12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Money]

Thats a big ice storm for e Iowa

 

D**n

[gosaints]

Looks like all snow here

Interesting

Wouldnt take much to get you to although that 548 thickness screams sleet

[Geos]

Here's a super imposed EURO snowfall map onto Google Earth.

Marked where James is since he's so close to the cut off for high amounts.

 

 

Another one for Minnesota.

 

 

Mind all the extra features on the map, I forgot to turn off certain layers.

[Money]

Wouldnt take much to get you to although that 548 thickness screams sleet

Yeah it's close def closer than the last few euro runs

[ToastedRavs]

@Geos.  Him and I are both right on the line. I am in SW corner of Des Moines metro...right off of I 35.  So, so close.  I still think I am good for 8"---hoping for the magical foot of snow

[bud2380]

Yep euro with lots of ice here. Only potential good news is that it may switch over to all rain for awhile and alleviate the bad icing for a bit

[james1976]

Here's a super imposed EURO snowfall map onto Google Earth.

Marked where James is since he's so close to the cut off for high amounts.

 

james_eurosnowfall.jpg

 

Another one for Minnesota.

 

gosaints_eurosnowfall.jpg

 

Mind all the extra features on the map, I forgot to turn off certain layers.

Thanks Geos!

[FarmerRick]

 

 

Jim Flowers KMTV Meteorologist

15 mins · 

Euro is in and still has warm layer at 10k feet at 34deg. Haven't seen soundings yet but snowfall looks overdone, more later.

 

 

[Geos]

@Geos.  Him and I are both right on the line. I am in SW corner of Des Moines metro...right off of I 35.  So, so close.  I still think I am good for 8"---hoping for the magical foot of snow

 

Wasn't sure where Cumming was. Now I know. You're exactly on the 6" line. I wouldn't worry too much about freezing rain at least. Sleet... maybe some.

Sometimes models over do the WAA. I know during the GHDay Blizzard I, sleet was supposed to work into Chicago, but never did. Actually hail was reported a few times with t-snow.

[gabel23]

Des Moines Euro:

MON 06Z 28-DEC -3.9 -2.8 1028 65 12 0.00 566 544

MON 12Z 28-DEC -2.2 -4.1 1019 83 100 0.29 562 547

MON 18Z 28-DEC -1.1 -1.1 1005 88 99 0.57 555 551

TUE 00Z 29-DEC -0.1 -3.7 998 93 96 0.37 538 540

TUE 06Z 29-DEC -0.8 -2.5 999 94 84 0.07 544 545

TUE 12Z 29-DEC -3.9 -6.2 1009 89 61 0.01 549 542

 

Can you give me KOLU please? Thanks!

[buzzman289]

it will be interesting where that baroclinic zone sets up with all the snow happening now out west

[bainbridgekid]

 

Jim Flowers KMTV Meteorologist

15 mins · 

Euro is in and still has warm layer at 10k feet at 34deg. Haven't seen soundings yet but snowfall looks overdone, more later.

Interesting. I wondered if there might be issues with warming at very high levels given how dynamic the storm is and how little real cold air it has to tap into.

[Geos]

Welcome to the our weather board Buzzman.

Where are you from?

 

it will be interesting where that baroclinic zone sets up with all the snow happening now out west

 

You have an important point there. One thing to watch today and see where that band of rain ends up later with respect to where the models place it.

[NH4NU]

OAX updated their weather story. http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory?sid=oax&embed=#.Vn7ilLYrLDc 

[Geos]

If I was in Omaha, I wouldn't even worry much about sleet at this point. Usually it's over played on the models.

 

Some pretty cold temps in eastern SD right now.

[buzzman289]

nw Cedar Rapids, i've been learning on here and other forums for about 3 yrs  but this is my first time posting

[ToastedRavs]

Can you give me KOLU please? Thanks!

MON 06Z 28-DEC -11.3    -6.3    1032      70       2    0.00     564     540    MON 12Z 28-DEC -10.3    -6.9    1024      75      99    0.02     558     539    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -8.2    -8.9    1014      89      99    0.39     552     541    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -7.9    -8.9    1008      87      94    0.51     546     540    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -8.0    -9.4    1010      86      91    0.08     546     538    TUE 12Z 29-DEC -11.3   -10.5    1015      84      23    0.03     547     535    

[hlcater]

This system... I don't want ice but it appears if thats what I'm gonna get/

[OKwx2k4]

Something about this storm that makes me aggravated. If all this rain were anywhere east of here, this would be one of the most over covered hype and panic storms for flooding anywhere on the news. But it's Oklahoma, a foot of rain, probably historic river flooding and flooding in many other areas. Nothing to see here folks. Lol. I guess Oklahoma/Arkansas don't really generate the ratings like South Carolina does.

[Iowa2015]

Oklahoma?? Wherethe hell is that place?

[gabel23]

I'll bet the farm on wsw being issued and not blizzard watch.....I'm patiently waiting on the update by Hastings!!

[OKwx2k4]

Oklahoma?? Wherethe hell is that place?

Lol. Exactly. Haha.

[NH4NU]

Winter Storm Watch issued for northwestern MO would expect OAX to issue soon. 

 

MO

* SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 7 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2/10 OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

[ToastedRavs]

Winter Storm Watch issued for northwestern MO would expect OAX to issue soon.

 

MO

* SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY EVENING

THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 7 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS

OF 2/10 OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

 

I would hope Omaha or Des Moines goes with blizzard watch. My guess is Omaha will, but not Des Moines

[NH4NU]

I would hope Omaha or Des Moines goes with blizzard watch. My guess is Omaha will, but not Des Moines

 

I haven't looked at wind gradients but do they exceed or reach 35mph for a 3hr period do you know top of mind? 

[winterfreak]

Maybe me and OKwx will get a flood watch. Sounds absolutely wonderful.

[OKwx2k4]

Maybe me and OKwx will get a flood watch. Sounds absolutely wonderful.

Lol. Yay! Not.

[GDR]

I don't think Des Moines will go with a blizzard watch

[ToastedRavs]

I haven't looked at wind gradients but do they exceed or reach 35mph for a 3hr period do you know top of mind?

. Looks like sustained around 25 to 30 mph for western Iowa from 7 to 5 on Monday, gusts to 40

[ToastedRavs]

I don't think Des Moines will go with a blizzard watch

 

They may west of Des Moines, pretty easy out there to reach blizzard conditions between us and Omaha

[Money]

Nam coming in stronger again through 42

[bainbridgekid]

Nam coming in stronger again through 42

The double barrel nature of the low really pushes it West between hour 33 and 42.

 

Almost like the initial low slides straight East and the energy transfers to the West part of the low which pulls back NW.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015122618&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=499

[Grizzcoat]

18z nam look slightly further E with sub 0C 850 temps in Ia (compared to 12z Nam)-- system also seems a tad further east and quicker-- also seems to occlude quicker...

[Scott26]

The double barrel nature of the low really pushes it West between hour 33 and 42.

 

Almost like the initial low slides straight East and the energy transfers to the West part of the low which pulls back NW.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2015122618&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=245

With dynamic systems like this the NAM tends to have convective feedback issues which pushes the low NW. This is why I personally don't use the NAM until at least within 24 hours.

[Money]

Big ice storm again in southern wi

[gosaints]

That is one confused model.

[Money]

The double barrel nature of the low really pushes it West between hour 33 and 42.

 

Almost like the initial low slides straight East and the energy transfers to the West part of the low which pulls back NW.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015122618&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=499

Isn't this usually the problem with higher resolution models?

[Scott26]

Big ice storm again in southern wi

I don't think this will be an absolutely crippling ice storm by any means, but with the strong winds and ice accumulating on the power lines the hardest hit areas will likely experience widespread power outages. Right now the WPC is outlines Eastern Iowa into NW Illinois for the mostly likely area of seeing greater than 0.25 inches of ice accumulation.

[Money]

Nam gives nothing to Lincoln or Omaha this run either and only 2 or so for gosaints area

[winterfreak]

WSW watch for KC. Makes no sense to me based off of model trends the last two days. Really want to know what they're sniffing.