Jesse Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Yippee! 1998-99 winter? The CFS is crap so it's always crap. Too early for any of the models to be accurate yet. Have to get through spring. You know that. I am sure it won't be a Nino... the rest is just noise right now. Ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Ok. Its true. You have to get through spring before the ENSO signal becomes clear each year. Spring predictability barrier... https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break You won't know for sure until May or June... neutral, cold neutral, weak Nina, strong Nina. Weak Nina probably offers the best odds for us if you like arctic air. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Its true. You have to get through spring before the ENSO signal becomes clear each year. Spring predictability barrier... https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break You won't know for sure until May or June... neutral, cold neutral, weak Nina, strong Nina. Weak Nina probably offers the best odds for us if you like arctic air.What kind of monster doesn't? Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Its true. You have to get through spring before the ENSO signal becomes clear each year. Spring predictability barrier... https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break You won't know for sure until May or June... neutral, cold neutral, weak Nina, strong Nina. Weak Nina probably offers the best odds for us if you like arctic air. Weak/moderate Nina (-.8 to -1.3 ONI) is most likely, imo. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 What kind of monster doesn't? Pretty sure Hitler and Jeffrey Dahmer hated Arctic air. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Its true. You have to get through spring before the ENSO signal becomes clear each year. Spring predictability barrier... https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break You won't know for sure until May or June... neutral, cold neutral, weak Nina, strong Nina. Weak Nina probably offers the best odds for us if you like arctic air.Well yeah, but it's pretty obvious we are in for some sort of cold ENSO episode. What set the CFS apart for so long was that it as showing us going back into a warm neutral or even another Nino next winter for awhile. It just recently came around. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Pretty sure Hitler and Jeffrey Dahmer hated Arctic air. I heard that they were both unreasonably obsessed with arctic air and cold departures. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 I'll be happy to share stats later. Winters since 1948 (modern airport era) when the PDO averaged -1 or lower in Sep/Oct. Same thing when the PDO averaged +1 or higher in Sep/Oct (2015-16 will join this list). Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 I heard that they were both unreasonably obsessed with arctic air and cold departures. No, that was Abe Lincoln. And Ghandi. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Winters since 1948 (modern airport era) when the PDO averaged -1 or lower in Sep/Oct. -PDO.png Same thing when the PDO averaged +1 or higher in Sep/Oct (2015-16 will join this list). +PDO.pngThis doesn't tell me anything. If you want to isolate the PDO, you need to (at least) account for ENSO. One way to do this would be to seperate the years by ENSO (sign+amplitude), then do the same for their PDOs (sign+amplitude). At that point, demonstrating the correlative significance of the PDO, assuming there is any, is a much more straightforward and conclusive process. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 This doesn't tell me anything. If you want to isolate the PDO, you need to (at least) account for ENSO. One way to do this would be to seperate the years by ENSO (sign+amplitude), then do the same for their PDOs (sign+amplitude). At that point, demonstrating the correlative significance of the PDO, assuming there is any, is a much more straightforward and conclusive process. It does tell you something, it demonstrates some sort of correlation. You're basically saying it's all due to ENSO. It would take some work to separate the ENSO signal from the PDO, and I don't have time tonight. But I did it a long time ago, and it was clear that years where the PDO signal was stronger relative to ENSO, the results were very similar. Especially when you look at October. A simpler way to look at it is isolate the years that were not moderate/strong Nina: 1948, 1950, 1961, 1962, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2011, and 2012. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Not really ENSO related, but the sun is in a very low period of activity right now. The x-ray flux, 10cm flux, and sunspot number are all at the lowest levels in years. Pretty good chance of it going spotless. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Not really ENSO related, but the sun is in a very low period of activity right now. The x-ray flux, 10cm flux, and sunspot number are all at the lowest levels in years. Pretty good chance of it going spotless. This is one significant difference from the late 1990s/early 2000s, the worst -ENSO period in PNW history. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Not really ENSO related, but the sun is in a very low period of activity right now. The x-ray flux, 10cm flux, and sunspot number are all at the lowest levels in years. Pretty good chance of it going spotless. Great news. Very low solar activity seems to produce some spectacular summers around here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 It does tell you something, it demonstrates some sort of correlation. You're basically saying it's all due to ENSO. It would take some work to separate the ENSO signal from the PDO, and I don't have time tonight. But I did it a long time ago, and it was clear that years where the PDO signal was stronger relative to ENSO, the results were very similar. Especially when you look at October.Understood. If you don't have time, I can run the correlations sometime this weekend. I guess we'll find out, but fairly certain that after accounting for ENSO, most of not all of the statistically significant variability will be accounted for. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 This is one significant difference from the late 1990s/early 2000s, the worst -ENSO period in PNW history. Indeed. That Nina came during a solar max. That could easily account for the problem. Low solar activity seems to correlate with a slower jet during the winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Great news. Very low solar activity seems to produce some spectacular summers around here.If there's one thing this forum needs, it is one of our summers finally really delivering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 If there's one thing this forum needs, it is one of our summers finally really delivering. Yeah... it would be awesome for the 12 of us who post here in a region of 10 million people. Its so important! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted April 1, 2016 Report Share Posted April 1, 2016 Another good sign. Anyone have any good analogue maps of predominately AO+ winter months for the U.S.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2016 The subsurface profile suggest a rapid collapse of the Nino over the next few weeks. I think cold ENSO conditions are nearly certain by July now. The bottom has literally fallen out on the CFS ENSO forecast over the past few days. Quite impressively sea level anoms on the Equator are already more Nina like than Nino over the eastern sections. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2016 Report Share Posted April 2, 2016 The subsurface profile suggest a rapid collapse of the Nino over the next few weeks. I think cold ENSO conditions are nearly certain by July now. The bottom has literally fallen out on the CFS ENSO forecast over the past few days. Quite impressively sea level anoms on the Equator are already more Nina like than Nino over the eastern sections. You might be cursing a strong Nino next winter. Side note... your language is so colorful trying to prove a point. Like you are trying to will nature to behave the way you want. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 2, 2016 Report Share Posted April 2, 2016 You might be cursing a strong Nino next winter. Side note... your language is so colorful trying to prove a point. Like you are trying to will nature to behave the way you want. I assume you meant Niña? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2016 Report Share Posted April 2, 2016 I assume you meant Niña? I did. Just don't think a strong Nina is the path to real success next winter. I can see there being some major disappointment relative to expectations if we have a strong Nina. We all know the Nino is fading... that is a given. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2016 You might be cursing a strong Nino next winter. Side note... your language is so colorful trying to prove a point. Like you are trying to will nature to behave the way you want. I am actually hoping for a weaker Nina. Some strong ones do work out like 1942-43, 1955-56, and 1988-89. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 2, 2016 Report Share Posted April 2, 2016 I am actually hoping for a weaker Nina. Some strong ones do work out like 1942-43, 1955-56, and 1988-89. We agree. Your language was just so strong it seemed like you were cheering for the strongest Nina in history. The Nino is disappearing of course... but my hope is that the demise is tempered and slowed leaving us with a weak Nina. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted April 2, 2016 Report Share Posted April 2, 2016 We agree. Your language was just so strong it seemed like you were cheering for the strongest Nina in history. The Nino is disappearing of course... but my hope is that the demise is tempered and slowed leaving us with a weak Nina.You and I would both like a 07-08 repeat, but nobody in the lower valleys would want that. That was a really fun year here in Utah. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2016 You and I would both like a 07-08 repeat, but nobody in the lower valleys would want that. That was a really fun year here in Utah. 07-08 was very close to being good for everyone. Whatcom County managed some impressive numbers that winter. A tiny bit more amplification would have gone a long way. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 3, 2016 Report Share Posted April 3, 2016 07-08 was very close to being good for everyone. Whatcom County managed some impressive numbers that winter. A tiny bit more amplification would have gone a long way.Agreed. 2007-08 and 2008-09 were the best two back to back winters in the PNW above 1000' in a long time. Just look at Spokane. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 3, 2016 Report Share Posted April 3, 2016 Agreed. 2007-08 and 2008-09 were the best two back to back winters in the PNW above 1000' in a long time. Just look at Spokane.Shawnigan lake received a combined 132" of snow for those 2 winters. Slightly more than 200% of normal. It was a good stretch here. I think it was likely the snowiest 2 year stretch since 70-71 and 71-72. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Shawnigan lake received a combined 132" of snow for those 2 winters. Slightly more than 200% of normal. It was a good stretch here. I think it was likely the snowiest 2 year stretch since 70-71 and 71-72. It really seems to me that this El Nino acted much more like a La Nina pattern as far as the distribution of all the rainfall and snowfall is concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 The CFS flip to a NINA prediction is pretty astounding...Not that it is predicting a Nina, but on how far it has swung in that direction. The CFS right now is calling for temperatures in the SON period to be near long term normals. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 The CFS flip to a NINA prediction is pretty astounding...Not that it is predicting a Nina, but on how far it has swung in that direction. The CFS right now is calling for temperatures in the SON period to be near long term normals. I heard that there was some kind of fix applied to it. Can't have the flagship climate model of the USA be that clueless can we? Well... Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 CFS now says ENSO goes negative by late June. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 12, 2016 Report Share Posted April 12, 2016 Based on the location, intensity, and forward propagation of the upwelling tongue (trailing the remnants of the last coherent oceanic KW), we should see negative equatorial SSTAs surface in the vicinity of 140W-160W between April 25th and May 10th. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2016 Based on the location, intensity, and forward propagation of the upwelling tongue (trailing the remnants of the last coherent oceanic KW), we should see negative equatorial SSTAs surface in the vicinity of 140W-160W between April 25th and May 10th. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml Looks like the transition is going to be very sudden. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 14, 2016 Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 Interesting to note the eastward shift in the upwelling tongue/cooling relative to both 1983 and 1998. What's currently ongoing is more reminiscent of what occurred in 1988, delayed by approximately 5-8 weeks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 Interesting to note the eastward shift in the upwelling tongue/cooling relative to both 1983 and 1998. What's currently ongoing is more reminiscent of what occurred in 1988, delayed by approximately 5-8 weeks. 1988 - 89 was a really interesting winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted April 14, 2016 Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 1988-89 was not really that interesting in Socal, since it was such a dry winter, being a part of the late 80's to early 90's drought. However, we have had better La Nina years more recently that have been more interesting. I have a feeling a La Nina this winter may be much different and potentially much wetter, and one reason I think this is because this El Nino was such a major bust for the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted April 14, 2016 Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 Scripps is going ape on a super la nina. I'm doubtful, though. I'd say we get a third or half the reading it's outputting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 14, 2016 Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 Looks like the newer CFS ensemble runs (blue plots) decided to join the super-Niña party. My opinion is still unchanged, as I favor a moderate event in the -1.1 to -1.3 ONI range. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/images3/nino34Monadj.gif 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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