2018 Spring/Summer Outlook

[hlcater]

I hope a ridge doesn't build into the west.... Abysmal for severe weather. We haven't had an eastern ridge, western trough base state in spring for years it seems like. 2011 is the last one of those I can remember.

[Minny_Weather]

I hope a ridge doesn't build into the west.... Abysmal for severe weather. We haven't had an eastern ridge, western trough base state in spring for years it seems like. 2011 is the last one of those I can remember.

I think it'll be relatively dynamic. I don't think we'll be locked into any specific pattern. In fact, I think last Summer may be a decent comparison to what I'm expecting out of this Summer. Maybe more frequent and intense heat waves to come with ridges, and less flooding, but other than that I think we'll see a fluid pattern beginning in May and lasting till at least June. Not gonna be a historic severe wx year by any means, but I definitely think it won't be the worst year in recent history.

 

I just hope hurricane season isn't the same. For the love of god if I have to put up with a death ridge in September for the third straight year due to a major hurricane sitting in the Atlantic...

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I have a friend on facebook who used to be a former chief met here in Omaha for years, he said he's expecting an abnormally chilly summer like the summer of 2009. I just cant see a hot summer panning out especially with the route were going here. Oklahoma is also getting wetter as we head into spring as hell.

[Minny_Weather]

I have a friend on facebook who used to be a former chief met here in Omaha for years, he said he's expecting an abnormally chilly summer like the summer of 2009. I just cant see a hot summer panning out especially with the route were going here. Oklahoma is also getting wetter as we head into spring as hell.

I hope so, but I just can't foresee that happening for a second straight year. Like I said earlier, I think it'll be pretty dynamic and we'll see a close to average Summer, but with wild temperature swings that eventually average out.

[Tom]

Here's one Met's summer analog package...pocket of cool near the GL's, warm southern Plains, hot west coast...

 

[Tom]

I'm starting to see a trend among the various climate models.  The latest IRI has come in a tad cooler across the majority of our sub forum from the Upper Midwest/MW/Plains/GL's compared to its previous run for the May-July period.  Parts of the central Plains are still relatively AN but all in all, seems to be latching onto the idea of an average summer.  Gosh, the CFSv2 has been the only model that has been steadfast.  Check out the previous March run compared to the latest April run.

 

March run..

 

 

April run...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the Summer temp/precip forecast...the signal is there for a hot west coast/inter-mountain west...

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

I have a friend on facebook who used to be a former chief met here in Omaha for years, he said he's expecting an abnormally chilly summer like the summer of 2009. I just cant see a hot summer panning out especially with the route were going here. Oklahoma is also getting wetter as we head into spring as hell.

I remember summer 09. Very cool and wet. Mostly 60s and 70s the entire summer. It was like we never had a summer.

[westMJim]

With the lack of warm days in March and how cold it has been this April one term we are going to hear a lot of in May and into early summer is “cooler by the lake” and the further north one goes in Michigan that may be true for much of the summer.

[Tom]

With the lack of warm days in March and how cold it has been this April one term we are going to hear a lot of in May and into early summer is “cooler by the lake” and the further north one goes in Michigan that may be true for much of the summer.

Co-sign...

[OKwx2k4]

I'm starting to see a trend among the various climate models. The latest IRI has come in a tad cooler across the majority of our sub forum from the Upper Midwest/MW/Plains/GL's compared to its previous run for the May-July period. Parts of the central Plains are still relatively AN but all in all, seems to be latching onto the idea of an average summer. Gosh, the CFSv2 has been the only model that has been steadfast. Check out the previous March run compared to the latest April run.

 

March run..

 

 

April run...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the Summer temp/precip forecast...the signal is there for a hot west coast/inter-mountain west...

 

 

 

 

Has my vote. Couldn't draw it better.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Ready for spring now. The near misses are even more annoying in the early spring months lol.

[clintbeed1993]

Ready for spring now. The near misses are even more annoying in the early spring months lol.

 

Jesus, it's about time you gave up on this dead horse.

[Tom]

The latest CPC outlook for summer hasn't changed much and holding onto the "trough" look across the central CONUS.

[OKwx2k4]

The latest CPC outlook for summer hasn't changed much and holding onto the "trough" look across the central CONUS.

Beautiful stuff.

[Tom]

Will this be a 2nd year in a row where the CFSv2 beats the rest of the climate model pack in terms of providing long range ENSO guidance?  Again, we are seeing strong signal for easterlies to re-emerge over the next couple weeks and negate any indication of an emerging Nino this summer.

 

 

 

 

 

There was a period where the CFSv2 tried to push the idea of a weak Nino a few weeks ago, but has since backed off on that idea for late Summer into the Fall.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

 

 

For instance, the Euro, like last year, was steadfast on an El Nino developing for last Fall at this time...see maps below...big Bust!

 

 

 

At the same time this year, it's doing the same thing...warm bias???

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah. Good stuff there Tom. I'm going with the warm neutral solution. Euro is awful at enso until after the shoulder seasons pass. Ironically, that is the time when it would be most beneficial. Kind of a shame really. It seems to have the global warming bug the last year or so.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah. Good stuff there Tom. I'm going with the warm neutral solution. Euro is awful at enso until after the shoulder seasons pass. Ironically, that is the time when it would be most beneficial. Kind of a shame really. It seems to have the global warming bug the last year or so.

Now that we bring up warm biases, has anyone ever noticed the hilarious urban heat island bias that GFS gets during the Summer? It makes certain (not all) metros 10-15 degrees warmer than the surrounding areas.

[OKwx2k4]

Now that we bring up warm biases, has anyone ever noticed the hilarious urban heat island bias that GFS gets during the Summer? It makes certain (not all) metros 10-15 degrees warmer than the surrounding areas.

Yes. I have noticed that in recent years. There will be small red dots all over in the summer. It drives me nuts. They just now got their elevation/temp algorithms pretty close to right in the last year or so. I guess they can only do one thing at a time. Baby steps.

[Tom]

The CanSIPS model has come out and suggests a relatively warm/hot "look" to start off summer in June...

 

 

 

As we head into the "heart" of summer, things begin to change and the idea of a cooler mid/late summer is showing some credibility if you are to agree with this model.  All things considered, this fits my idea quite well actually.  I think we are going to see some unusual amplified patterns in July across North America.  This 500mb pattern potentially suggests cut-off systems skirting the GL's region mid summer.  Remember when I mentioned we should see the "cold" part of the LRC cycle through in and around the 4th of July holiday???  Something tells me there will be an interesting scenario playing out near the GL's/MW region.  We'll see.

 

July...

 

 

Aug...

 

[Niko]

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

[OKwx2k4]

The CanSIPS model has come out and suggests a relatively warm/hot "look" to start off summer in June...

 

 

 

As we head into the "heart" of summer, things begin to change and the idea of a cooler mid/late summer is showing some credibility if you are to agree with this model. All things considered, this fits my idea quite well actually. I think we are going to see some unusual amplified patterns in July across North America. This 500mb pattern potentially suggests cut-off systems skirting the GL's region mid summer. Remember when I mentioned we should see the "cold" part of the LRC cycle through in and around the 4th of July holiday??? Something tells me there will be an interesting scenario playing out near the GL's/MW region. We'll see.

 

July...

 

 

Aug...

 

I like where those "hot spots" migrate to after June. Especially that big warm spot over the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. I can tolerate a hot May to mid-June for that. A late June to mid-summer severe weather season looks in the cards for me after that. It's going to be tough to analog this summer for sure.

[westMJim]

With the 80° milestone already reached for the 2018 summer season the next questions are when the last 32° low will happen (or did it already happen) the average last date is May 1^st the latest last 32 date at Grand Rapids is June 4^th 1945. And when will the first 90 day happen (if it happens) the earliest date was April 29^th 1899  the mean date is June 19^th two summers it did not happen (2014 and 1950) and the latest in years it did happen was August 11^th 1907 the latest was September 29^th 1953.

[Tom]

Looks like JB and the crew have made some drastic changes in their summer forecast....I like...

[OKwx2k4]

It appears we're starting to see a consensus finally. I like it.

[OKwx2k4]

With the 80° milestone already reached for the 2018 summer season the next questions are when the last 32° low will happen (or did it already happen) the average last date is May 1^st the latest last 32 date at Grand Rapids is June 4^th 1945. And when will the first 90 day happen (if it happens) the earliest date was April 29^th 1899 the mean date is June 19^th two summers it did not happen (2014 and 1950) and the latest in years it did happen was August 11^th 1907 the latest was September 29^th 1953.

I enjoy the statistics. I don't think I say it enough, but what you post is amazing. Awesome.

[Niko]

I am hoping for a warm, dry Summer w on and off severe weather alerts.

[jaster220]

I am hoping for a warm, dry Summer w on and off severe weather alerts.

 

works for me..

[Niko]

works for me..

[Tom]

If you were to hedge your bets on this summer...which model would you pick???  IMO, CFSv2 has the right idea, esp if the west coast ridge really amplifies this summer.

 

CFSv2...near average temps overall with pockets of cooler area and quite wet

 

 

 

 

 

ECMWF...hot June and very dry summer....keep in mind how badly it busted on its weeklies for the month of May indicated very dry conditions overall.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

If you were to hedge your bets on this summer...which model would you pick???  IMO, CFSv2 has the right idea, esp if the west coast ridge really amplifies this summer.

 

CFSv2...near average temps overall with pockets of cooler area and quite wet

 

 

 

 

 

ECMWF...hot June and very dry summer....keep in mind how badly it busted on its weeklies for the month of May indicated very dry conditions overall.

 

Hoping for the first ones.  Starting to get dry around my region.  Several rain chances this week but like always those have tended to be localized.  Have been holding off, but may have to turn on my underground sprinklers this week.  One of the earliest times that I can remember.

[Tom]

WxBell's Pioneer Model, which nailed this past winters temp pattern, is suggesting the cool to colder look, esp if your farther east.  This makes much more sense to me and lines up with the LRC.  I definitely can see the west coast ridge blossom and make its way into the central Plains at times this summer.  Ring of Fire pattern may be ideal across the MW/GL's at times this season when energy comes through the ridge.  A semi-permanent ridge of HP could very well set up shop across the Rockies and inter-mountain west due to the warming waters along the west coast and into the GOA.

 

 

[westMJim]

While not a summer guess I have come across a possible analog year for this summer.

 While it is still way too early in the month to guess how the month will end up but the first 7 days of this May have all been above average looking back there have been many years where May started out just as warm here is a list of a few of them. 1896, 1982, 1998, 1934. 1964, and 1965. One May that kind of stands out is May of 1965. May of 1965 was much warmer than average after a much colder than average April. May of 1965 started out very warm even warmer than this year as the temperature reached 89 on the 7th and 85 on the 8th There was a big cool down the last week of the month. But 1965 is one good analog year to look at. That summer June, July and August were all cooler than average. Could that be the summer of 2018??

[Tom]

Another Summer Outlook via a new model "NASA GEOS5 version 2"...

 

[OKwx2k4]

Another Summer Outlook via a new model "NASA GEOS5 version 2"...

 

Seems to be a common theme that west of I-35 is a desert wasteland this summer. The questionable part is whether the heat dome extends up north throughout the northern plains this summer or retros/transitions to a NPAC ridge as the warm season matures. Early NAO spike an records seems to hold that we see the retrogression idea after mid-June. Fingers crossed. I think I saw a version of the euro that put the "Death Ridge" look right in the center of the US all summer. Surprisingly, it's really the only outlier I have seen at this point so gonna toss it.

[Tom]

CPC's Long Lead SST CA Forecasts for Summer...this model actually has a rather good idea of what may actually come close to happening.  Warm west/south and quite wet across the central CONUS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201804/cat2m_anom.1.png

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201804/caprec_anom.1.png

 

 

 

 

 

The model is certainly seeing the warm blob in the NE PAC during the summer promoting ridging along the west coast...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201804/casst_anom.1.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201804/cahgt_anom.1.png

[Tom]

The evolution of the SST's across the equatorial PAC is something I'm really interested in monitoring. I'm very curious to see if the CFSv2 will score another coupe this year, bc for months now, nearly every single other model has been showing an El Nino forming by early Autumn. The lack of any substantial westerly burst is not allowing the warm blob of waters coming to the surface. Let's see how she evolves.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

I'm liking the wetter trend across most of the long range models. If it's gonna be hot let's at least not turn Nebraska into a desert climate like what happened in 2012.

[CentralNebWeather]

I'm liking the wetter trend across most of the long range models. If it's gonna be hot let's at least not turn Nebraska into a desert climate like what happened in 2012.

I hope so also.  Starting to getting a little dry here.

[gabel23]

Not that I want a tornado to come through my town but......my fellow Lincoln friends remember 2 years ago??? 

[Minny_Weather]