December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

The upcoming pattern sure looks odd.

Pretty similar to November with the persistence of the cut off vort max.

[TT-SEA]

"But daddy, I thought us upper middle class snobs NEVER had to live with disappointment?"

 

Hard lesson to learn!

[TT-SEA]

Pretty similar to November with the persistence of the cut off vort max.

 

 

Sensing a return to a warm and wet pattern later in January.    Maybe some AR fun.

[Deweydog]

Sensing a return to a warm and wet pattern later in January. Maybe some AR fun.

Wet, dry, super wet, dry, super snowy.

 

That's my call.

[jcmcgaffey]

Heading to Leavenworth tomorrow for a day trip, any advice for a good place to have breakfast? Also is there a park or anywhere off the main drag that we could just go play in the snow for a bit? Not too picky since our daughter is only 2 but would be nice to not be having fun on the side of the road in the dirty sandy snow haha!

I usually take my kids to either the ski jump park to the north of town or up at the top of Blewett pass has some really nice spots if you aren't going highway 2. The little hill at the downtown main square is actually pretty fun because of all the other kids.

[TT-SEA]

I usually take my kids to either the ski jump park to the north of town or up at the top of Blewett pass has some really nice spots if you aren't going highway 2. The little hill at the downtown main square is actually pretty fun because of all the other kids.

He is probably going over Hwy 2. Maybe stop at Stevens... but might be too deep to play in there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Skies have cleared here. It was 44 and raining in Salem. 33 and clear up here. 

[snow_wizard]

Mark's going with a 40/30 spread. Hope you have some nails to bite!

 

This is a case where a few days will really allow the cold air to build up.  It has managed to clear up here so it should drop below freezing tonight.  I expect it will be quite chilly by the weekend.  I would like to see a couple of days with freezing fog lasting through the day.  That is no easy trick around here.  I remember when I was a kid the trees got flocked like they normally do in Central WA.  Not sure if this situation will get that cold or not.

[MossMan]

I usually take my kids to either the ski jump park to the north of town or up at the top of Blewett pass has some really nice spots if you aren't going highway 2. The little hill at the downtown main square is actually pretty fun because of all the other kids.

Thanks!! Yeah like Tim mentioned I will be taking hwy 2 and did think about stopping up there but also like Tim mentioned I have a feeling it will be too deep to play in. We will check out the little hill in the main square, think I remember that spot. It's been about 15yrs since I have spent any time there and that was during the summer. First time spending time in Leavenworth during the winter.

[snow_wizard]

The EMON likes the idea of another favorable MJO wave later in January.  I think we will get another stab at getting some lowland snow.  Certainly shaping up to be a better than average El Nino season in a number of ways.  Nothing like an MJO over the Indian Ocean to say F*** you to El Nino.

[snow_wizard]

Since things are slowing down, thought it would be a good time to ask... What kind of weather station/system do you guys have? I have a pretty basic one (indoor/outdoor temp, humidity, high/low temps) but I'm looking to get one that has more options like wind, dewpoint, etc. Any suggestions?

 

 

Humidity and dew point are the hardest elements to measure by far.  Most cheap stations are pretty far off when humidity becomes extreme one way or the other.  I bought a $600.00 sensor to remedy the problem and still haven't gotten it set up.  Kind of complicated.

[GHweatherChris]

Normally I despise inversion cold in the winter especially when I haven't seen more than rain/snow mix mostly.  But this time is different, we deserve this nice dry stretch and I will actually welcome some frosty mornings for up to the next week and a half at least.  Makes work that much more enjoyable after the month we have had.

[TT-SEA]

Normally I despise inversion cold in the winter especially when I haven't seen more than rain/snow mix mostly.  But this time is different, we deserve this nice dry stretch and I will actually welcome some frosty mornings for up to the next week and a half at least.  Makes work that much more enjoyable after the month we have had.

You probably escape fog out there as well with a winter inversion.

[TT-SEA]

First 0.00 day of the month at SEA.

[GHweatherChris]

You probably escape fog out there as well with a winter inversion.

We will have a few days with freezing fog, but even that will burn off by 9ish. My drives to work will be sketchy though, fog locks in around Elma all the the way to Olympia and may not burn off mostly.

[GHweatherChris]

If this isn't the epitome of a boring pattern I don't know what is.

[Jesse]

If this isn't the epitome of a boring pattern I don't know what is.

boring.png

The last couple months have been pretty active. We are due.

[MossMan]

[GHweatherChris]

The last couple months have been pretty active. We are due.

Definitely. Im leaning towards a widespread snow chance mid month for the westside. Moreso than the mostly rain/snow mix variety lately for most of the lowlands, its just a gut feeling but I dont think we immediately go back to mild rain AR events this month like late November early December.

[Bryant]

The EMON likes the idea of another favorable MJO wave later in January.  I think we will get another stab at getting some lowland snow.  Certainly shaping up to be a better than average El Nino season in a number of ways.  Nothing like an MJO over the Indian Ocean to say F*** you to El Nino.

 

We want the MJO to gain amplitude and make a full cycle. We need to give the Aleutian low time to work it's magic when it comes to wave bombardment on the PV, so if we do see the MJO propagate into the Maritime region, we have arctic air to work with this time around. 

[Snowman5678]

Just realized that the air stagnation advisory doesn't include the EPSL. Interesting. 

Looks like I'll go from inversion here when I leave in January to Salt Lake where there will likely be an inversion. Riveting stuff on the horizon. blech.

[Parksvillewx]

Since things are slowing down, thought it would be a good time to ask... What kind of weather station/system do you guys have? I have a pretty basic one (indoor/outdoor temp, humidity, high/low temps) but I'm looking to get one that has more options like wind, dewpoint, etc. Any suggestions?

 

I love my Davis Vantage Vue, Does everything I need it to do.

[Snowman5678]

I still had a flip phone during that timeframe and the camera was horrible on it. Nowadays it will be a different story! Another 08 happens and I will have a ton of pictures I'm sure!

I had a little point and shoot, my first camera actually! That was before I got interested in photography and ended up become a photographer . I would get some wicked shots if that happened now! 

[MossMan]

Definitely. Im leaning towards a widespread snow chance mid month for the westside. Moreso than the mostly rain/snow mix variety lately for most of the lowlands, its just a gut feeling but I dont think we immediately go back to mild rain AR events this month like late November early December.

according to Cliff Mass, winter might be done. I don't think so, 06-07 was an El Niño winter (albeit a weak one) and I had snow fall every month from Nov thru March not to mention record rains, flooding, winds...not all that different from this year so far.

[Snowman5678]

Since things are slowing down, thought it would be a good time to ask... What kind of weather station/system do you guys have? I have a pretty basic one (indoor/outdoor temp, humidity, high/low temps) but I'm looking to get one that has more options like wind, dewpoint, etc. Any suggestions?

I have a davis vantage pro 2 which has been awesome with no issues. Until Sunday when the DP started dropping and kept dropping to -30 and the humidity dropped down to 2%...when it was raining.

[HighlandExperience]

according to Cliff Mass, winter might be done. I don't think so, 06-07 was an El Niño winter (albeit a weak one) and I had snow fall every month from Nov thru March not to mention record rains, flooding, winds...not all that different from this year so far.

 

He never really said the winter was done. He was just pointing out the fact that we won't see a sustained wet period like we just experienced. 

[Deweydog]

Winter ends March 19, 2016.

[MossMan]

He never really said the winter was done. He was just pointing out the fact that we won't see a sustained wet period like we just experienced.

Yeah but he did talk about the usual "less snowfall in the lowlands" El Niño thing and the mountains not getting much more snowfall this season.

[MossMan]

Winter ends March 19, 2016.

But doesn't meteorological winter end when the bulbs start popping out of the ground at Tim's house in mid January?

[Deweydog]

But doesn't meteorological winter end when the bulbs start popping out of the ground at Tim's house in mid January?

It's spring the moment his snowpack becomes crusty.

[snow_wizard]

The last couple months have been pretty active. We are due.

 

To say the least.  I can't believe anyone would complain about a chilly break in the action for a while.  To me cold in January is the way it should be.

[TT-SEA]

It's spring the moment his snowpack becomes crusty.

Then it's spring! Hopefully the daffodil bulbs hold off this year. January should never be a spring month. Let that wait until February.

[snow_wizard]

He never really said the winter was done. He was just pointing out the fact that we won't see a sustained wet period like we just experienced. 

 

I think the next round of extreme wetness will probably go south of us due to the AO flipping to negative.  The next favorable MJO wave may have a shot at delivering something good for us.

[snow_wizard]

I have a davis vantage pro 2 which has been awesome with no issues. Until Sunday when the DP started dropping and kept dropping to -30 and the humidity dropped down to 2%...when it was raining.

 

I rest my case about humidity and dew point being the hardest thing to measure.  Over time the sensors become increasingly inaccurate due to dust and other contaminants.  I have tried analog instruments to measure humidity also without great success.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 33 degrees here already.

[TT-SEA]

Down to 33 degrees here already.

Your snow from Sunday would have never made it through today if somehow it made it through yesterday.

[Deweydog]

Your snow from Sunday would have never made it through today if somehow it made it through yesterday.

He's also going to die someday. Tell him. TELL HIM!

[TT-SEA]

He's also going to die someday. Tell him. TELL HIM!

No... just that he misread what the models showed for the last two days back on Sunday. It was never going to be that cold. I was going to mention it on Sunday but then that would be ruining the snow fun.

[Deweydog]

No... just that he misread what the models showed for the last two days back on Sunday. It was never going to be that cold. I was going to mention it on Sunday but then that would be ruining the snow fun.

Guess I missed that.

[TT-SEA]

Guess I missed that.

He kept talking about getting a little snow on Sunday going into the inversion... but just glossing over Monday and Tuesday. And probably tomorrow as well since it will not be an inversion yet.