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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

Meatyorologist

By Meatyorologist
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by Meatyorologist,

One of our own #wawx members is recovering from a pretty bad bout of Covid. He's been in the community for a decade plus now, I've talked with him on Twitter since I joined the platform. If any of you guys have an acct over there, go and wish him a speedy further recovery.
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Posted by HuskyMaestro,

Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum but I've lurked around here every once in a few days since December 2021 to follow on the snow forecasts, and ever since I just generally lurked to follow the weather while learning things bit by bit.  I withheld on making an account because I don't have anything to contribute, I believe, and I wasn't sure how a newbie or an outsider would be treated. I have a very vague sense on how to read GFS or ECMWF maps but have no idea how to use them to pred

Welcome HuskyMaestro!

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Posted by Dave,

Omfg. We just got the biggest hail I've ever seen. 1.25". Unbelievable 

!!!

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MV_snow Rising Star

MV_snow

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Really surprised that it hasn’t gotten nasty and smoky yet. Not going to do any celebratory dance until there is a pattern shift and regular rains resume. September is sometimes a very dry month (and sometimes a very smoky one).

Agreed. I think the wet spring saved our a$$es, since all the torching of July and August would usually be a pattern to bring smoke. We’re also lucky CA hasn’t had a terrible season (yet) that could bring smoke up this way.

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HuskyMaestro
HuskyMaestro

Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum but I've lurked around here every once in a few days since December 2021 to follow on the snow forecasts, and ever since I just generally lurked to follow the

AlTahoe
AlTahoe

Well it looks slow in here so here are some pics from today. Lily lake trail overlooking fallen leaf lake towards the East shore of Tahoe. But first we had to be granted access by momma bear. 

Dave
Dave

This is after some melting and on a dirty plate.

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

We’re also lucky CA hasn’t had a terrible season (yet) that could bring smoke up this way.

And this point is just sheer luck, because California has been very dry. One possibility is that all the most flammable stuff has burned already, so there just aren’t any large swaths of fuel suitable for megafires left in that state anymore (at least, not until a wet year or three allows regrowth).

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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ShawniganLake Grand Master

ShawniganLake

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Really surprised that it hasn’t gotten nasty and smoky yet. Not going to do any celebratory dance until there is a pattern shift and regular rains resume. September is sometimes a very dry month (and sometimes a very smoky one).

Big time fire season is essentially over in BC. Not likely we will see anything explode like we have is the past 5 years or so.  Fire season in the province is heavily influenced by June rainfall.  He had lots this year. 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Forecast at home looks very nice...

Screenshot_20220828-183554_Google.jpg

So you admit you enjoy 90°F heat.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

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Posted
2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Forecast at home looks very nice...

Screenshot_20220828-183554_Google.jpg

Too hot. Knock about 60 off those highs and 55 off the lows. Then you’re talking nice.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

Absolutely beautiful early fall like weather here today with 72/46 on the day. Currently 49F.

Sadly the cool weather is short lived as the torch is on again by midweek. 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted

The last 3 days have brought the average temp of this month down to 68.4…down from 68.9 on 8/25. Of course we’ve got a hot finish to the month coming up…based on the forecast we’ve got a good shot at ending up around 68.7-68.9 roughly. That would put us at the 2nd warmest month on record. Pretty crazy that we pulled off such a warm month without even getting above 88 degrees. 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Kind of a holy sheit change on tonight's GFS.  Nice!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Feels like the GFS is leading the ECMWF right now.   And the 18Z GFS was the first run to reverse the warm trend for next weekend and the 00Z run carried it further.    Assuming there will be changes on the 00Z ECMWF. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Nws seems to think there’s a shot at some thunderstorms east of Puget sound Wednesday…not a slam dunk forecast by the sounds of it. 

Is it ever with thunderstorms?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

GFS shows some low 40s on this run.  Tis the season!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Looks like we finally have agreement on an Atlantic hurricane.  Talk about late.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

That GFS run is a thing of beauty.  Little doubt there would be some 30s in the favored locations if it verifies.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

GEFS looks like it swung cooler too. 😎 

Getting a nice look to it during week two!  A cool September would be awesome if we could pull it off.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Interesting.  The EPS control looks just like the GFS later on, but the mean is sh*t.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
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Posted
10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Is it ever with thunderstorms?

9/5/13 was about as planned of a thunderstorm outbreak as you can get here. It arrived 7 hours late, but when it got here, it didn't screw around.

5/7/17 was also pretty well forecast days in advance and even included a tangible severe threat. Lots of good CG's here with that one and incredible straightline winds in the OLY area.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

I have found I can only complain so much about the same thing... Glad all this wood we split yesterday will get to dry out for a couple more weeks as I stack it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

How many cords you got?

I would say I already had about 2-3 stacked, and after splitting we have 5-6 split now. Probably about 2-3 cords that I'll just save for next year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Does anyone recognize this tool Randy Small used to rank our spring?16617915602194299666461962142629.png

ACIS 2

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

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Posted

5130611F-6BC8-42C3-A93E-C96EB2736222.jpeg

502504A2-A024-4246-AB7E-7BEA327821E4.jpeg

Seven years ago today... August windstorm of 2015. Of all the years to have an active late summer jet and an early start to fall...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

5130611F-6BC8-42C3-A93E-C96EB2736222.jpeg

502504A2-A024-4246-AB7E-7BEA327821E4.jpeg

Seven years ago today... August windstorm of 2015. Of all the years to have an active late summer jet and an early start to fall...

Oh yes the storm of the century. But it looks like a pretty wild hit there as well as the Manzanita waterspout.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Snownerd3000 Grand Master

Snownerd3000

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Does anyone recognize this tool Randy Small used to rank our spring?16617915602194299666461962142629.png

What's crazy is we ended up 25th coolest after all was said and done. I don't recall us having that much heat towards the end of June that it would increase our average temperature 2 whole degrees .image.png.918581eb3b9950a43be132332cebbeed.png

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

You're a gentleman and a scholar.

Cheers my friend. Happy to help. It's fun to look and see which winters were the snowiest for your location by season instead of calendar year.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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