August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nov 1985

Dec 2013

Jan 1950

Feb 2019

Analog months

[snow_wizard]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Analogs??

 

You can certainly write off 1977 and 1982 because of ENSO.  Pretty hard to ignore 1967 though.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I would too with 32 inches of snow.  I loved the last half of Jan through early Feb in 1996 though.  Great mix of snow and clear / cold.

PDX had around 14" and Downtown around 17.6" so not as much but still great here. Wow, January 1996 into early Feb looks cold, a high of 23 at PDX with no precip!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Nov 1985

Dec 2013

Jan 1950

Feb 2019

Analog months

That would make a really great winter for sure.

Going way back I would take 1884 for December and something like 1887 for February.  20th century I would go 1924 for December and 1929 for February.  That would make nearly constant snow on the ground from Nov 20 to Feb 20 or so.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That would make a really great winter for sure.

Going way back I would take 1884 for December and something like 1887 for February.  20th century I would go 1924 for December and 1929 for February.  That would make nearly constant snow on the ground from Nov 20 to Feb 20 or so.

Pretty sure we had snow falling on Christmas Day here in 1924.

[Cloud]

00z is a tad warmer mid-next week and punting the weekend system WAY north. This was kinda expected with the flip-flopping. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

00z is a tad warmer mid-next week and punting the weekend system WAY north. This was kinda expected with the flip-flopping. 

At least it still has a sharp cool off late next week.  Yet another shot of heat after that though.  Total roller coaster.

[MossMan]

69/55 on the day. 
Currently 60. 

[Cloud]

Pretty sure the tropical system being shown in the gulf screwing around with the model. 

[snow_wizard]

I would say the chances are at least 50% the Atlantic / Gulf is finally going to wake up in the next week.  Things might be starting to shift a bit.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Pretty sure the tropical system being shown in the gulf screwing around with the model. 

Would be awesome if someone could post the WB low pressure plots for that hurricane once the ensemble rolls out.

I can’t afford a WB subscription in the offseason.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Pretty sure we had snow falling on Christmas Day here in 1924.

That was an amazing run of winter.  Up here we had a big snow well before Christmas and it stayed very cold for days with snow still on the ground on Christmas.

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

00z is a tad warmer mid-next week and punting the weekend system WAY north. This was kinda expected with the flip-flopping. 

12z Euro and 00z GFS show just a minor 30 degree difference or so for Seattle by the Sunday of Labor Day weekend.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Can probably toss 1982/83 from that.

Taking out that year leaves us this. 

I also feel strongly about the January 1957 analog. Adding that gives us this. I think January will give us the best chance to score this winter. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we'll have the coldest and snowiest regional January in decades. 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You would never be able to comprehend how pissed off I was during the 1998-2001 La Nina.  I was in a near constant state of anger for most of those winters.  Probably the most wasted La Nina in history.  For anger that Jan 1999 through 2006 stretch was the peak for me.  More recently it's more of a depression thing when things don't go right. 

I know you're right about weather being uncontrollable, but it still ties some people in knots.

Have you thought about therapy? I am not saying this to be snarky. If torchy, dud winters really, truly ruin your life (as opposed to be merely being a sucky thing), that sounds pretty bad and maybe getting professional help could really improve how you experience the world. We all have a finite time on this world, why spend it in misery?

[Cloud]

Just by model comparison on last night’s 00z run vs tonight, the tropical system placement obviously playing a huge role in our neck of the woods as well in terms of ridge placement. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Taking out that year leaves us this. 

I also feel strongly about the Janaury 1957 analog. Adding that gives us this. I think January will give us the best chance to score this winter. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we'll have the coldest and snowiest regional January in decades. 

 

It's certainly possible, but the persistence of the January curse can't be ignored.  It has to end sometime though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I have it seen it snow on Christmas Day in the PNW lowlands in 2007, 2008, 2017 and 2021. Missed 1996 because I was visiting relatives in Portland.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Just by model comparison on last night’s 00z run vs tonight, the tropical system placement obviously playing a huge role in our neck of the woods as well in terms of ridge placement. 

Probably 4-5 more days of throwing that thing around before it gets a decent idea

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's certainly possible, but the persistence of the January curse can't be ignored.  It has to end sometime though.

There was actually a pretty decent January snow event in Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland in 2019. It just didn't get far enough south for Seattle to get the goods. That it got close, however, shows that it still is possible.

[Meatyorologist]

If the Dec 2021 Arctic event had been shifted one day earlier, Christmas would have been the best in recorded history. 23/17 spread with 5" of heavy blowing powder on Boxing day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

26 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

PDX had around 14" and Downtown around 17.6" so not as much but still great here. Wow, January 1996 into early Feb looks cold, a high of 23 at PDX with no precip!

Yeah that was a nice cold snap. Not quite as cold down here as that was very outflow based, but I think Silverton had a couple 30/12 type days. A very active winter, I know up here there was an incredible amount of snow, though down in Silverton we probably only had about 6-8" for the winter. 

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Probably 4-5 more days of throwing that thing around before it gets a decent idea

You’re right about that…. It’s now thrown this thing anywhere from NOLA to Mexico

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If the Dec 2021 Arctic event had been shifted one day earlier, Christmas would have been the best in recorded history. 23/17 spread with 5" of heavy blowing powder on Boxing day.

I don't think 2021 really counts here as a white Christmas in Portland but it started snowing on the 25th at around 10pm and sticking which was really nice.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If the Dec 2021 Arctic event had been shifted one day earlier, Christmas would have been the best in recorded history. 23/17 spread with 5" of heavy blowing powder on Boxing day.

I remembered posting about the neighbor’s pipe leaked on here a few days after this. And you know what? They never got that fixed as well.
 

Just an update from me 9 months later

 

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Have you thought about therapy? I am not saying this to be snarky. If torchy, dud winters really, truly ruin your life (as opposed to be merely being a sucky thing), that sounds pretty bad and maybe getting professional help could really improve how you experience the world. We all have a finite time on this world, why spend it in misery?

I tried it.  Nothing even comes close to touching it.  There is a flip side when things go right though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I tried it.  Nothing even comes close to touching it.  There is a flip side when things go right though.

Manic bi-polar. 

Just wanted to clarify this was not meant mockingly... I apologize if I should have kept my thoughts to myself...

Edited August 27, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I tried it.  Nothing even comes close to touching it.  There is a flip side when things go right though.

It’s definitely a bummer when a snow/cold event busts. I’ll definitely feel down for a day or so. Some of my best memories in life is staying up and watching snow at my house and just enjoying it with friends but it’s not the end of the world I just focus on doing other stuff if it doesn’t work out. 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If the Dec 2021 Arctic event had been shifted one day earlier, Christmas would have been the best in recorded history. 23/17 spread with 5" of heavy blowing powder on Boxing day.

Not to be too pedantic, and it was just a bit before our time, but Christmas 1852 looked pretty alright. Fort Vancouver was 27/15 and Fort Steilacoom pulled off an 18/0 and both sites had over 15" of snow on the ground. 

[Meatyorologist]

Throwing shade is one thing, but calling accusations of mental illness in a derogatory, baseless manner is not cool, no matter what.

[MossMan]

January 2020 was also fun up here! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Throwing shade is one thing, but calling accusations of mental illness in a derogatory, baseless manner is not cool, no matter what.

IDK if you were referring to my post, I've been pretty open about my own mental health, so I'm sorry if it came off as that... Therapy as suggested by someone on here was great. Medication can help some, I think a holistic approach is good. I think mental health is a daily battle for most humans. Something we are just waking up to. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IDK if you were referring to my post, I've been pretty open about my own mental health, so I'm sorry if it came off as that... Therapy as suggested by someone on here was great. Medication can help some, I think a holistic approach is good. I think mental health is a daily battle for most humans. Something we are just waking up to. 

No, you were not involved in this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

No, you were not involved in this.

Okay... I think I missed some stuff today...

[TacomaWx]

Down to 62 here…just might squeeze out a midnight low. Need to get down to 59 to do it. 

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If the Dec 2021 Arctic event had been shifted one day earlier, Christmas would have been the best in recorded history. 23/17 spread with 5" of heavy blowing powder on Boxing day.

It would have made for 3 legit White Christmases this century as well.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Manic bi-polar. 

Just wanted to clarify this was not meant mockingly... I apologize if I should have kept my thoughts to myself...

No problem.  It's certainly something along those lines.  In a way I don't want to change which makes it hard for any therapy to do much good.  Klonopin has certainly helped if I go too far down the rabbit hole.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS has glancing blows from a number of troughs which knock the temps down several times.

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

January 2020 was also fun up here! 

That was a really close call.  We got on the right side of the Arctic front for about 12 to 18 hours which gave us some snow and decently cold temps, but it retreated quickly.

[snow_wizard]

Yikes!  I forgot what an epic torch the rest of January 2020 was.  Without the brief cold snap it would have been up there with the warmest.