Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Which is about 3 MB stronger and nearly the same location as the GGEM at the same time period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Compare the 12z Euro from yesterday, to day's run...farther west and south.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 HR 120: 1001.8 MB L near Racine. 850 MB temps are cold enough for snow right to the west and NW of the L track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z Euro ejects the SLP into NE IL at 120 HR>.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Tom, where does it go between 96 and 120? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Wx Bell maps have not even loaded yet....very slow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Euro is dry as a bone. That seems odd. For Iowa CityMON 18Z 10-NOV 6.2 5.1 1006 59 36 0.00 556 551 TUE 00Z 11-NOV 7.5 5.0 1002 74 49 0.00 555 554 TUE 06Z 11-NOV 3.8 3.1 1005 87 60 0.01 553 549 TUE 12Z 11-NOV 0.3 -5.6 1012 80 71 0.03 547 538 TUE 18Z 11-NOV 0.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Nevermind, I found the snow. It's in Wisconsin. Below is LaCrosseMON 12Z 10-NOV -1.5 -7.6 1015 55 99 0.02 549 537 MON 18Z 10-NOV -2.5 -5.7 1013 82 99 0.26 548 538 TUE 00Z 11-NOV -1.6 -5.7 1011 89 100 0.35 547 538 TUE 06Z 11-NOV -1.7 -6.5 1011 90 98 0.22 544 535 TUE 12Z 11-NOV -3.1 -7.9 1014 87 97 0.10 540 529 TUE 18Z 11-NOV -1.4 -9.4 1016 76 97 0.05 536 523 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 What about MSN, OSH or MKE? Thanks in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 What should we digest from the 12z model runs today? #1, looks like their is model agreement on developing a SLP in the Plains that heads into the Lakes and NOT a sheared system. #2, track and strength still uncertain The GFS doesnt try to phase the system until its way east which is the typical error of the model to skirt the energy out to fast to the east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Interesting to see the stronger solution lately, hope that continues with more of a southerly track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Nevermind, I found the snow. It's in Wisconsin. Below is LaCrosseMON 12Z 10-NOV -1.5 -7.6 1015 55 99 0.02 549 537 MON 18Z 10-NOV -2.5 -5.7 1013 82 99 0.26 548 538 TUE 00Z 11-NOV -1.6 -5.7 1011 89 100 0.35 547 538 TUE 06Z 11-NOV -1.7 -6.5 1011 90 98 0.22 544 535 TUE 12Z 11-NOV -3.1 -7.9 1014 87 97 0.10 540 529 TUE 18Z 11-NOV -1.4 -9.4 1016 76 97 0.05 536 523 Looks like a juicy system for sure...over 1"qpf is well over 12" of snow....EURO/GGEM consistency Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Parallel GFS/EURO/GGEM all show 12-14+ in the heaviest bands. Within 4 days now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 The heavy snow will probably pass north of the Cedar Rapids to Chicago corridor, but I hope we can at least see something fall. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z Euro... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 It will be interesting to how far the cold air dome can press this system south. As far as ground temperatures. I've seen a foot of snow stick after a week of 50s and 60s in late November before! The cold air in place now will act to cool off the top layer of the soil. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 First post this young winter season-- so that is good being NOV 6th. Loved seeing the 12Z GFS run--)5"+ here in C.IA-- but I believe it's wrong. The Euro has been the most consistent and has superior physics to the GFS-- which is huge with what is transpiring around the globe (SOI index tanking etc-- PV about to get displaced and the adjustment of the seasonal jet(s). Also-- I remind folks that 18Z and 06Z GFS/NAM DO NOT(at least last year they didn't) ingest upper air parameters into the runs-- so take them with a grain of salt. I believe the Euro is locked in and do not see a shift of more then 50 miles N or S. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Impressive totals. Need to shave off 0.5-1.5" in parts of northern and central WI and a few inches in northern Lower MI from snow predicted this weekend. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Been watching this storm with varying opinions. On one hand, as has been mentioned, model guidance does hold a bias to be too slow with Arctic fronts. This could eventually favor another southward shift, though with consistency with snow up in Wisconsin, I wouldn't be surprised to see that end up verifying.Additionally, my two cents on ground temperatures, they really can wreak havoc on snow accumulations. Depending on surface temps as far out as 14 days before the event, snow can either be very difficult to come by (i.e sunny and warm weather prior to a storm), or unexpectedly easy (i.e. frost/freezes on a nightly basis, generally cloudy during the day to suppress highs). Point is, ground temps, especially this early in the season, are quite a bit more variable than they may be made out.For the snow maps, I'll go conservative purely because the liquid and snow parts of this storm are so close to each other, as usually happens in early-season storms (good example is that sharp cut-off in the GGEM snow map). Edit to add the massive caveats in using 10:1 ratio snow maps. Ratios will likely end up lower than 10:1; it's only November, in addition to the aforementioned rain/snow mixing concerns. Max totals of around 10-12" in central Wisconsin will be my going call for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 In regards to the ratios, it depends where you are imo. LSE has 850 MB temps on the EURO between -5 and -10 with 2M temps between -1 and -3. Closer towards the track of the low, I would agree with the lower ratios, but out towards LSE and that area on the EURO I can see 10-12:1 ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Ground temps as of last evening from the DSM NWS office-- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA545 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014...DAILY 4 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES....BR DSM 1105 C DH1700/TSIRZZ::ID LOCATION 4 INCH TEMP:CSAI4 : CASTANA : 47DVNI4 : DAVENPORT : 51DMXI4 : JOHNSTON : 44DCRI4 : DECORAH : 42ICYI4 : IOWA CITY : 44KANI4 : KANAWHA : 463OI : LAMONI : MNHUI4 : NASHUA : 46OELI4 : OELWEIN : MTLDI4 : TOLEDO : 42.END$ Those are 4" temps.. wont take much more cooling. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 In regards to the ratios, it depends where you are imo. LSE has 850 MB temps on the EURO between -5 and -10 with 2M temps between -1 and -3. Closer towards the track of the low, I would agree with the lower ratios, but out towards LSE and that area on the EURO I can see 10-12:1 ratios. Fair enough, let's dive deeper into the matter of location.Using the ECMWF projected temperatures of a few degrees below freezing (minimum on the text chart posted above is -2.5, equivalent to ~27 degrees F). Noting that the going temperatures should range around -1.7 or so when the most precipitation falls, as that -2.5 value is a "blip" in the text, we can categorize the situation into a snow ratio table. Using the NWS Snowfall/Meltwater table, using the left-most column for these surface temperatures, 1.00" of QPF on that text output would come out to 10.0" of snow. If you want to dig a bit deeper and favor the lower end of that temperature spectrum, maximum snowfall closer to 12" or 13" would probably be in the cards. Snowfall table http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Been watching this storm with varying opinions. On one hand, as has been mentioned, model guidance does hold a bias to be too slow with Arctic fronts. This could eventually favor another southward shift, though with consistency with snow up in Wisconsin, I wouldn't be surprised to see that end up verifying. Yeah I've witnessed that point of yours before. Arctic air masses like to press southwards quicker and tighten up the baroclinic zone.It will be interesting to see how cranked up the NAM can get with this system. I can only imagine it's going to put out some insane numbers. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah, im not worried about snow not accumulating. I was just pointing out what our local met is saying. He is very conservative this far out. He does that with every system.I am hoping for a southward shift with the Euro!Snowman: Do you know if 18z and 6z runs have upper air parameters digested this season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Fair enough, let's dive deeper into the matter of location.Using the ECMWF projected temperatures of a few degrees below freezing (minimum on the text chart posted above is -2.5, equivalent to ~27 degrees F). Noting that the going temperatures should range around -1.7 or so when the most precipitation falls, as that -2.5 value is a "blip" in the text, we can categorize the situation into a snow ratio table. Using the NWS Snowfall/Meltwater table, using the left-most column for these surface temperatures, 1.00" of QPF on that text output would come out to 10.0" of snow. If you want to dig a bit deeper and favor the lower end of that temperature spectrum, maximum snowfall closer to 12" or 13" would probably be in the cards. Snowfall table http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html Don't disagree with you, but in the bullseye on the euro it's showing 1.4-1.5 QPF. Using 8:1 ratios would give you 11-12 inches or so. If you use 10:1 it would be closer to 14-15. We are talking about a system that is 96 hours out yet and probably going to change multiple times yet, so meh. I want to see consistency from the models in the 0z and 12z run tomorrow before getting excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 The end of the NAM run. Of course this will change many times! Henry M. at Accuweather is siding with the snow area further south.http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/the-cold-is-coming-but-warmth-ahead-of-the-frontsee-video/36943053 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 All I need is a 50-75 mile shift South on the Euro to see a significant snow storm. Either way, I'd be happy to see 3" of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 This is coming from the all too conservative Valley NWS........... IN ADDITION...AND WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A FEW RUNSNOW...ECMWF GENERATED MUCH LESS QPF ACROSS THE FA THAN THE GFS ANDCANADIAN. IN FACT...THE GFS AND CMC WOULD SUGGEST THERE COULD BESOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NRN 1/2 OR SO OF THE FAAS COLUMN COOLS AND A DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL PRECIP BAND SETS UP.MODEL BLEND MAY STILL BE TOO LOW WITH POPS..BUT SINCE ECMWFREMAINED MUCH DRIER...DID NOT ADJUST POP UPWARD JUST YET.IF WETTER GFS/CMC WOULD VERIFY COULD SEE THE NEED FOR LOWERINGTEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO IN THE TUE-THU PERIOD ALTHOUGH EVEN ABSENTPOTENTIAL SNOW COVER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 How does this storm look for SEMI?! Im thinking by the projected track that my area gets a rain/snow mix and possibly changing to all snow with no accumulation or maybe little accumulation. I need this baby to go a little more south. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah, im not worried about snow not accumulating. I was just pointing out what our local met is saying. He is very conservative this far out. He does that with every system.I am hoping for a southward shift with the Euro!Snowman: Do you know if 18z and 6z runs have upper air parameters digested this season?Aside from the usual aircraft OBS & such, no 6z/18z soundings will be released this winter.Relevant to the topic, however, is that after undergoing a study (can't recall who conducted it), the 6z and 18z runs were shown to maintain a relatively similar consistency/accuracy with the 0z/12z runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Don't disagree with you, but in the bullseye on the euro it's showing 1.4-1.5 QPF. Using 8:1 ratios would give you 11-12 inches or so. If you use 10:1 it would be closer to 14-15. We are talking about a system that is 96 hours out yet and probably going to change multiple times yet, so meh. I want to see consistency from the models in the 0z and 12z run tomorrow before getting excited. I don't have access to the Euro maps as of now (though I'm tempted to get back in to WxBell); I had assumed the text output showed max QPF for the storm.With 1.4" QPF projected, yeah, ~14" max accumulations would be expected, should the forecast verify as-is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 18z GFS looking healthier from its 12z run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 18z GFS looking healthier from its 12z run...Another 50 miles south and we are all smiling! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Actually, it still seems to me its shoving the energy to fast to the east still. Nonetheless, still painting a nice 1st snowstorm of the season for the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Through 96, a lot more to come: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_asnow_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.pngCheck out the placement of the ULL in SE Canada above, then look at the 18z GFS....stark differences and this is why the map above has the storm cutting north earlier than the 18z GFS operational. IMO, the placement of where this feature sets up will determine the storm track of this system. This is why on the 18z GFS the track is farther south and ultimately doesnt cut up north. Past experiences tell me this feature will want to push south and correct farther west (slightly) so maybe the GFS is hinting at that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Check out the placement of the ULL in SE Canada above, then look at the 18z GFS....stark differences and this is why the map above has the storm cutting north earlier than the 18z GFS operational. IMO, the placement of where this feature sets up will determine the storm track of this system. This is why on the 18z GFS the track is farther south and ultimately doesnt cut up north. Past experiences tell me this feature will want to push south and correct farther west (slightly) so maybe the GFS is hinting at that. Bastardi was getting at that in one of his discussions yesterday. The trough and ULL is placed too far east and will correct west. The low in Quebec or Ontario will acts to drag the cold air down in front of the Plains low. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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