[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

The LR EPS has notably improved vs 00z. Particularly at the 500mb level.

+Precip departures creeping south over the NE-Pacific and into NorCal. 

Due for a really wet year.

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

The LR EPS has notably improved vs 00z. Particularly at the 500mb level.

+Precip departures creeping south over the NE-Pacific and into NorCal. 

If we’re talking wildfires - I’m much more concerned about the inland forests than the coastal redwood forests in CA.

Fun fact: Eureka, CA has never recorded a single 90 degree day. In nearly a century of records. 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Snow is never done in March. These days it’s a vastly more reliable winter month than December.

Sometimes April is too.

March maybe became the new November in parts of the northwest. 

Can it snow on Easter over here? Since tornado season is in full swing I imagine not too many snowstorms by that date. 
It would usually still snow in K-Falls on Easter.

[Omegaraptor]

Not bad for Athens on March 10

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

March maybe became the new November in parts of the northwest. 

Can it snow on Easter over here? Since tornado season is in full swing I imagine not too many snowstorms by that date. 
It would usually still snow in K-Falls on Easter.

Oh, easily. We had snow showers on May 9th in 2020.

The cool shots become increasingly transient beyond the equinox (and then disappear entirely in June), but can still pack a punch into mid-May.

That transition from dynamic spring to sticky summer weather is usually very quick, though. 

[gusky]

Well this threw me off... I suspect it'll say no snow by next forecast run

[Deweydog]

Something to watch!

Just how deep can PDX make it into March without ringing the 60 degree Fahrenheit bell???

Can we make it to 3/31 as we did during the LIA of 2011????

(no)

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Something to watch!

Just how deep can PDX make it into March without ringing the 60 degree Fahrenheit bell???

Can we make it to 3/31 as we did during the LIA of 2011????

(no)

12Z ECMWF showed Saturday being pretty close.    Nail biter!  

 

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF showed Saturday being pretty close.    Nail biter!  

 

Decent chance PDX does it tomorrow and Saturday.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Decent chance PDX does it tomorrow and Saturday.

I’m here to witness this great moment as it happens!  

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Something to watch!

Just how deep can PDX make it into March without ringing the 60 degree Fahrenheit bell???

Can we make it to 3/31 as we did during the LIA of 2011????

(no)

12 days

[TacomaWaWx]

47/27 today. Got cloudy mid afternoon. 

[Phishy Wx]

we should do some prognosticating 

 

When will your location (closest Airport) do the following

 

My example is KGEG (Spokane)

 

Since we've already had a few 50+ days

 

60 degree day:  4/9

 

70 degree day:  5/1

 

80 degree day:  6/12

 

90 degree day:  6/29

 

100+ degree day:  7/23

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

we should do some prognosticating 

 

When will your location (closest Airport) do the following

 

My example is KGEG (Spokane)

 

Since we've already had a few 50+ days

 

60 degree day:  4/9

 

70 degree day:  5/1

 

80 degree day:  6/12

 

90 degree day:  6/29

 

100+ degree day:  7/23

What about 110+ and 120+ ?

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

What about 110+ and 120+ ?

all of august. lol

[Meatyorologist]

Got down to 24°F last night here. Very nice overperformance. Tonight it will get close to freezing.

But yes, aside from errant snow showers under Springtime postfrontal troughs, winter is over.

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

we should do some prognosticating 

 

When will your location (closest Airport) do the following

 

My example is KGEG (Spokane)

 

Since we've already had a few 50+ days

 

60 degree day:  4/9

 

70 degree day:  5/1

 

80 degree day:  6/12

 

90 degree day:  6/29

 

100+ degree day:  7/23

MJO is gonna be cycling through IO and Maritime Continent for a while so I think 70 is gonna wait until April this year at Corvallis. I’ll go 4/10 for first 70.

First 80: 4/28

First 90: 6/14

First 100: 7/21

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty unlikely we hit 100 again here this summer…I suspect we get to 70 and 80 at some point in May. First 90 in late July. 

[Meatyorologist]

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

we should do some prognosticating 

 

When will your location (closest Airport) do the following

 

My example is KGEG (Spokane)

 

Since we've already had a few 50+ days

 

60 degree day:  4/9

 

70 degree day:  5/1

 

80 degree day:  6/12

 

90 degree day:  6/29

 

100+ degree day:  7/23

(Next 60°F: 4/2)

70°F: 4/23

80°F: 5/29

90°F: 7/16

We will not have a 100°F day this year.

[MossMan]

I mowed! It’s over! 

[GHweatherChris]

Got down to 22 degrees this morning, blah blah blah, the forum seems to prim and proper now!!  Even this thread usually has some snarkiness and joks, but all of a sudden everyone is being super polite, doesn't feel like some good ol fun ribbing is allowed now.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Got down to 22 degrees this morning, blah blah blah, the forum seems to prim and proper now!!  Even this thread usually has some snarkiness and joks, but all of a sudden everyone is being super polite, doesn't feel like some good ol fun ribbing is allowed now.

Go to the new political thread, there is shirtless Putin porn going on over there! 

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Go to the new political thread, there is shirtless Putin porn going on over there! 

Nah, gonna avoid that as much as possible, that's why we are in this weird forum predicament all of a sudden, not gonna contribute to that.

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I mowed! It’s over! 

Nice!

[Deweydog]

21 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Got down to 22 degrees this morning, blah blah blah, the forum seems to prim and proper now!!  Even this thread usually has some snarkiness and joks, but all of a sudden everyone is being super polite, doesn't feel like some good ol fun ribbing is allowed now.

Gone are the days of hating on Tim with impunity.

[jakerepp]

Hey all, checked out some model homes down here in Estrella today. Things are in motion at this point.

Meanwhile, played golf yesterday with my old man and randomly got paired with a twosome that featured Eagles legendary Linebacker Seth Joyner. My dad, being from Philly, was giddy.

Weather hasn't been too bad either, but not quite warm enough to go to the pools.

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

I anticipate Tim banning anyone who roots for rain on any weekends or major holidays. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I anticipate Tim banning anyone who roots for rain on any weekends or major holidays. 

I would never do that!

[jakerepp]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would never do that!

Oh geez I leave town and Tim becomes a mod?

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

we should do some prognosticating 

 

When will your location (closest Airport) do the following

 

My example is KGEG (Spokane)

 

Since we've already had a few 50+ days

 

60 degree day:  4/9

 

70 degree day:  5/1

 

80 degree day:  6/12

 

90 degree day:  6/29

 

100+ degree day:  7/23

60+ already happened

70+ already happened

80+ already happened

90+ 5/5

100+ 7/17

[TT-SEA]

Just now, jakerepp said:

Oh geez I leave town and Tim becomes a mod?

There are lots of us now... its a great plan.   We have checks and balances.   

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

60+ already happened

70+ already happened

80+ already happened

90+ 4/20

100+ 7/17

In 2019... we knocked off the first 3 in March    Just barely touching 80 here on 3/20.   And then don't think we ever reached the last 2 all summer.    

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Got down to 22 degrees this morning, blah blah blah, the forum seems to prim and proper now!!  Even this thread usually has some snarkiness and joks, but all of a sudden everyone is being super polite, doesn't feel like some good ol fun ribbing is allowed now.

snark all you want.  I'll try to snark back

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In 2019... we knocked off the first 3 in March    Just barely touching 80 here on 3/20.   And then don't think we ever reached the last 2 all summer.    

I could live with that.

Back in the mid-19th century we had a summer with only 6 days at/above 90°F, which is absolutely mind boggling. Would love to know what that pattern looked like and how it came about, considering now we easily reach 90+ even under troughing.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I could live with that.

Back in the mid-19th century we had a summer with only 6 days at/above 90°F, which is absolutely mind boggling. Would love to know what that pattern looked like and how it came about, considering now we easily reach 90+ even under troughing.

 

The most +90 days here I’ve recorded is just 5…only ones being last summer 2015 and 2009. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS (Day 1-10) 500mb Height Anomaly

10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Long range(Day 6+) trending to the wetter and whiter EURO.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

38F and partly cloudy.

[Meatyorologist]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

I could live with that.

Back in the mid-19th century we had a summer with only 6 days at/above 90°F, which is absolutely mind boggling. Would love to know what that pattern looked like and how it came about, considering now we easily reach 90+ even under troughing.

 

Flipping through some of DC's records, December is night and day. While in recent decades even a subfreezing high is hard to come by, during the late 19th century there were incredibly severe cold snaps almost every 3-5 years during that month, to the severity of Dec 1989 (though not usually the length)

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

snark all you want.  I'll try to snark back

Nah, no fun anymore.

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nah, no fun anymore.

How’s anything changed really besides some more people have mod capabilities? It’s not like any new rules were announced or anything. Pretty much all the people with the mod access care about the place and don’t want it to change if I had to guess.