December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Focusing  right now with the initial trough HR 54-72...as it's fairly close to dropping some goodies down over us...

[TT-SEA]

Focusing  right now with the initial trough HR 54-72...as it's real close to dropping some goodies down over us...

 

[TT-SEA]

Kinda wish I was in Vegas today.

 

41 and cloudy right now.

 

But there might be other reasons to want to be in Vegas on New Years Eve!

[HighlandExperience]

So, if I said "I hope the models show blocking after HR 180 between 140-150 W, then maybe we'll get some goodies." That would bother you?

 

DJ we have mostly had poop.

[BLI snowman]

41 and cloudy right now.

 

But there might be other reasons to want to be in Vegas on New Years Eve!

 

Yeah, they get days like this in most winters. It's not as mild there as most people think.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, they get days like this in most winters. It's not as mild there as most people think.

 

We were there in January 2013.  People were absolutely debilitated by a breezy 40 degrees.  Seriously.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice....and not that surprising considering everything. The thing that's really impressive is how consistently good the analog composites have been. I like our chances, but I'm certainly not ready to make any kind of firm call for another cold wave just yet.

Agreed and perfect approach to take on this.

[Phil]

How about 1948-49? 1949-50? 1955-56? 1971-72?

All featured baroclinic PVs..no data on 1948-49, though

[BLI snowman]

We were there in January 2013.  People were absolutely debilitated by a breezy 40 degrees.  Seriously.  

 

The 4 inches there in 2008 shut the city down. Lots of transplants and idiot tourists think that because it's the desert and there's palm trees, it can't get wintry. 

[TT-SEA]

We were there in January 2013. People were absolutely debilitated by a breezy 40 degrees. Seriously.

We were in Palm Springs and the same thing happened. I think it's based on people's expectations because most people there are from some place cold.

[TT-SEA]

You need a break.

I am totally fine and enjoying this beautiful weather. My favorite winter weather is sunny and chilly... even without snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to Weather.... HR 384 on the Op sure looks weird!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123118/gfs_z500a_namer_49.png

[TT-SEA]

Back to Weather.... HR 384 on the Op sure looks weird!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123118/gfs_z500a_namer_49.png

 

 

The current pattern is also strange so it should be discounted.

[richard mann]

.. As goes the weather. Evidently.

[TT-SEA]

Here are the analogs for the upcoming pattern based on the 12Z GFS:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

 

 

Seems like there are some good ones in there... just not seeing the models blink yet.

 

I am actually more hopeful for snow and cold because Jim says something is coming... I don't know much about tropical forcings but it seems like our window might be open longer.

 

I have no problem with his analysis.    He might be right... and I hope he is.    But of all people.. he should know why people would get down about the weather.    

 

Personally... I already love this winter.    An incredible number of dry days and sunshine hours since November 1st.    Much like last year... and the opposite of 2012-13.

[richard mann]

-
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICESEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED DEC 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT WILL
REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
212 PM PST WED DEC 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEW
YEAR...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY ONSHORE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN OUR FAR NORTHERN AND CASCADED
ZONES LATER FRI INTO SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. ... Medford.

http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-2100B.jpg

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=58897   (post no. 43)

.. What we're looking at more currently, per my view, is colder air's, more primary, having moved retrograde WSW, the result of a "blast" of more Arctic based cold having moved southward, more originally resting over Northern Central Asia. .And, with this cold's, if where having been more mainly focused and headed, having been limited where having been moving more directly south, to the only more northern mid-latitudes more to the East. This with the cold more over the greater West at this point, more residual, having been allowed to "drift" WSW, with over-all cold air's more through the mid-latitudes more at and to this point and over the past several days, having been slowing its main pace and progress more eastward. ... 
 
 
(.. cont., further ahead, post no. 7726. … With graphic animations.)

[MossMan]

Here are the analogs for the upcoming pattern based on the 12Z GFS:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

 

 

Seems like there are some good ones in there... just not seeing the models blink yet.

 

I am actually more hopeful for snow and cold because Jim says something is coming... I don't know much about tropical forcings but it seems like our window might be open longer.

 

I have no problem with his analysis.    He might be right... and I hope he is.

I should do my homework, but I only know the Dec 1998 event well out of all those analogs. I wouldn't mind a repeat of that one.

[Gradient Keeper]

... Not yet

[Deweydog]

The 4 inches there in 2008 shut the city down. Lots of transplants and idiot tourists think that because it's the desert and there's palm trees, it can't get wintry.

It felt very appropriate for the surroundings to us. Got down into the 20's a couple nights.

[MossMan]

... Not yet

That Jim and Tim share a beer and a laugh?

 

35 currently at work, probably around 33 at my house I would imagine.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe we go the other route... crush the block and get to cold maritime influence.   At least the mountains would be buried and maybe something else will evolve.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht.gif

[Deweydog]

Maybe we go the other route... crush the block and get to cold maritime influence. At least the mountains would be buried and maybe something else will evolve.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht.gif

The return of halo boy!

[TT-SEA]

Sledding on Monday with some relatives from San Diego... highly suggest doing this to get a snow fix.   

 

[TT-SEA]

The return of halo boy!

 

 

BS.   Absolutely stand by my comments.     

 

I am not saying anything is wrong with the analysis... I have no idea what will happen.    

[MossMan]

So did the 18z improve at all over the 12z for this weekend? I want to keep seeing slight improvements!

[TT-SEA]

So did the 18z improve at all over the 12z for this weekend? I want to keep seeing slight improvements!

 

 

Does not appear so... but I like you liking your own comment!

[MossMan]

Sounds a bit promising if I am reading this correctly.

 

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED DECEMBER 31 2014

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 08 - 14 2015 

TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS WITHIN 
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. A PREDICTED RIDGE OVER ALASKA FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CANADA, HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT 
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, KEEPING A SHARP 
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE CONUS. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE MODELS TO 
LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE WEST BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIOD, 
ALTHOUGH THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC AT MID-LATITUDES 
SHOULD REDUCE CHANCES OF THE COLD CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN 
CONUS. HOWEVER, MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA IS PREDICTED TO BE UNDER NORTHERLY 
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AND ANY INTENSIFICATION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH COULD BRING 
COLD AIR FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THUS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS 
FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN MAY BE EXPECTED FROM THE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL 
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER
 

[Prairiedog]

The mildness (during the day) you're referring to is generally confined to the Western Basin.  Last Saturday those areas in NW flow were rain-shadowed while the East Basin Rise saw 2-4" in snowfall.  Much colder over here because of it.  7F currently.

 

Def liking the 6z.  Stays cold with snow chances throughout.

Wenatchee stayed cold and our trip up to Winthrop stayed cold, temps in the low 20's up to Pateros.  Once we headed up to the Methow Valley temps dropped all the way up.  Winthrop was 14f when we pulled in at 1pm.  About a foot of snow on the ground.  Great powder.  Almost two feet at 2,800ft at Sun Mountain Lodge.  Temp down to 10f right now, headed to near zero.  Got to love the low humidity.  Absolutely the place to live if you like cold and snow.  Magnificent place.  Saw numerous bald eagles.  Caught one with the camera feeding on a coyote kill of a mule deer.  Wild turkeys roaming through peoples yards in town.  I do a lot of bird photography and I'm in Heaven with all the raptors. 

[Gradient Keeper]

That Jim and Tim share a beer and a laugh?

 

35 currently at work, probably around 33 at my house I would imagine.

Not a bad idea

[Gradient Keeper]

Sounds a bit promising if I am reading this correctly.

 

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD

300 PM EST WED DECEMBER 31 2014

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 08 - 14 2015 

 

TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS WITHIN 

THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. A PREDICTED RIDGE OVER ALASKA FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL 

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CANADA, HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT 

ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, KEEPING A SHARP 

TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE CONUS. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE MODELS TO 

LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE WEST BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIOD, 

ALTHOUGH THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC AT MID-LATITUDES 

SHOULD REDUCE CHANCES OF THE COLD CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN 

CONUS. HOWEVER, MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA IS PREDICTED TO BE UNDER NORTHERLY 

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AND ANY INTENSIFICATION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH COULD BRING 

COLD AIR FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THUS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS 

FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN MAY BE EXPECTED FROM THE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL 

AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  

 

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

 

Sounds encouraging perhaps..... I see 18z GFS 6-10 and 8-14 day Analog Composite continues to look excellent for us.

[Jesse]

Decent cold event out this way the past few days. 39/29 on Monday, 29/23 yesterday and 30/21 today. No snow but it looks like the surrounding mountains received a lot above 2,500'.

 

Heading into town tonight to celebrate. I am also planning to propose to my girlfriend when the clock strikes midnight!

 

Hope everyone has a safe/happy New Year!

[snow_wizard]

Sounds encouraging perhaps..... I see 18z GFS 6-10 and 8-14 day Analog Composite continues to look excellent for us.

The consistently good analog composites have to mean something. In reality the 18z GFS comes close to getting good a couple of times. That one situation around day 9 is especially interesting.

[snow_wizard]

Decent cold event out this way the past few days. 39/29 on Monday, 29/23 yesterday and 30/21 today. No snow but it looks like the surrounding mountains received a lot above 2,500'.

 

Heading into town tonight to celebrate. I am also planning to propose to my girlfriend when the clock strikes midnight!

 

Hope everyone has a safe/happy New Year!

Congrats!

 

Also...nice little cold snap you have going out there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Decent cold event out this way the past few days. 39/29 on Monday, 29/23 yesterday and 30/21 today. No snow but it looks like the surrounding mountains received a lot above 2,500'.

 

Heading into town tonight to celebrate. I am also planning to propose to my girlfriend when the clock strikes midnight!

 

Hope everyone has a safe/happy New Year!

That is awesome dude.

[snow_wizard]

One thing we know for sure....2015 will average below normal for at least some period of time during its existence!

[Jesse]

That is awesome dude.

 

Thanks buddy.

[Parksvillewx]

Decent cold event out this way the past few days. 39/29 on Monday, 29/23 yesterday and 30/21 today. No snow but it looks like the surrounding mountains received a lot above 2,500'.

 

Heading into town tonight to celebrate. I am also planning to propose to my girlfriend when the clock strikes midnight!

 

Hope everyone has a safe/happy New Year!

 

Congrats!

[Guest Winterdog]

snow_wizard, on 31 Dec 2014 - 4:54 PM, said:

One thing we know for sure....2015 will average below normal for at least some period of time during its existence!

Yeah, at least through most of the day tomorrow.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting!  This is purely computer generated, but it goes to show the stuff I've been talking about has some merit.

 

[TT-SEA]

Decent cold event out this way the past few days. 39/29 on Monday, 29/23 yesterday and 30/21 today. No snow but it looks like the surrounding mountains received a lot above 2,500'.

 

Heading into town tonight to celebrate. I am also planning to propose to my girlfriend when the clock strikes midnight!

 

Hope everyone has a safe/happy New Year!

 

 

Congratulations!