August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[TT-SEA]

SEA will probably end up with an average temp of 70.0 for August... which will be the 3rd time in history at 70+.   Behind 1967 and just behind 2017.   

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, The Blob said:

It was frosty in Costco today.

So we’re just gonna completely skip Halloween and go straight to Christmas eh?  

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA will probably end up with an average temp of 70.0 for August... which will be the 3rd time in history at 70+.   Behind 1967 and just behind 2017.   

Did you do any calculations on what SEA needs the last few days for it to be 70? Not including today it’s currently at 67.2 for the month….. this looks a bit hard to get. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Did you do any calculations on what SEA needs the last few days for it to be 70? Not including today it’s currently at 67.2 for the month….. this looks a bit hard to get. 

I show SEA at 69.7

I agree it would be impossible at 67.2

 

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I show SEA at 69.7

I agree it would be impossible at 67.2

 

Of course this was completely my fault as I’m on mobile and forgot to select SEA. The data I pulled was for Olympia

it is indeed 69.7 for SEA. Pretty good chance then I’d say! 

[Doinko]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA will probably end up with an average temp of 70.0 for August... which will be the 3rd time in history at 70+.   Behind 1967 and just behind 2017.   

Should also be Portland's first 75 degree month, they'll probably end at ~75.1. That's a full degree warmer than the 74.1 in July 1985. 

[Tyler Mode]

18 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So we’re just gonna completely skip Halloween and go straight to Christmas eh?  

Halloween was June duhhh lol

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Of course this was completely my fault as I’m on mobile and forgot to select SEA. The data I pulled was for Olympia

it is indeed 69.7 for SEA. Pretty good chance then I’d say! 

I do that same thing all the time.   I have pulled Astoria for Portland about 100 times!

[TT-SEA]

Also interesting that SEA is +2.2 and has locked up the 3rd warmest August ever.   +2 is not that extreme... but its being compared to an already pumped up August average now.    This month would be +5 compared to the long term average.    The last time August was below the long term average at SEA was in 2002.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I do that same thing all the time.   I have pulled Astoria for Portland about 100 times!

August is guaranteed to have a mean high of 80+ as well. Back to back months. July was 80.1…. It’ll actually be warmer for this month. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

But that's the Med climate in Summer for you.

Summer doesn't usually last 212 days.

[TT-SEA]

Whoever titled this thread really jinxed this month.    The one thing it definitely was not was a 1956 redux.

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also interesting that SEA is +2.2 and has locked up the 3rd warmest August ever.   +2 is not that extreme... but its being compared to an already pumped up August average now.    This month would be +5 compared to the long term average.    The last time August was below the long term average at SEA was in 2002.

I'm showing 2010 was barely below the long term average: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa7473

2011 was the last August that legitimately was not above normal for the PNW lowlands. No other month has torched so consistently the past decade or so.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm showing 2010 was barely below the long term average: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa7473

2011 was the last August that legitimately was not above normal for the PNW lowlands. No other month has torched so consistently the past decade or so.

Good catch on 2010... it was just barely below the long term average.  

[Tyler Mode]

Right now August looks to finish at 70.8 for me, my warmest month ever...

[Meatyorologist]

I think one of the most cursed weather facts about Seattle is that going back to 2008, the coldest average September is by far 2015

[Deweydog]

90 days of summer just about in the books, folks. Anyone gonna leave early to try and beat the traffic?

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

90 days of summer just about in the books, folks. Anyone gonna leave early to try and beat the traffic?

I'm more curious to know why we get 92 days of summer but only 90-91 days of winter...?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

90 days of summer just about in the books, folks. Anyone gonna leave early to try and beat the traffic?

We are sticking around for the post game fireworks and on field activities.    Hopefully get our money's worth since we didn't show up until the 3rd inning.  

[NWbyNW]

WILDFIRE UPDATE  

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/29/22  

Washington - 16 (16 new fires today. There are five large fires in the state, one more since yesterday. The White River Fire has been added to the large fire list, located next to the Irving Peak Fire near Lake Wenatchee. The total number of fires grows from 53 to 69....nice.  This is the first time all season Washington has had more wildfires than Oregon and Idaho.) Total: 69

Oregon - 5 (5 new fires in the state again today.  There are five large fires in the state. The total number of fires increases from 30 to 32.) Total: 32

Idaho - 4(4 new fires in the state today.  There are three large fires in the state. The total number drops from 77 to 64.) Total: 64

California - 29 (29 new fires in the state of California. There are six large fires in the state. It is producing a lot of smoke, but growth potential is minimal. The total decreases from 66 to 64. ) Total: 64

British Columbia - 17 (17 new blazes in the past 24hrs.  Some big decreases the past two days. There are three large fires in the province. The total amount of fires drops from 205 to 184.) Total: 184

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 36 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

As offshore kicks in on Tuesday, expect smoke to crest over the Cascade's in Western Washington and Oregon. It could be triple thread with smoke from British Columbia, California, and Idaho hitting the western half of Washington if the models are correct.  Hard to tell if it will be low level. Conditions will become moderate to unhealthy for the Lower Mainland of BC as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall today, conditions were good for much of the region.

Northern California and Medford/Klamath Falls/Grants Pass are dealing with hazardous air quality, the worst in the nation due to wildfires.  This time Southern Oregon has itself to blame for the smoke, the first time all season.  All summer it has been sucking in smoke from California, but this time there is a fire near Grants Pass causing the issues. Expect conditions to worsen in Southern Oregon has the heat turns on. 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I'm more curious to know why we get 92 days of summer but only 90-91 days of winter...?

Closer to 120 days of summer compared to 120 hours of winter, here.

[Deweydog]

31 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I'm more curious to know why we get 92 days of summer but only 90-91 days of winter...?

Joseph Gordon-Levitt endured 500 days of summer back in 2009. And things have warmed pretty steadily since then.

[Phil]

This is my least favorite time of year by far. Rapid loss of daylight but the weather doesn’t change for at least another month. Not much convection, loads of bugs, stagnant as hell. Opposite of spring in every respect.  

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is my least favorite time of year by far. Rapid loss of daylight but the weather doesn’t change for at least another month. Not much convection, loads of bugs, stagnant as hell. Opposite of spring in every respect.  

I generally don't like spring here for the same reason... daylight is rapidly lengthening but the weather is very slow to respond.     We were at 15 hours of daylight in late May with highs in the 50s on Memorial Day weekend.   We can easily have highs in the 50s in December when daylight is almost half of May.   

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS has come around to the idea of a sunny holiday weekend... all the way through Monday now.     Appropriate payback for the aforementioned mess of a Memorial Day weekend.  

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS has come around to the idea of a sunny holiday weekend... all the way through Monday now.     Appropriate payback for the aforementioned mess of a Memorial Day weekend.  

Doesn’t really matter when someone is constantly posting and poking and not out enjoying it… kind of like someone’s vacations as well. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Doesn’t really matter when someone is constantly posting and poking and not out enjoying it… kind of like someone’s vacations as well. 

Not out enjoying nice weather?   Yeah... that is not a problem.   

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... 00Z ICON still shows some rain on Sunday and the GEM shows the same on Monday.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is showing 89 at SEA on Wednesday... that should be a guaranteed 90 but SEA fell short last Thursday with a similar set up.   That is probably the last reasonable shot at 90 for the year and it would tie 2015.   

[LowerGarfield]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I generally don't like spring here for the same reason... daylight is rapidly lengthening but the weather is very slow to respond.     We were at 15 hours of daylight in late May with highs in the 50s on Memorial Day weekend.   We can easily have highs in the 50s in December when daylight is almost half of May.   

Don't forget the allergies.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

At least Tim admitted he enjoys 90 degree heat. No need to litigate that one anymore.  

On the Canadian forum a few weeks ago, one of the regulars was saying he didn’t know what the big deal about it being too hot was, his house was 29°C inside and he slept just fine at that temperature.

Some people just tolerate hot conditions better. I am not one of them.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Should also be Portland's first 75 degree month, they'll probably end at ~75.1. That's a full degree warmer than the 74.1 in July 1985. 

The winter of 1985-86 certainly turned out well...

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

On the Canadian forum a few weeks ago, one of the regulars was saying he didn’t know what the big deal about it being too hot was, his house was 29°C inside and he slept just fine at that temperature.

Some people just tolerate hot conditions better. I am not one of them.

I hate heat.  I love doing stuff outside and hot weather in the sun just makes it impossible to function at full efficiency.  If I lived east of the Rockies it would have to be in the far north.

[TacomaWx]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

On the Canadian forum a few weeks ago, one of the regulars was saying he didn’t know what the big deal about it being too hot was, his house was 29°C inside and he slept just fine at that temperature.

Some people just tolerate hot conditions better. I am not one of them.

That dude must be full of sh*t 85 degrees or hotter is not fun to try and sleep in. 

[snow_wizard]

Interesting that the East Puget Sound Lowlands got left out of the heat advisory.  Maybe because the nights will cool off better out here?

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

That dude must be full of sh*t 85 degrees or hotter is not fun to try and sleep in. 

Totally agreed.  Yuck!

[TacomaWx]

70 here currently. Warmer than the last few evenings. 

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The winter of 1985 certainly turned out well...

Coldest November and December on record in Portland! November and December were not that snowy at PDX though, not sure about the suburbs. Feb 1986 did bring 5.8" of snow though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Coldest November and December on record in Portland! November and December were not that snowy at PDX though, not sure about the suburbs. Feb 1986 did bring 5.8" of snow though.

November was insane up here.  Certainly November's equivalent of Jan 1950.

[Doinko]

00z GFS: 
12z ECMWF: