June 2022 - Summer Begins

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

And for people griping about the persistence of the wet pattern, the perspective that a stark bone dry 90 day period soon awaits us seems totally lost on them. Prisoners of the moment. It's really not a question of if but of when. 

 

It should turn much nicer but you don't know for sure until it actually starts happening.    July 1983 and 1993 happened... and the wait would be another month and a half at this point.    That would be a 4 month stretch in the warm season with rain almost every day.   Not sure how it can get more depressing than that for most people.   

Either way... we have had lots of persistently wet patterns in the April - June period in our history that still had meaningful breaks.   Its unprecedented to get to this point in the year out here and not have a couple decent 3-day sunny breaks.    That makes a big difference during the wait for our normal nice summer pattern to take hold in July.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What does this mean? Snow? 

Summary: Now that they’ve been able to map the sea floor, it has become clear that the eruption was much larger than initially thought. It is surmised that the measured increase in atmospheric sulphur was as low as it was because, being mostly a submarine eruption, the sea seems to have absorbed most of that element (in the form dissolved sulphates and sulphites).

Since there’s not as much sulphur in the stratosphere, it’s less certain a volcanic winter is on its way. As I posted a day or two ago, there really is not much experience with an eruption like this, which did affect the upper atmosphere, but lofted mostly water vapor (and probably plenty of sodium and chloride given the source of the water) into it. The experts don’t think a volcanic winter is on its way, but it really all depends on what happens as the various erupted components now marinate together with pre-existing materials in a high UV environment.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

It should turn much nicer but you don't know for sure until it actually starts happening.    July 1983 and 1993 happened... and the wait would be another month and a half at this point.    That would be a 4.5 month stretch in the warm season with rain almost every day.   Not sure how it can get more depressing than that for most people.   

Either way... we have had lots of persistently wet patterns in the April - June period in our history that still had meaningful breaks.   Its unprecedented to get to this point in the year out here and not have a couple decent 3-day sunny breaks.    

Yes, summers from 40 years ago and 30 years ago... It's possible, but extremely unlikely we see that. 

 

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

And for people griping about the persistence of the wet pattern, the perspective that a stark bone dry 90 day period soon awaits us seems totally lost on them. Prisoners of the moment. It's really not a question of if but of when. 

Absolutely true. 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

It should turn much nicer but you don't know for sure until it actually starts happening.    July 1983 and 1993 happened... and the wait would be another month and a half at this point.    That would be a 4 month stretch in the warm season with rain almost every day.   Not sure how it can get more depressing than that for most people.   

Either way... we have had lots of persistently wet patterns in the April - June period in our history that still had meaningful breaks.   Its unprecedented to get to this point in the year out here and not have a couple decent 3-day sunny breaks.    

July 1983 and July 1993 were very pleasant months for the PNW, with the serious heat kept in check, numerous thunderstorms, no serious fires, and pleasant afternoons that most people could enjoy. And of course both were followed by some extended dry stretches like we always get, including a devastatingly dry September in 1993 that featured a whopping trace of precipitation (so much fun!!) and jump started the rather significant drought that persisted until the end of October 1994.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Summary: Now that they’ve been able to map the sea floor, it has become clear that the eruption was much larger than initially thought. It is surmised that the measured increase in atmospheric sulphur was as low as it was because, being mostly a submarine eruption, the sea seems absorbed most of that element (in the form dissolved sulphates and sulphites).

Since there’s not as much sulphur in the stratosphere, it’s less certain a volcanic winter is on its way. As I posted a day or two, there really is not much experience with an eruption like this, which did affect the upper atmosphere, but lofted mostly water vapor (and probably plenty of sodium and chloride given the source of the water) into it. The experts don’t think a volcanic winter is on its way, but it really all depends on what happens as the various erupted components now marinate together with pre-existing materials in a high UV environment.

Great explanation. Thanks. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, summers from 40 years ago and 30 years ago... It's possible, but extremely unlikely we see that.

Prior to 2013, people were saying the same thing about Eugene tying its old record of -10°F. Last fall, local weather weenies were talking about how it was probably never going to hit -15°C or colder at YVR again.

Yes, there has been warming, but it’s still a small enough amount of it that variation can overwhelm it. Never say never.

[Anti Marine Layer]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was thinking that earlier today. Actually waited about an hour to go into the office this morning so I could enjoy my coffee on the front porch and listen to the rain. It has been nice. 

 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

July 1983 and July 1993 were very pleasant months for the PNW, with the serious heat kept in check, numerous thunderstorms, no serious fires, and pleasant afternoons that most people could enjoy. And of course both were followed by some extended dry stretches like we always get, including a devastatingly dry September in 1993 that featured a whopping trace of precipitation (so much fun!!) and jump started the rather significant drought that persisted until the end of October 1994.

 

Thanks Justin!   

My point is that we are in an unprecedented stretch of persistent rain... both 1983 and 1993 had decent weather in May and then the unusually persistent rain started.   It only lasted for 2 months in those years.   We are at 2.5 months now and if it decides to go 1983/1993 on us now then it will be 4 months.    Still waiting to see if we get a 1984/2010 type flip during the last part of June.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

July 1983 and July 1993 were very pleasant months for the PNW, with the serious heat kept in check, numerous thunderstorms, no serious fires, and pleasant afternoons that most people could enjoy. And of course both were followed by some extended dry stretches like we always get, including a devastatingly dry September in 1993 that featured a whopping trace of precipitation (so much fun!!) and jump started the rather significant drought that persisted until the end of October 1994.

 

Looked at the PRISM data for here from July 1993. Looks like our daily max on the month was 79 and there were 6 days with 70+ highs. 13 days with measurable precip, though only one day with over 1/2", 2.61" total, good for 7th wettest July. PRISM shows it as the coolest July in the period of record with a monthly mean of 57.1. 

July 1983 was the wettest July in the period of record by a wide margin with 4.84". With a monthly mean of 58.8 it was tied for 9th coolest July (Only 1993 and 2011 have been cooler since.). Looking at the daily values there were 2 days over 80, including an 87 late in the month. However, unlike 1993 which had no sub-60 highs there were 5 in July 1983. Measurable precip fell on 18 days including 4 days on which over 1/2" fell. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanks Justin!   

My point is that we are in an unprecedented stretch of persistent rain... both 1983 and 1993 had decent weather in May and then the unusually persistent rain started.   It only lasted for 2 months in those years.   We are at 2.5 months now and if it decides to go 1983/1993 on us now then it will be 4 months.    Still waiting to see if we get a 1984/2010 type flip during the last part of June.

There's no model that looks remotely wet right now for the last third of June. To say otherwise would be pure histrionics. Just because nothing is currently pointing towards heat doesn't mean an overwhelmingly dry period isn't about to unfold.

Edited June 17, 2022 by BLI snowman

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looked at the PRISM data for here from July 1993. Looks like our daily max on the month was 79 and there were 6 days with 70+ highs. 13 days with measurable precip, though only one day with over 1/2", 2.61" total, good for 7th wettest July. PRISM shows it as the coolest July in the period of record with a monthly mean of 57.1. 

July 1983 was the wettest July in the period of record by a wide margin with 4.84". With a monthly mean of 58.8 it was tied for 9th coolest July (Only 1993 and 2011 have been cooler since.). Looking at the daily values there were 2 days over 80, including an 87 late in the month. However, unlike 1993 which had no sub-60 highs there were 5 in July 1983. Measurable precip fell on 18 days including 4 days on which over 1/2" fell. 

July 18-19, 1983 was one of the better midsummer convective events that I'm aware of for NW OR and SW WA. Strong, almost severe squall line moved in overnight and dropped a half inch to an inch of rain on everyone, along with some hail, wind, and hours of frequent lightning. I'm sure many folks were pretty depressed by it.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looked at the PRISM data for here from July 1993. Looks like our daily max on the month was 79 and there were 6 days with 70+ highs. 13 days with measurable precip, though only one day with over 1/2", 2.61" total, good for 7th wettest July. PRISM shows it as the coolest July in the period of record with a monthly mean of 57.1. 

July 1983 was the wettest July in the period of record by a wide margin with 4.84". With a monthly mean of 58.8 it was tied for 9th coolest July (Only 1993 and 2011 have been cooler since.). Looking at the daily values there were 2 days over 80, including an 87 late in the month. However, unlike 1993 which had no sub-60 highs there were 5 in July 1983. Measurable precip fell on 18 days including 4 days on which over 1/2" fell. 

In 1993... it rained on 23 days in July here.     That would be crazy at this point given its rained on 76 out of the last 80 days.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There's no model that looks remotely wet right now for the last third of June. To say otherwise would be pure histrionics. Just because nothing is currently pointing towards heat doesn't mean an overwhelmingly dry period isn't about to unfold.

This is true. Even the wettest ensemble members show no more than a couple tenths of an inch in NW Oregon after this weekend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In 1993... it rained on 23 days in July here.     That would be crazy at this point given its rained on 76 out of the last 80 days.    

1993 also had a very dry February. Be careful what you wish for. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There's no model that looks remotely wet right now for the last third of June. To say otherwise would be pure histrionics. Just because nothing is currently pointing towards heat doesn't mean an overwhelmingly dry period isn't about to unfold.

I am not looking for heat at all.    Just a 3-day sunny period which is so basic and happens literally every year in April-June.   It has been teased for almost 3 months in the models and has not happened.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In 1993... it rained on 23 days in July here.     That would be crazy at this point given its rained on 76 out of the last 80 days.    

FYI, you need at least 30 rain days in July to maintain your running average of 95% (76/80) rain days.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1993 also had a very dry February. Be careful what you wish for. 

A dry February is fine, so long as January features an arctic blast with significant lowland snow.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

FYI, you need at least 30 rain days in July to maintaine your running average of 95% (76/80) rain days.

We would smash the April-July rain days record if we go July 1993 now.    1984 was the year we have beat out this year... and it went totally dry in late June and rained on one day in July in 1984.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not looking for heat at all.    Just a 3-day sunny period which is so basic and happens literally every year in April-June.   It has been teased for almost 3 months in the models and has not happened.   

Looks like plenty of dry days coming up for us here. And in Seattle. Not sure about out in the jungle.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like plenty of dry days coming up for us here. And in Seattle. Not sure about out in the jungle.

Well... I am comparing jungle climo to actual jungle weather and a 3-day dry stretch has never taken this long to happen here.

This is the best part of each day... the GFS and GEM show a return to reasonably normal weather and the ECMWF not come out yet.     The ECMWF usually ends up showing 9 or 10 days with rain and its been right every time so far so we would today be any different?

[RentonHill]

Most would say this was just what we needed if you asked back during the dry stretch and after last year. Actually it seems a bit crazy that there is still average or below normal precip spots out there

 

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There's no model that looks remotely wet right now for the last third of June. To say otherwise would be pure histrionics. Just because nothing is currently pointing towards heat doesn't mean an overwhelmingly dry period isn't about to unfold.

I’m not sure it will be done “overwhelmingly dry” either? At least with respect to average.

First half of July might head fake that way, but if anything guidance is trending towards keeping the background state stronger through the summer.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Most would say this was just what we needed if you asked back during the dry stretch and after last year. Actually it seems a bit crazy that there is still average or below normal precip spots out there

 

Eric Snodgrass has talked about that... the areas in Montana are places that are rain shadowed with zonal flow.  

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure it will be done “overwhelmingly dry” either? At least with respect to average.

First half of July might head fake that way, but if anything guidance is trending towards keeping the background state stronger through the summer.

It’s pretty difficult to get a roaring jet pattern in late July.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure it will be done “overwhelmingly dry” either? At least with respect to average.

First half of July might head fake that way, but if anything guidance is trending towards keeping the background state stronger through the summer.

Overwhelmingly dry is our summer climo. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Most would say this was just what we needed if you asked back during the dry stretch and after last year. Actually it seems a bit crazy that there is still average or below normal precip spots out there

 

Max temps have been impressively cool. Minimums have been around to slightly above average here at least due to all the cloud cover. 

[Phil]

Crazy how downsloping can deepen the boundary layer enough to turn 18°C at 850mb into 100°F at the surface.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDCA

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 hour precip

The Dalles: 0.21"

Eugene: 0.21"

Salem: 0.15"

PDX: 0.01"

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overwhelmingly dry is our summer climo. 

I was actually going to post the exact same thing.  

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overwhelmingly dry is our summer climo. 

Maybe instead of overwhelmingly dry it’ll just be dry.

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure it will be done “overwhelmingly dry” either? At least with respect to average.

First half of July might head fake that way, but if anything guidance is trending towards keeping the background state stronger through the summer.

I'm just talking in absolute terms, not relative ones. Average from this point forward essentially is overwhelmingly dry.

[MossMan]

Currently 54 and cloudy. Pulled the winter coat back out of the closet. Both of my Canadian friends on FB were complaining hardcore about how horrific this season has been so far. At this point I would be beyond ecstatic if we could piece together 3 straight days in the low 70’s with a little sun. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

53F with some light rain. We've had 0.25" so far and 3.11" on the month. As long as we keep temps down, then we hopefully shouldn't have low level smoke concerns. Maybe I won't be posting many ceremonial 90F+ NFL players this year.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 54 and cloudy. Pulled the winter coat back out of the closet. Both of my Canadian friends on FB were complaining hardcore about how horrific this season has been so far. At this point I would be beyond ecstatic if we could piece together 3 straight days in the low 70’s with a little sun. 

Speaking of Canada, it’s actually sunny in Vancouver right now. It’s not exactly super-warm, but the strong June sunshine and lack of wind helps compensate for that.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF hangs back more of the trough later in the week... similar to its 12Z run yesterday. 

Not a bad pattern overall though.    Its sunny most afternoons from Tuesday - Sunday and its basically dry.    Pretty close to climo... morning clouds and afternoon sun and pleasant temps.    It would be a VAST improvement over what we had recently.   

But I still don't trust it.    I have been burned so many times now falling for false hope in the models that I won't believe it until it actually happens.    It wouldn't take much for that pattern to morph into what we have now on future runs which is craptastic for summer.  

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

In 1993... it rained on 23 days in July here.     That would be crazy at this point given its rained on 76 out of the last 80 days.    

You said you were done talking about rain stats.

[TT-SEA]

55 and raining at SEA at noon on close to the longest day of the year.    Craptastic is an understatement.   Particularly considering the last 2.5 months.     It would be fine if we just had a week of sun and temps in the 70s.    But we can't even manage 1 day of that weather.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Following an absolutely brutal Norovirus outbreak () in our family, we're heading out tomorrow for a five-day camping trip along the Pacific Coast Highway of Eastern Washington: the Grand Coulee area. Couple nights at Blue Lake, couple nights at Steamboat Rock. Plenty of geologic wonders to enjoy. Weather looks fairly moderate too for out there, which is perfect for us.

Average temp this month at my home weather station has been 54.5°F, impressive! 

Oh crap... do you know where you got it?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You said you were done talking about rain stats.

Got pulled back in!  Totally my fault.  

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Following an absolutely brutal Norovirus outbreak () in our family, we're heading out tomorrow for a five-day camping trip along the Pacific Coast Highway of Eastern Washington: the Grand Coulee area. Couple nights at Blue Lake, couple nights at Steamboat Rock. Plenty of geologic wonders to enjoy. Weather looks fairly moderate too for out there, which is perfect for us.

Average temp this month at my home weather station has been 54.5°F, impressive! 

Love that area, enjoy!!