June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

When was our last regionally cold November? And how often do cold Novembers correlate with snowy winters?

[MossMan]

Someone’s got the drizzley blues.

Luckily the drizzle just stopped. Can’t complain though, the weather was good for my Saturday-Monday non working days.

[Timmy Supercell]

A while back I had a thought regarding winter as to whether a blowtorch Oct/Nov would be a good thing. Get over with ridging/torching when it doesn’t matter, rip off the band-aid, and drop the Arctic hammer in Dec/Jan.

 

Obviously this correlation doesn’t work every year (2014 was a notorious example, but that winter was kind of doomed from the start with strong Niño / high solar / Greenland vortex). But I put our best winters of the last 35 years into the plotting tool and it gave me this for Oct-Nov temperatures.

 

9F6A9281-376B-41AB-8881-6BFD4824E92F.png

 

Interesting stuff. Major torching signal in the mountain West and warm signal across the entire West. Now I’m wondering if it’s just coincidence or if there’s a reason for this.

 

Not sure about October, but a handful of very warm Novembers have translated to epicly snowy winters in the PNW.

[Omegaraptor]

Not sure about October, but a handful of very warm Novembers have translated to epicly snowy winters in the PNW.

1949!!!!!!!!!!

 

2016 too

[Omegaraptor]

 

 

Here’s the map with the same years but separated into October only and November only.

[Jesse]

A while back I had a thought regarding winter as to whether a blowtorch Oct/Nov would be a good thing. Get over with ridging/torching when it doesn’t matter, rip off the band-aid, and drop the Arctic hammer in Dec/Jan.

Obviously this correlation doesn’t work every year (2014 was a notorious example, but that winter was kind of doomed from the start with strong Niño / high solar / Greenland vortex). But I put our best winters of the last 35 years into the plotting tool and it gave me this for Oct-Nov temperatures.

9F6A9281-376B-41AB-8881-6BFD4824E92F.png

Interesting stuff. Major torching signal in the mountain West and warm signal across the entire West. Now I’m wondering if it’s just coincidence or if there’s a reason for this.

You are getting a muddied signal there. Leading up to “good” winters, October and November tend to have opposite signs (ie cool October and warm November). But even that I would say is mostly coincidence.

 

I would run October and November separately and see what you get. My guess is a cool October/warm November signal (Octobers 2013, 2008, 1995, 1992, 1990 and 1984 were all on the cool to cold side).

[Timmy Supercell]

1949!!!!!!!!!!

 

2016 too

 

Here's two of the most anomalous ones at KLMT

Nov 1949 average high: 57.0 (+11.0)

Nov 1995 Mean: 43.5 (+8.0)

 

I don't believe those kinds of anomalies are even possible in the summer or spring.

 

And warm late falls apparently are very common. Nov 2016 was not even a top 5 month. 

[Jesse]

PDX at just 65 as of 1pm. We’ll see if they can hold in the 60s again today. If so, it would be the first July in a decade to have three or more sub-70 days.

[Jesse]

1949!!!!!!!!!!

2016 too

I don’t know if you realize it, but 1949 was also our coldest October on record. And it’s not even close.

[BLI snowman]

You are getting a muddied signal there. Leading up to “good” winters, October and November tend to have opposite signs (ie cool October and warm November). But even that I would say is mostly coincidence.

 

I would run October and November separately and see what you get. My guess is a cool October/warm November signal (Octobers 2013, 2008, 1995, 1992, 1990 and 1984 were all on the cool to cold side).

 

Yeah, the correlation is stronger with warm Novembers. October is more of a mixed bag. Even there it's far from perfect, though. 1978 is one of the coldest Novembers on record and the ensuing DJF was absolutely frigid.

 

I think October/November regional precip might be the best indicator for us, as it's usually indicative of an active northern jet getting started earlier in the season.

[Timmy Supercell]

I don’t know if you realize it, but 1949 was also our coldest October on record. And it’s not even close.

 

Interesting. Oct 2016 was a rainy and temperate one. So I guess there's no guarantees with October.

 

Last October was a cold and dry one, lowlands had no snow.

[Jesse]

Interesting. Oct 2016 was a rainy and temperate one. So I guess there's guarantees with October.

 

Last October a cold and dry one, lowlands had no snow.

We had a decent snow fall in mid-March.

[GobBluth]

My money is on a torchy September which can still produce plenty of 90+ days at PDX. Longer nights and lower sun angles make it feel less oppressive though.

Generally the hot September days feature stronger offshore winds too, further making the days more tolerable.

[Jesse]

I just love seeing how much locals are enjoying this normal summer so far.

 

[Jesse]

EPS definitely looking troughier than the operational in the 6-10 day range.

[Omegaraptor]

I don’t know if you realize it, but 1949 was also our coldest October on record. And it’s not even close.

It indeed was. The wavetrain was straight up nuts from fall 1949 into spring 1950. March 1950 delivered an impressive Arctic airmass in the East.

[Jesse]

It indeed was. The wavetrain was straight up nuts from fall 1949 into spring 1950. March 1950 delivered an impressive Arctic airmass in the East.

The Korean War started in June 1950.

[BLI snowman]

Harvey made its screen debut in 1950

 

[Jesse]

[Deweydog]

Nice to see 1949-50 back on the table for the first time in DECADES.

[MossMan]

Nice to see 1949-50 back on the table for the first time in DECADES.

Or since the last MLK Day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, the correlation is stronger with warm Novembers. October is more of a mixed bag. Even there it's far from perfect, though. 1978 is one of the coldest Novembers on record and the ensuing DJF was absolutely frigid.

 

I think October/November regional precip might be the best indicator for us, as it's usually indicative of an active northern jet getting started earlier in the season.

 

Absolutely. There is a pretty strong correlation, here at least, between wet falls and good winters. 2016 had a very wet fall. On the other hand very dry falls are often a bad sign. I noticed this last  year when I looked into it after our bone dry November, this caused me to revamp my seasonal forecast and it ended up being pretty accurate.

[Deweydog]

This July is going mainstream:

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/wheres-summer-seattle-amid-weeks-long-stretch-of-cool-ish-weather

 

Cool preference is leading the poll 54/46! Start stuffing the ballot box, Tim!

[TT-SEA]

This July is going mainstream:

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/wheres-summer-seattle-amid-weeks-long-stretch-of-cool-ish-weather

 

Cool preference is leading the poll 54/46! Start stuffing the ballot box, Tim!

 

 

 

I hope we get this preference stuff figured out finally.   There can be only one opinion. 

 

Also getting the epic winter analogs all set too.   

 

Very good day for the forum... its been a long time coming!  

[Deweydog]

Or since the last MLK Day.

Early indications are snowy and COLD! Gradients look likely too!

[FroYoBro]

Raindrops falling on my head!

 

Prepare yourselves!

[Jesse]

Raindrops falling on my head!

Prepare yourselves!

Have your eyes turned red?

[Omegaraptor]

Absolutely. There is a pretty strong correlation, here at least, between wet falls and good winters. 2016 had a very wet fall. On the other hand very dry falls are often a bad sign. I noticed this last  year when I looked into it after our bone dry November, this caused me to revamp my seasonal forecast and it ended up being pretty accurate.

This one is really going to hurt Tim.

 

November precipitation in that same set of good years:

 

 

Here’s the November precipitation in an assortment of duds since 1990:

 

[TT-SEA]

This one is really going to hurt Tim.

 

November precipitation in that same set of good years:

 

ABC79824-9A6A-4F8D-B922-90ED75769E9B.png

 

Here’s the November precipitation in an assortment of duds since 1990:

 

FCA831F5-BADE-4383-976E-82BF6F1AAF90.png

 

 

I have no idea why I would even care... some Novembers are wet and some are not.     Shocking evidence.  

[MossMan]

Early indications are snowy and COLD! Gradients look likely too!

The teleconnections will ruin everyone’s day however. It’s over.

[Deweydog]

The teleconnections will ruin everyone’s day however. It’s over.

Flatiron says teleconnections wont matter this time! It’s ON!!!

[Phil]

Yeah, the correlation is stronger with warm Novembers. October is more of a mixed bag. Even there it's far from perfect, though. 1978 is one of the coldest Novembers on record and the ensuing DJF was absolutely frigid.

 

I think October/November regional precip might be the best indicator for us, as it's usually indicative of an active northern jet getting started earlier in the season.

October 2019 was cool/wet IIRC? It was followed by a very warm winter across the West/PNW (and nationally).

 

I never get any statistically significant correlations when running these variables. Seems like there are a lot of subjective anecdotes and cherry-picking.

[Phil]

EPS definitely looking troughier than the operational in the 6-10 day range.

Yup. Also a disastrous run for everyone outside the PNW.

[Jesse]

October 2019 was cool/wet IIRC? It was followed by a very warm winter across the West/PNW (and nationally).

I never get any statistically significant correlations when running these variables. Seems like there are a lot of subjective anecdotes and cherry-picking.

October 2019 was very cool, but also very dry.

 

But yeah, this most recent Omeganalysis definitely smells a little like anecdotal cherry picking.

[Phil]

This July is going mainstream:

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/wheres-summer-seattle-amid-weeks-long-stretch-of-cool-ish-weather

 

Cool preference is leading the poll 54/46! Start stuffing the ballot box, Tim!

Fact is Tim is the anomaly. Nobody likes hot summers unless they derive pleasure from pain.

[Jesse]

Fact is Tim is the anomaly. Nobody likes hot summers.

That poll would indicate that 46% of people do.

[Phil]

[Phil]

October 2019 was very cool, but also very dry.

 

But yeah, this most recent Omeganalysis definitely smells a little like anecdotal cherry picking.

IIRC, I ran precip last year and found a weakly negative but statistically insignificant correlation between November precip and DJF temps.

 

And I think it’s a good thing omegaraptor is trying to decode the matrix. Someone has to try.

[TT-SEA]

Fact is Tim is the anomaly. Nobody likes hot summers unless they derive pleasure from pain.

 

Again... it is so important what people think about the weather.   Thanks for the updates! 

 

I can only speak for myself... but I do not prefer hot summers either.    I also don't like cloudy, chilly summers.  Go figure.  I know enjoying 70s and sunshine is very strange.    I have never met anyone who agrees.   Oh well.  

[Deweydog]

Fact is Tim is the anomaly. Nobody likes hot summers unless they derive pleasure from pain.

Our hot summers aren’t all that hot.