August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Are older averages archived? (like 1921-1950 normals)

I'd like to think some of that decade was cooler than average back then. I don't think a summer like 2011 was ever an average one, unless you go way back to the 1800's. 

Not sure.    But the 1600s through the 1800s were colder overall due to the little ice age which obviously caused lots of hardships for people.    I am glad I was not alive back then for many reasons.  But that is just my opinion.    Humans can't control these large scale natural climate shifts.

[TT-SEA]

This would be a huge pattern change... ridging where there has been permanent troughing for the last 2 months and conversely troughing in the west.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

There’s great things about every time of year but in general I am not a huge fan of November. Kind of the downsides of October and December rolled into one month without many of the upsides of either.

100%

[SnowWillarrive]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure.    But the 1600s through the 1800s were colder overall due to the little ice age which obviously caused lots of hardships for people.    I am glad I was not alive back then for many reasons.  But that is just my opinion.    Humans can't control these large scale natural climate shifts.

Wish we could go back to that climate. Who knows what the future holds. 

[The Blob]

Already 80 here.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM looks like the 12Z GFS for later next with a GOA ridge and western trough.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the 12z GFS, just looks like a return to fairly average weather, some light rain possible. Warm air is never too far away, so if that ridge pops back up at some point later in the month we could get a bonus 90 or two. 

[TT-SEA]

I will say that it would be nice to have more thunderstorms and get more rain in the summer months if it's going to be getting warmer overall.    But that does not seem to be the reality recently.

[Cloud]

Summer's last gasp. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Summer's last gasp. 

Indeed... and right about on schedule. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA running +6 compared to yesterday... might just touch 90 today if this pace continues.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looks like TWL will score at least 30 touchdowns.

[TacomaWx]

Definitely warming up faster than yesterday here. Up to 73…not as much of an offshore breeze either so far. 

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA running +6 compared to yesterday... might just touch 90 today if this pace continues.

Meanwhile 7th consecutive day above 90 here. Not too atypical for August but still f**king sucks.

Getting anxious and fidgety waiting for the storms to arrive.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Already 80°F and it’s not even 11:00 AM. Gonna be a scorcher.

[GobBluth]

Impressive surge of hot air from California but negative 850s aren't terribly far away.

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Already 80°F and it’s not even 11:00 AM. Gonna be a scorcher.

Yeah upper 70s are already showing up…75 here now. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Meanwhile 7th consecutive day above 90 here. Not too atypical for August but still f**king sucks.

Getting anxious and fidgety waiting for the storms to arrive.  

Yeah, but it seems as if your DP is dangerously close to dropping below 70°F, so that streak seems to be in jeopardy.

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Already 80°F and it’s not even 11:00 AM. Gonna be a scorcher.

Interesting how much longer it takes to heat the boundary layer up there. If DCA was 80°F at 11AM the high would probably be in the low 80s (unless clouds/convection were the factor holding back temps). But at SEA it suggests there is more heating to be resized.

Most summer days here reach the upper 80s by ~ 1030AM then only rise a few degrees after that thru late afternoon.

[Omegaraptor]

Forecast highs of 80, 86, 81, 71 while I’m in Chicago looks like.

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yeah, but it seems as if your DP is dangerously close to dropping below 70°F, so that streak seems to be in jeopardy.

Dews are gonna crash into the 50s tomorrow! Hoping for at least 3 “dry air” days to follow this front.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting how much longer it takes to heat the boundary layer up there. If DCA was 80°F at 11AM the high would probably be in the low 80s (unless clouds/convection were the factor holding back temps). But at SEA it suggests there is more heating to be resized.

Most summer days here reach the upper 80s by ~ 1030AM then only rise a few degrees after that thru late afternoon.

Yeah, it’s hard to keep our highs below 30°C/86°F if it’s 80+°F by noon. Don’t think it’s gonna bake quite as severely as it would were it earlier in the season, though. Max should probably be around 3:00 PM instead of 4:00 PM or later. And it was cool enough for long enough last night that I still have a hoodie on in here (not running the A/C, just relying on closing in the cool night air).

Shorter days for the win!

[Kayla]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS and GEFS both show a troughy signal now in the 10-15 day period.   

Our 2 months of real summer is about over... started on the 4th of July and ending just after Labor Day.   Looks like everyone survived the endless 8 weeks.   

Drama drama drama! Its been a pretty solid 3 months of summer, mid June thru mid Sept. And a whole lot of record breaking heat all over the west.

If this summer wasn't enough for you then it might seriously be time to start considering a move to a sunnier location.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the 12z ensembles, we stay generally above average through the first week of September and then are around normal the 2nd week of the month with a few of the members giving us some light rain chances. I would say more climo than anything. 

[Cloud]

+7 compared to this time yesterday at SEA. 

After few attempts in previous weeks for a record tying 90F... it could get there today. 

Something else to watch for is the record high of 88 today from 1987.. this could also fall. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Drama drama drama! Its been a pretty solid 3 months of summer, mid June thru mid Sept. And a whole lot of record breaking heat all over the west.

If this summer wasn't enough for you then it might seriously be time to start considering a move to a sunnier location.

When did I say it wasn't enough?    We really hit our stride on July 4th this year which is pretty normal in terms of timing.    And the length of the annual dry period will probably end up being about 8 or 9 weeks.    It has been warm overall in July and August which is the most surprising part given the ENSO situation.   

[SnowWillarrive]

2 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

ban him

Warming weather is heresy. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

+7 compared to this time yesterday at SEA. 

After few attempts in previous weeks for a record tying 90F... it could get there today. 

Something else to watch for is the record high of 88 today from 1987.. this could also fall. 

On track for 90... barring a mid-afternoon shift to W or SW breeze.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF brings a weakening front through on Monday morning with some rain... particularly to the west and north of Seattle.     It clears up quickly though with temps rebounding to the upper 70s by afternoon.   

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On track for 90... barring a mid-afternoon shift to W or SW breeze.

This would actually be quite shocking as the overly warm biased GFS is the only model that calls for 90F today. 

The Euro is already coming in too cool. 

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When did I say it wasn't enough?    We really hit our stride on July 4th this year which is pretty normal in terms of timing.    And the length of the annual dry period will probably end up being about 8 or 9 weeks.    It has been warm overall in July and August which is the most surprising part given the ENSO situation.   

I've known you way too long, it's easy to pick up on your not so subtle hints... What did you end up cooking this time?? 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I've known you way too long, it's easy to pick up on your not so subtle hints... What did you end up cooking this time?? 

There are no subtle hints here.   This summer far exceeded my expectations.   No complaints other than the last week of July which was just too much heat.   I am not going to be in denial about what looks like a significant pattern change next week which will likely be the beginning of the fall transition.   It is what it is.    And it looks to be right about on schedule.   I like seasonal variety and we got our money's worth this summer despite a very slow start to the warm season.

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Drama drama drama! Its been a pretty solid 3 months of summer, mid June thru mid Sept. And a whole lot of record breaking heat all over the west.

If this summer wasn't enough for you then it might seriously be time to start considering a move to a sunnier location.

And it's not like all sunny/dry weather for the year is ending in a week or two either.

Most years don't enter the fall storm train for good in mid September.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

And it's not like all sunny/dry weather for the year is ending in a week or two either.

Most years don't enter the fall storm train for good in mid September.

I literally did not say anything about that.    I am hopeful for a nice September and October.   Obviously rain will increase in frequency.   The first fall storm after the annual summer dry period signals the transition.    But that does not mean it can't still be nice overall.

[Kayla]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There are no subtle hints here.   This summer far exceeded my expectations.   No complaints other than the last week of July which was just too much heat.   I am not going to be in denial about what looks like a significant pattern change next week which will likely be the beginning of the fall transition.   It is what it is.    And it looks to be right about on schedule.   I like seasonal variety and we got our money's worth this summer despite a very slow start to the warm season.

Point being, you stirred the pot first thing this morning with your "summer is over after only 8 weeks" comment to get a reaction. You got what you wanted I guess!

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And it's not like all sunny/dry weather for the year is ending in a week or two either.

Most years don't enter the fall storm train for good in mid September.

Nahh, summer ends when Tim's back porch gets wet.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I literally did not say anything about that.    I am hopeful for a nice September and October.   Obviously rain will increase in frequency.   The first fall storm after the annual summer dry period signals the transition.    But that does not mean it can't still be nice overall.

You implied it. While also acting like 2 months of next to no rainfall is a normal dry season.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Point being, you stirred the pot first thing this morning with your "summer is over after only 8 weeks" comment to get a reaction and you got what you wanted I guess!

The traditional summer period this year will be from the 4th of July to just after Labor Day.   Its 8 or 9 weeks.   Very typical timing.    But it is short... as always.   And yes... I know summer in Oregon runs from March through November.   But not up here.  

In the middle of June this year we still had trees trying to fully leaf out.    It was about as late as it gets around here. 2 months ago from this coming Saturday it was in the 50s and raining on 4th of July weekend and people were wondering if there would even be summer this year.   That was just last month.     

[Skagit Weather]

Not the most intuitive website, but NOAA/NWS has a new tool/map for showing where record temps and precipitation are possible:

Thought it might be kind of interesting to add to your bookmarks especially for easily seeing where records may be broken across the country.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is closer to the coast with the ridge next week... could end up being some beautiful early fall weather.   Assuming this does not turn into a clipper situation with offshore flow.