March 3th-7th Bowling Ball

[Minny_Weather]

Ptype changed to snow here too. Too little, too late however. I'd love to be in that band North of Fremont.

[CentralNebWeather]

Northwest winds of 37 gusting to 46 and supposed to get stronger.  I am in town, but it sounds like reports in the country outside of town, there are areas of blowing dust.  Of course there is.  Gross

[St Paul Storm]

A mix of snow and pingers here now. Temp down to 32.

[CentralNebWeather]

One more tidbit, just saw on Twitter that our town's landfill is closed due to high winds.  Wow.

[Stormgeek]

Not really sure what the heck is happening right now. Sounds like trends are to not start snow until 3pm? Currently pouring snow and very windy. Wonder how much the precipitation not getting here unail late will affect totals. As was mentioned before, usually snow being delayed leads to amounts getting killed.

[St Paul Storm]

Not really sure what the heck is happening right now. Sounds like trends are to not start snow until 3pm? Currently pouring snow and very windy. Wonder how much the precipitation not getting here unail late will affect totals. As was mentioned before, usually snow being delayed leads to amounts getting killed.

Wind whipped snow here now as well. Coming down pretty good. Fresh coating on the ground.

 

It’s a total nowcast event. The models have no idea what’s going to happen. They haven’t seen a good bowling ball in years and it’s throwing them into chaos.

[St Paul Storm]

Update a few minutes ago:

 

The heaviest snow will occur this afternoon and

evening. In general snow totals between 6 and 9 inches are

expected across the warning area, with the highest snowfall

totals, near 12 inches, expected between Princeton and Little

Falls in central MN. Snow totals in the advisory are expected to

between 3 and 6 inches. In addition, northeast winds gusting to 45

mph will lead to some blowing and drifting snow. Given the

possibility of high snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, we

anticipate very difficult travel across the area during the

afternoon and continuing through the evening commute.

[Stormgeek]

Update a few minutes ago:

The heaviest snow will occur this afternoon and

evening. In general snow totals between 6 and 9 inches are

expected across the warning area, with the highest snowfall

totals, near 12 inches, expected between Princeton and Little

Falls in central MN. Snow totals in the advisory are expected to

between 3 and 6 inches. In addition, northeast winds gusting to 45

mph will lead to some blowing and drifting snow. Given the

possibility of high snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, we

anticipate very difficult travel across the area during the

afternoon and continuing through the evening commute.

Was this not the AFD from earlier this morning?

[St Paul Storm]

Was this not the AFD from earlier this morning?

I’m not sure. I pulled it from the 10:35 update to the Winter Storm Warning.

[Tom]

Would love to be in Bismark, ND right about now...

 

Current conditions at Bismarck, Bismarck Municipal Airport (KBIS)Lat: 46.78°NLon: 100.76°WElev: 1677ft.

Heavy Snow Freezing Fog and Breezy

23°F

-5°C

Humidity 96% Wind Speed NW 21 G 32 mph Barometer 29.68 in (1007.0 mb) Dewpoint 22°F (-6°C) Visibility 0.25 mi Wind Chill 8°F (-13°C) Last update 5 Mar 11:52 am CST

 

[Hawkeye]

The second wave of precip has arrived, here.  The forecast called for 37 today, but we've been stuck just under 33 all day.  Perhaps that'll be good for a bit more snow later.

 

The 12z euro has added a blob of good snow along the Missouri river... and removed more from MSP.

 

[hlcater]

The second wave of precip has arrived, here.  The forecast called for 37 today, but we've been stuck just under 33 all day.  Perhaps that'll be good for a bit more snow later.

 

The 12z euro has added a blob of good snow along the Missouri river... and removed more from MSP.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_36.png

Euro verbatim has 4" for the CR area, given crummy ratios, probably 2.5" to 3". That's the most out of guidance, and I'm not really expecting more other than an inch of slush at best, but I think rates will be pretty good for awhile, and maybe even a shot at some thunder? We shall see.

[Stormgeek]

Looks like thundersnow is ongoing in SW MN right now!

 

Edit: Also looks like model trends are not our friend at this time. I know they have been having a terrible time, but trends have been in the wrong direction so far today.

[bud2380]

NW Linn are you getting any snow? Radar scope shows snow for the north half of Linn county. I’ve got 33 in my car when I left for lunch on the SW side of CR.

[hlcater]

NW Linn are you getting any snow? Radar scope shows snow for the north half of Linn county. I’ve got 33 in my car when I left for lunch on the SW side of CR.

Doesn't look like it, but I'm in CR right now, my house N of Hiawatha may be telling a different story, but I honestly doubt it.

[NEJeremy]

Wind whipped snow here now as well. Coming down pretty good. Fresh coating on the ground.

 

It’s a total nowcast event. The models have no idea what’s going to happen. They haven’t seen a good bowling ball in years and it’s throwing them into chaos.

I'm not sure why this storm is called a bowling ball at this point. It cut hard from Colorado to the eastern Dakotas, then it does an about face, and drops back southeast before moving east. Definitely not like a bowling ball and one of the main reasons I'm sure the models are having a hard time is due to it's movement. Back in the day, a good bowling ball system meant coming out of Colorado, heads straight east, and is normally a good hit for almost everyone on this forum.

[hlcater]

Rain/sleet/some snow here on the N side of CR. Still mostly rain.

[Stormgeek]

I'm not sure why this storm is called a bowling ball at this point. It cut hard from Colorado to the eastern Dakotas, then it does an about face, and drops back southeast before moving east. Definitely not like a bowling ball and one of the main reasons I'm sure the models are having a hard time is due to it's movement. Back in the day, a good bowling ball system meant coming out of Colorado, heads straight east, and is normally a good hit for almost everyone on this forum.

Yeah, this storm is... something. Not exactly sure haha. Model chaos track.

[bud2380]

Same here. Got a little sleet mixing in with the rain now

[bud2380]

Temp down to 31 on my cars thermometer now.

[St Paul Storm]

I'm not sure why this storm is called a bowling ball at this point. It cut hard from Colorado to the eastern Dakotas, then it does an about face, and drops back southeast before moving east. Definitely not like a bowling ball and one of the main reasons I'm sure the models are having a hard time is due to it's movement. Back in the day, a good bowling ball system meant coming out of Colorado, heads straight east, and is normally a good hit for almost everyone on this forum.

It’s a bowling ball on bumper lanes. I get what you’re saying though.

[St Paul Storm]

Mesoscale discussion for the TC, Rochester and St Cloud:

Mesoscale Discussion 0109

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0117 PM CST Mon Mar 05 2018

 

Areas affected...Minnesota...Western Wisconsin and Northeast Iowa

 

Concerning...Heavy snow

 

Valid 051917Z - 052345Z

 

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snowfall will continue to develop across

parts of west-central, south-central and southeastern Minnesota over

the next couple of hours. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour will be

possible within the more intense bands this afternoon.

 

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1001 mb low over

far northwestern Iowa with backed easterly winds across much of the

upper Mississippi Valley. Surface temperatures are below freezing

across west-central Minnesota where heavy snow is already being

reported. The band of moderate to heavy precipitation extends

southeastward across southern Minnesota and northeast Iowa where

surface temperatures are just above freezing. The band of

precipitation is being supported by a 50 to 70 kt low-level jet

oriented from southeast to northwest across the MD area. As the band

of precipitation moves northward into south-central and southeastern

Minnesota, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 20s F should allow

for the temperature to drop to freezing due to dynamic cooling. This

along with strong isentropic ascent should result in the development

of moderate to heavy snowfall this afternoon. Snowfall rates are

expected to reach 1 inch per hour within the heaviest portions of

the band.

[Tom]

That band drifting north into MSP looks like fun...evening rush hour stopper will be in the works...

[Madtown]

Few flakes here...should be ready roll if the band gets here. 32.5 atm

[St Paul Storm]

New lightning strikes at Mankato, MN, 70 mi SW of the metro. This could get fun in the next 45-60 min.

[Hawkeye]

The weather is pretty interesting, here.  At 1pm, pea-size hail poured down for a couple minutes.  Now, because the temp hasn't gone anywhere today, our trees are covered in a glaze of ice and frozen droplets.

[james1976]

Yup its 32 here now. Have had rain and sleet off and on. Its now turning to ice here on the trees as well. Ground is still wet.

[james1976]

And just as a sent that last message it quickly turned to snow. Crazy weather!

[jaster220]

 

Would love to be in Bismark, ND right about now...

 

Current conditions at Bismarck, Bismarck Municipal Airport (KBIS) Lat: 46.78°NLon: 100.76°WElev: 1677ft.

Heavy Snow Freezing Fog and Breezy

23°F

-5°C

Humidity 96% Wind Speed NW 21 G 32 mph Barometer 29.68 in (1007.0 mb) Dewpoint 22°F (-6°C) Visibility 0.25 mi Wind Chill 8°F (-13°C) Last update 5 Mar 11:52 am CST

 

 

Road trip?? 

 

It’s a bowling ball on bumper lanes. I get what you’re saying though.

 

Yeah, In order of frequency:

 

1) Cutter

2) Clipper

3) Bowling Ball

4) Zig-zagger

[Hawkeye]

It just started pouring sleet, pretty heavy.

[gosaints]

Wet bulbed from 35 to 32 in very short order. Snow has started

[bud2380]

also sleeting good here.  

[St Paul Storm]

The band to the north and the approaching band to the south are starting to feed off of each other. A few flakes starting to fall.

[hlcater]

Sleet/snow now. Rain is now the minority.

[hlcater]

Heard some thunder.

[Hawkeye]

Snowflakes are now beginning to mix in.  Radar shows the convective returns now fading into more snow-like returns around Cedar Rapids and points west and north.

 

I've picked up 0.90" of precip so far.

[james1976]

WWA added for a ton more counties

[james1976]

Massive dry slot will be here in about an hour

[Bryan1117]

Even Omaha is now in a WWA for 1-2” of snow and considerable blowing snow... not sure what to think about it in reality... really sick of these nickel and dimers.

[gosaints]

Drove south of town to near preston, mn into the best DBZ's.  thunder and whiteout....