August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[MossMan]

What a difference a few hours makes! Yesterday afternoon to this morning! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

What a difference a few hours makes! Yesterday afternoon to this morning! 

Very sunny here now! 

[TacomaWx]

15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think given the high end warmth these last 6 weeks, more warmth is always a safe bet. However, given how high end things have already been I also think a relative relaxation is most likely with a couple of modest shake-ups at times. Probably gonna be more like +2 or +1.5 than +3.5 or +4.

Yeah I don’t foresee the recent pattern just continuing unabated. The longer range stuff in the 7-10 day range is still very in flux too way too early to be sure about it.

[FroYoBro]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ironic... holiday weekend anxiety from a someone who always mocks anyone making weekend plans.  

 

Who are you talking to? Did you remember to take all of your sunshine meds this morning? 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

2014/15 was neutral, but yeah I guess 1977/78 was barely a niño by DJF (not during hurricane season, though).

La Niña/-ENSO examples were 1970, 1983, and 2013. Two of those were frigid, and 1983 was closer to average but had two massive cold blasts with subzero temps.

All hypothetical still, of course.

ONI lists 2014-15 as a Nino, although it was very weak.

And of course on the inverse side of things, 1933-34, 1969-70, and 1995-96 were rather purdy for you and were all rather active seasons. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Who are you talking to? Did you remember to take all of your sunshine meds this morning? 

It would be nice to be ignored.

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The only time I had to commute by driving a car an appreciable distance was on my first real job out of college, and that was in a rural area with little traffic to speak of. Could not imagine doing so in the “rush” (it definitely does not rush) “hour” (it lasts far longer than an hour) traffic of a major metro area.

My first job I drove about 40 miles one way, depending on which freeway I took I could do it in almost 20 minutes. Granted it was a swing shift so traffic wasn't an issue.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It would be nice to be ignored.

Then don't constantly mock people for preferring sun or making weekend plans.   No one is mocking people who prefer rain.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the clearing is confined to just out here on the eastern edge of the marine layer cloud deck.    I still don't think SEA will have any sun today and will struggle to reach 70.

[Deweydog]

Hit some SERIOUS drizzle on the 5 around Kalama this morning.

[High Desert Mat?]

21 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow that is warm! Did you catch any fish?!

I didn’t catch anything. Not even a bite. Water was way too warm!!

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

ONI lists 2014-15 as a Nino, although it was very weak.

And of course on the inverse side of things, 1933-34, 1969-70, and 1995-96 were rather purdy for you and were all rather active seasons. 

Yeah obviously a slew of variables involved.

It does seem that (on balance) quiet seasons tend to precede colder winters out this way relative to active seasons.  But since different factors can be responsible for stunting hurricane activity, it’s kind of cheating to treat them all the same.

[The Blob]

Still cloudy here in PDX.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sky conditions in Salem. 

[Doinko]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

2014/15 was neutral, but yeah I guess 1977/78 was barely a niño by DJF (not during hurricane season, though).

La Niña/-ENSO examples were 1970, 1983, and 2013. Two of those were frigid, and 1983 was closer to average but had two massive cold blasts with subzero temps.

All hypothetical still, of course.

All three of those winters were pretty good here too. 1970-71 had more than 20" of snow in both Salem and Eugene, December 1983 had a major arctic blast and 2013 had a major arctic blast in December and snow in February.

I might be wrong but wasn't 2013/2014 a neutral winter?

[TT-SEA]

Guessing the 12Z ECMWF is going to trend wetter for next weekend.     

[Rubus Leucodermis]

34 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It would be nice to be ignored.

Then stop posting.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Then stop posting.

Context is important. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Context is important. 

Yes, the context of being a prolific poster yet expressing a wish to be ignored.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yes, the context of being a prolific poster yet expressing a wish to be ignored.

This is what happens when a person jumps onto the last comment of an exchange without reading the posts before it. I primarily wish to be ignored by one specific user.

I wouldn’t post here at all if I didn’t value many other aspects of the community.

[TacomaWx]

Euro still looks wet with the upcoming system north of Seattle. Might squeeze out a few hundredths here. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This is what happens when a person jumps onto the last comment of an exchange without reading the posts before it. I primarily wish to be ignored by one specific user.

Yet that specific user is a regular in this forum.

I think I will move to Winnipeg while wishing for mild winters.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yes, the context of being a prolific poster yet expressing a wish to be ignored.

 

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Mr marine layer lives his life in wild eyed terror for any form of condensed water vapor 

And then there are posts like this which doesn't seem to be someone who really wants to be ignored.    

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yet that specific user is a regular in this forum.

I think I will move to Winnipeg while wishing for mild winters.

The mods and admins here will often suggest that if you don’t like a certain user’s input, putting them on ignore is a relatively easy way to help avoid conflict. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

The mods and admins here will often suggest that if you don’t like a certain user’s input, putting them on ignore is a relatively easy way to help avoid conflict. 

Yet, curiously, you don’t put him on ignore.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yet, curiously, you don’t put him on ignore.

Not sure how you would know either way. 

Anyway, it was a simple comment expressing my hope to be able participate in relative peace here. Knock me for that if you want. I know you’re having a bit of fun right now but it really didn’t need to be blown out of proportion like this.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF definitely not backing down... trending deeper with the trough and the rain is farther south than the 00Z run by next Saturday.

[Requiem]

Looks wet at hour 216

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not sure how you would know either way.

Oh, come on now. It’s obvious.

[TacomaWx]

Fall basically starts north of Seattle on the euro…system in the longer range is a bit further south. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not sure how you would know either way. 

Anyway, it was a simple comment expressing my hope to be able participate in relative peace here. Knock me for that if you want. I know you’re having a bit of fun right now but it really didn’t need to be blown out of proportion like this.

I am all for it... so why do you make mocking posts almost every day like the one shown above?    Lets all just post about weather and not constantly worry about preferences.    

[Cascadia_Wx]

Massive, massive hypocrisy.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice to see the Euro trend a little better in the long range. Although in the short term, next Tuesday being around 100 sure seemed to come out of nowhere on this morning’s runs. Good agreement between the GFS, Canadian and Euro for that.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Massive, massive hypocrisy.

How so?    Show me where I am mocking people all the time.    Please.    

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Fall basically starts north of Seattle on the euro…system in the longer range is a bit further south. 

Wow!   Lots of rain.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Oh, come on now. It’s obvious.

Do you have any idea how much stuff I ignore and just move on about on a daily basis compared to several years ago? Maybe people who weren’t around back then don’t realize how much more civil things have gotten overall here. I’m far from perfect but I have made a fairly large effort to not engage as much as I used to by a long shot.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow!   Lots of rain.

 

Still lots of time to go with that one…in the end I think it’ll be a Bellingham/BC event. Still think we have to wait until September 15th for anything significant Puget sound south. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Do you have any idea how much stuff I ignore and just move on about on a daily basis compared to several years ago? Maybe people who weren’t around back then don’t realize how much more civil things have gotten overall here. I’m far from perfect but I have made a fairly large effort to not engage as much as I used to by a long shot.

And your recent self-own is therefore all my fault. Got it.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Do you have any idea how much stuff I ignore and just move on about on a daily basis compared to several years ago? Maybe people who weren’t around back then don’t realize how much more civil things have gotten overall here. I’m far from perfect but I have made a fairly large effort to not engage as much as I used to by a long shot.

There are numerous posts from you almost every day that are just unsolicited mocking of people.  So its hard to reconcile that with the desire to be ignored.    I am just trying to understand because I think we want the same thing.   

[TT-SEA]

Downright impressive.