June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

[snow_wizard]

One of the nicest days in a while.  Good timing for once!

[TT-SEA]

One of the nicest days in a while. Good timing for once!

No f*cking doubt. Good time to break the weekend curse.

[snow_wizard]

Good grief.

 

Our annual 4th of July gathering is a sweaty mess per the usual..pool water temp is 91°F despite it being mostly in the shade.

 

No end in sight. Weeks upon weeks of swamp heat incoming. Tim would be thrilled.

 

Chilly in the NW in the summer absolutely roasts the rest of country.  1955 was incredibly chilly here and absolute hell for everyone else.

[Phil]

Chilly in the NW in the summer absolutely roasts the rest of country. 1955 was incredibly chilly here and absolute hell for everyone else.

Yup. Though literally everything seems to roast us these days. There’s no escape.

 

A GOA vortex/plains range can lower humidity even if it’s hot. I’d take a 2012 pattern over the plains trough/SE ridge pattern that swampifies this place even more than it is by default.

[TT-SEA]

Huge party here.... lots of music and drinking and people having socially distant fun in the sun.

 

[snow_wizard]

Huge party here.... lots of music and drinking and people having socially distance fun in the sun.

 

 

No masks? 

[TT-SEA]

No masks?

Not outside on the boat!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

72 and sunny in Eugene.

 

Are y'all down here today?

[snow_wizard]

Not outside on the boat!

 

I was just messing with you.

 

BTW...that is the exact location I was when a really impressive windstorm hit in November 1993.  My time of arrival just happened to be perfect for when the wind went from nearly calm to around 70 in a matter of seconds.  That one takes the cake for literally hitting like a ton of bricks.  In less than a minute the entire town had gone black from power outages.  The wind lovers on here would have been in ecstasy.

[El_Nina]

Are y'all down here today?

Southern Oregon y'alls.

[Omegaraptor]

I just had to check in considering this very unusual (especially by 21st century standards) regime we have entered.  A few days ago the models appeared to be hinting at a more normal July pattern setting in, but recent runs show a continuation of unusually cool conditions persisting.  Today's 12z GFS has thicknesses below 552 on the 10th of July.  Pretty insane by recent standards.  Jesse has to be breathing a sigh of relief!  You certainly have to say we were more than due for a cool July.

 

On the ENSO front....even the ECMWF has cool ENSO for this fall and winter as the deepest solar min in about 200 years continues.

 

On the political front...I am in wholehearted agreement not a word should be spoken in the weather threads and probably not in any thread.  I am 100% worn out on it.

I’m a bit late, but welcome back Jim!

 

Have you seen the QBO forecast? The -QBO phase is cutting off prematurely just like 2016 which should make this winter a fabled Niña/+QBO. With first year Niña + westerly QBO + solar min the table is set about as well as it can be this far out.

[MossMan]

Nice at the lake house as well!

[snow_wizard]

It appears the residents of Covington aren't going to let this bummer year dampen their spiritis tonight.  For the first time since I've lived here the firework stands were all but sold out.  We are talking about the REAL fireworks here.  I had to settle for getting a few small things and a couple of the really big ones.  All of the mid range stuff was gone.

[snow_wizard]

I’m a bit late, but welcome back Jim!

 

Have you seen the QBO forecast? The -QBO phase is cutting off prematurely just like 2016 which should make this winter a fabled Niña/+QBO. With first year Niña + westerly QBO + solar min the table is set about as well as it can be this far out.

 

Yeah….I was noticing the QBO looking like it might do that.  I have to think these deep solar mins have changed the general QBO behavior.  This solar min is going down as one of the deepest since the Maunder minimum.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Huge party here.... lots of music and drinking and people having socially distance fun in the sun.

 

Nothing much better than that! This is why Independence Day is my favorite holiday.

[Omegaraptor]

Yeah….I was noticing the QBO looking like it might do that.  I have to think these deep solar mins have changed the general QBO behavior.  This solar min is going down as one of the deepest since the Maunder minimum.

Was talking to Phil earlier about it, he said that the SH SSW event may have triggered it. There’s a scientific paper on it. Weird stuff.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Every dog’s worst night of the year.

[Jesse]

I had to go to a few stores to get all the ones I wanted. I bought around 3x times the number I usually get. I talked to all my neighbors and they also bought more than what they typically buy. The neighborhood is going to be rocking tonight. Freedom!

You’re not celebrating at Eagle Creek this year?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilly in the NW in the summer absolutely roasts the rest of country. 1955 was incredibly chilly here and absolute hell for everyone else.

IIRC summer 2011 was very hot in the Central US.

[TT-SEA]

I was just messing with you.

 

BTW...that is the exact location I was when a really impressive windstorm hit in November 1993.  My time of arrival just happened to be perfect for when the wind went from nearly calm to around 70 in a matter of seconds.  That one takes the cake for literally hitting like a ton of bricks.  In less than a minute the entire town had gone black from power outages.  The wind lovers on here would have been in ecstasy.

 

Interesting... it is an area exposed perfectly to a SW wind during a fall or winter storm.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had a nice orange moon rise around the time the booming started here.

 

Too bad we didn't have nature's fireworks mixed in this year.

[Omegaraptor]

[Timmy Supercell]

Enjoyed the fireworks show here. Big orange moon here as well.

 

Isn't there a name for that.. maga moon? 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Every dog’s worst night of the year.

My dog is hating it. Problem is, if they would have allowed the public fireworks displays, it would have been mostly over by now. Never heard as many people shooting their own fireworks this year compared to any other year.

[TT-SEA]

My dog is hating it. Problem is, if they would have allowed the public fireworks displays, it would have been mostly over by now. Never heard as many people shooting their own fireworks this year compared to any other year.

 

 

Its pretty insane here too... more than any other year.    And my dog is not handling it well. 

[snow_wizard]

My dog is hating it. Problem is, if they would have allowed the public fireworks displays, it would have been mostly over by now. Never heard as many people shooting their own fireworks this year compared to any other year.

 

It's pretty crazy here too.  Still a nearly constant barrage going on.

[Jesse]

Definitely some trends toward the late week trough getting held up on the 00z runs. Would be closer to climo.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

55F with a nice night under a full moon.

[Timmy Supercell]

39 this morning. Almost chilly. 

[Farmboy]

Would be nice to get a good old fashioned heat wave at least once this summer.

[TT-SEA]

Mostly sunny already here this morning... with some firework haze in the air. It was so thick last night that it looked like ground fog with the moonlight shining.

[Phil]

Would be nice to get a good old fashioned heat wave at least once this summer.

No heat waves!

[TacomaWaWx]

Fireworks were f*cking unbelievable last night. So many. The full moon with the fireworks was just amazing definitely the best 4th I can remember. Was hazy this morning!

[TacomaWaWx]

Yesterday was a 68/52 day in Tacoma. First 4 days of the month were all in the 60s but I’m betting we hit the 70s today!

[TacomaWaWx]

No heat waves!

It’s only hit 70 one time in the last week here in Tacoma.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another gorgeous morning. Marine layer.

[Jesse]

Another gorgeous morning. Marine layer.

It is Andrew.