season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#109
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 08:59 AM

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EURO AND GFS ARE AGREEING ON A SHARE THE WEALTH SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT A DRILL.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#110
Money

Posted 27 January 2018 - 09:01 AM

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Now it only needs to hold for another 7 days

#111
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 09:05 AM

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Yeah. I mean, a decent looking system 9 days out. What could possibly go wrong?


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#112
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 09:06 AM

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It's been a rough past couple of days here. I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well. She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral. I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week. I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event. With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.


Condolences Tom. Remember the good times you shared together and you realize how important that families are.
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#113
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 09:08 AM

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Well, we WILL definitely have the cold air in place.

Attached Files


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#114
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 09:10 AM

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12z GFS is just a bit active. Looks like a fight between colder air to the north and warmer to the south. Battle zone somewhere across the sub forum with over running precipitation.

#115
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 09:16 AM

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12z GFS. Nice to look at.Attached File  6CD1BB3F-F92F-410E-A454-66191D71DD54.png   314.07KB   1 downloads

#116
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 09:26 AM

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Accuweather getting in on the storm train.



90.jpg


Interesting write up on their thoughts for February. I wish I could remember what year it was, I want to say late 90’s - early 2000’s, there was a February set up like they are predicting that was very stormy in Nebraska. Will have to do some digging to find the year.
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#117
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:02 AM

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Ensembles aren't crazy but many of them are decent for us.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#118
Tony

Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:08 AM

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It's been a rough past couple of days here. I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well. She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral. I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week. I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event. With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.

So sorry to hear about your grandma Tom. May she be at eternal rest!
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#119
james1976

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:07 AM

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It's been a rough past couple of days here. I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well. She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral. I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week. I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event. With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.

Sorry to hear. I just went thru the same thing. My Grandma passed at 330am as well on January 9th.
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#120
Hawkeye

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:10 AM

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The 00z and 12z euro are wildly different for the I-80 corridor... the 12z keeps the baroclinic zone farther north, so only MN, ne IA, n IL and points north get snow, while NE gets little to nothing.  The pattern potential is there, but models are still fluctuating wildly from run to run.  Last night's GFS showed nothing for snow here through 16 days, but this morning is a jackpot.  Expect more of this for the next few days.


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season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#121
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:17 AM

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Boooooo. 12z Euro is all stupid and realistic.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#122
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:27 AM

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Why are we even having this discussion 8 days out? Let’s wait, come on now. We know things will change run to run so there’s no point.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 26.9"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")


#123
Money

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:27 AM

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Boooooo. 12z Euro is all stupid and realistic.


You just got a blizzard

#124
Tabitha

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:42 AM

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You just got a blizzard

 

By Miami standards...


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#125
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:46 AM

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You just got a blizzard

You felt the need to respond with that.... Why?

 

60 miles North of me got a blizzard. Also, did I say anything about us lacking snow? NO! I have said nothing along the lines of "feel pity for Nebraska" since we got the Christmas Eve snow and we were on par with the rest of the sub.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#126
NebraskaWX

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:53 AM

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You just got a blizzard



https://youtu.be/Y7QZgH1eP2o
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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#127
NebraskaWX

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:59 AM

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We should make a scale for what we consider “blizzards”


1. Blizzard - A blizzard where you get 6”+

2. BlizzTurd - A “blizzard” for a brief moment, but you get 2-5”


This most recent storm was definitely a BlizzTurd for Omaha and Lincoln, so I’m going to keep being greedy.
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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#128
Tabitha

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:59 AM

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You just got a blizzard

 

Just do the arithmetic.

 

You need at least 3 hours of heavy snow / visibility under 1/4 mile and strong winds.

 

Technically, moderate snow is one inch an hour snow, truth be told.

 

Heavy snow is snow greater than an inch an hour.

 

So let us say that heavy snow; at its lightest, is 1.5" per hour.

 

Three hours of that would yield 4.5" of snow; standing alone, as a bare minimum...not accounting for more slackened periods.

 

The Lancaster Airport has 1.8"; so the numbers do not add up there.

 

I lived back east before re-locating; and the WFO NEVER issued a blizzard warning when less than 8 inches of snow was anticipated.
 



#129
NebraskaWX

Posted 27 January 2018 - 12:05 PM

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Just do the arithmetic.
 
You need at least 3 hours of heavy snow / visibility under 1/4 mile and strong winds.
 
Technically, moderate snow is one inch an hour snow, truth be told.
 
Heavy snow is snow greater than an inch an hour.
 
So let us say that heavy snow; at its lightest, is 1.5" per hour.
 
Three hours of that would yield 4.5" of snow; standing alone, as a bare minimum...not accounting for more slackened periods.
 
The Lancaster Airport has 1.8"; so the numbers do not add up there.
 
I lived back east before re-locating; and the WFO NEVER issued a blizzard warning when less than 8 inches of snow was anticipated.



Well, they were forecasting 6-8” for us though.

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#130
Tabitha

Posted 27 January 2018 - 12:09 PM

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Well, they were forecasting 6-8” for us though.

 

Yes, they over-forecast.

 

In the Old Days; there was also a temperature threshold for blizzards...20 F or under for a standard blizzard; 10 F and under for a severe blizzard.  "Severe" blizzards also had an augmented wind level criteria; IIRC it was 45 mph.

 

Since it was very hard to meet (especially in the East; where it is usually above 20 F during major snowstorms); NOAA discarded that element of the criteria.


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#131
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 January 2018 - 02:37 PM

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Condolences Tom. Remember the good times you shared together and you realize how important that families are.

+1. Hang in there, Tom. Prayers for you and your family.


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#132
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 January 2018 - 02:40 PM

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Yes, they over-forecast.

 

In the Old Days; there was also a temperature threshold for blizzards...20 F or under for a standard blizzard; 10 F and under for a severe blizzard.  "Severe" blizzards also had an augmented wind level criteria; IIRC it was 45 mph.

 

Since it was very hard to meet (especially in the East; where it is usually above 20 F during major snowstorms); NOAA discarded that element of the criteria.

Back in the 80's in the Twin Cities it was 15F for the threshold.



#133
Tabitha

Posted 27 January 2018 - 03:08 PM

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Back in the 80's in the Twin Cities it was 15F for the threshold.

 

Gemini's would seek a middle ground...

 

All the models look delightful the first 10 days of February out here; as the pattern suddenly looks quite wet.

 

It has looked that way before w/o delivering; but climatologically February is a better snow month around here as anticyclonic January loosens its grip just a bit. 

 

With 15.2" of snow on the entire winter; there is some ground to be made up.

 

If not now; when?


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#134
BLIZZARD09

Posted 27 January 2018 - 05:40 PM

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It's been a rough past couple of days here.  I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well.  She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral.  I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

 

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week.  I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event.  With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.

Sorry to hear that Tom. My condolences to you and your family


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#135
jcwxguy

Posted 27 January 2018 - 06:47 PM

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well that was a lack luster run of the nam



#136
jaster220

Posted 27 January 2018 - 07:50 PM

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It's been a rough past couple of days here.  I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well.  She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral.  I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.
 
On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week.  I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event.  With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.


Sorry for your lost Tom. Prayers for you and your family's comfort..
  • Tom likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.1"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.4 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#137
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 January 2018 - 08:32 PM

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Sorry for your loss tom. Lost my grandpa a couple years ago, know how you feel.
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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#138
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 08:52 PM

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Still not buying GFS because there's no other models backing it. But these maps showing >12" for us are pretty.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#139
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 January 2018 - 09:09 PM

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Still not buying GFS because there's no other models backing it. But these maps showing >12" for us are pretty.

True-- and to be expected at this range - but the CMC is coming around to something similar. 00z GFS is even colder then a month ago....



#140
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 09:45 PM

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True-- and to be expected at this range - but the CMC is coming around to something similar. 00z GFS is even colder then a month ago....



I must say, record lows will drop like flies if we can get enough snow cover to mess with temps. Even a few inches will be enough for that.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#141
snowstorm83

Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:18 PM

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Euro still like, "lol Nebraska, you thought"


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#142
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 28 January 2018 - 12:20 AM

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Euro still like, "lol Nebraska, you thought"

Your not looking at the big picture here. The fact is..that it did shift south some. The models at this moment are mostly south over us.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#143
Tabitha

Posted 28 January 2018 - 12:56 AM

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Your not looking

 

"Your"

 

Lol.


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#144
Tabitha

Posted 28 January 2018 - 01:55 AM

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Gemini's would seek a middle ground...

 

All the models look delightful the first 10 days of February out here; as the pattern suddenly looks quite wet.

 

It has looked that way before w/o delivering; but climatologically February is a better snow month around here as anticyclonic January loosens its grip just a bit. 

 

With 15.2" of snow on the entire winter; there is some ground to be made up.

 

If not now; when?

 

The NWS WFO has just a dusting to an inch in the forecast for this area today; and since I am new to this area they likely have a good deal more insight than I do regarding the ups & downs of the climate here.

 

However, it was interesting to note the 0z RGEM-LAM / HRDPS printing out 0.2 LE...which, with a temperature under 10 F at the moment; would generate a nice little snowfall today.  I always tout the LAM as the best short range model; and it would be nice to see a good outcome for once.

 

In my favor would be the forecast east wind at the surface throughout the day; indeed winds have already veered to the east at all the local stations around here.  An easterly component to the wind is essential on the Eastern Slopes of the Black Hills as the upslope flow is moist; a west wind is a sinking & dry wind here.

 

With 15.2" of snow on the winter; I am just 9 inches behind that snow mecca called Atlantic City, NJ...so the incongruity of this winter is profoundly disturbing.

 

Time will tell..


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#145
Tom

Posted 28 January 2018 - 04:22 AM

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Thank you everyone for your kind posts.  Your support is noteworthy and certainly does help during this stressful period.  In the meantime, the weather brings joy into my life and that is why I like coming on here discussing the weather.  With that being said, both the 00z EPS/GEFS  are still showing the Super Bowl weekend system's potential.  This particular set up will need a lot of patience to see how it will evolve.  Nonetheless, I do feel fairly confident that we will have a system to track during the upcoming week.  Let's see how today's runs look.

 

As for the longer range, I expect to see these PAC waves to continue and come out of the Rockies post Super Bowl weekend.  According to the LRC, there is a system that I'm looking for around the Feb 7th-10th period that may ultimately tug down the Polar Vortex and usher in a major shot of arctic air.  This particular system could become a big deal later on, but first, let's lay down a fresh snow cover by next weekend.  Who wouldn't want some snow falling during the Super Bowl???


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#146
Tabitha

Posted 28 January 2018 - 07:35 AM

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 Your support is noteworthy and certainly does help during this stressful period. 

 

My condolences for your loss. 

 

Since it was your grandmother who passed away; you can take solace in the fact that she lived to a ripe old age; which is really the most important thing.


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#147
Tabitha

Posted 28 January 2018 - 07:42 AM

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The NWS WFO has just a dusting to an inch in the forecast for this area today; and since I am new to this area they likely have a good deal more insight than I do regarding the ups & downs of the climate here.

 

However, it was interesting to note the 0z RGEM-LAM / HRDPS printing out 0.2 LE...which, with a temperature under 10 F at the moment; would generate a nice little snowfall today.  I always tout the LAM as the best short range model; and it would be nice to see a good outcome for once.

 

In my favor would be the forecast east wind at the surface throughout the day; indeed winds have already veered to the east at all the local stations around here.  An easterly component to the wind is essential on the Eastern Slopes of the Black Hills as the upslope flow is moist; a west wind is a sinking & dry wind here.

 

With 15.2" of snow on the winter; I am just 9 inches behind that snow mecca called Atlantic City, NJ...so the incongruity of this winter is profoundly disturbing.

 

Time will tell..

 

Oh my; it is starting to snow here at last...

 

As Warden Norton said after discovering that Andy Dufresne had escaped from Shawshank Prison:

 

"Lord its a miracle!"



#148
Money

Posted 28 January 2018 - 08:26 AM

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Gfs/cmc back north for the super bowl storm

http://www.pivotalwe...6&r=us_mw&dpdt=
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#149
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 January 2018 - 08:53 AM

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12z GFS, hide your eyes Nebraskans. Still a ways out, let’s hope for improvement

#150
Money

Posted 28 January 2018 - 08:53 AM

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GEM

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=