GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Tom]

2 days ago the 12z EPS had a similar placement of SLP down near N AR with a banana HP in southern Canada...keep an eye on where the highest heights are centered in Canada...just north of Lake Superior.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016012412/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png

 

Today's 12z EPS run...similar placement of SLP in N AR/S MO.  However, take a look where the highest heights are now...just north of the Dakotas and stronger.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016012612/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

[ToastedRavs]

Big changes on 18z GFS.

 

Why oh why do people still look at and fret over the 6 & 18z runs this far out!?! Haven't we all learned by now these are useless?! Or is it just me? Smh

[Geos]

Tom, is it pretty unusual for a system to close off in the Rockies? I always remember bowling balls forming in the Plains.

[Tom]

Tom, is it pretty unusual for a system to close off in the Rockies? I always remember bowling balls forming in the Plains.

I find systems closing off either when the AO/EPO is sky high or in the early Autumn or late Spring....certainly not in the heart of Winter, esp in this type of pattern we are in.

[Tom]

This storm may in fact cut right over Chicago or just NW or just SE...it's becoming clear to me that if the storm cuts NE later it gives the lower lakes a shot at snow, if it cuts early, then it will be a western lakes storm.

[gosaints]

U guys are gonna drive yourself nuts on this one. The ensembles that are being referenced show a wide range of solutions which would be expected 180 hours out. Climo would argue against a hard cut but the airmass it is cutting.into is nothing special.

[Tornadobrah89]

The low is going to go through southern Missouri give or take 100 miles. Book it. Most of the models are showing this. It is always colder on the back end of these storms just like the last one. Pretty sure kc and Chicago will get slammed but I would not be surprised to see it further south. Models are already pushing it more south and we're still 7 days out

[gosaints]

The low is going to go through southern Missouri give or take 100 miles. Book it. Most of the models are showing this. It is always colder on the back end of these storms just like the last one. Pretty sure kc and Chicago will get slammed but I would not be surprised to see it further south. Models are already pushing it more south and we're still 7 days out

Lol at the reasoning. This storm could go south but it.wont be because they always do or because of some crazy cold airmass

[Tom]

00z Euro Para...sorry, that was last nights...

[bud2380]

DGEX!

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

[jcwxguy]

of all the times, i hope somehow that model is correct.

[GDR]

[bud2380]

Canadian Ensembles are currently indicating a further south track than what the GFS and Euro show. 

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/cmc_geps_amer_12/PNMPR_panel_168.gif

[bud2380]

And the seldom referenced (and experimental) FIM model.  I like this one.

 

 

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2016012612/236/totsn_sfc_f240.png

[NEJeremy]

So which way is it? I've heard before that the LRC is helpful on determining WHEN a storm will come through, but not necessarily WHERE. Now I am seeing the LRC will also determine the path? So we should expect that the storm is going to dig way south because it did that on the last cycle?

[bud2380]

closer view

 

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2016012612/t2/totsn_sfc_f240.png

[Geos]

Wow, we're busting out the FIM now!

 

This is huge. Having the high banana out like that. Just shift the low over the boot heel of MO and it's perfect.

 

[hlcater]

Faith restored? As typical if you haven't noticed I'm one to get exited or depressed over 1 run.  

[centralweather44]

I love where I am at right now, but holding my breath. Being in the bullseye a week out is never good. Just hoping to see something. Southeast Nebraska will either be on northern or southern edge. Just hate sitting in the good spot this far out. We all know how this goes.

[Tom]

So which way is it? I've heard before that the LRC is helpful on determining WHEN a storm will come through, but not necessarily WHERE. Now I am seeing the LRC will also determine the path? So we should expect that the storm is going to dig way south because it did that on the last cycle?

The last 2 cycles it dug deep into AZ/NM, unlike the GFS is showing.  It's true you can say that the LRC is a good tool to predict a storm during a certain time period.  In this situation, teleconnections are almost identical from previous cycles except the EPO is slightly negative during this period.

[Money]

So many people wish casting and rooting for something that is so far away and can change on any run

[bud2380]

So many people wish casting and rooting for something that is so far away and can change on any run

I don't know if you are referring to me but I'm just posting what the models are showing. No wishing or rooting, just facts. Besides isn't "rooting" the fun part? Why would anyone here want their area to just miss out?

[bud2380]

Terry swails is a meteorologist for cbs 2 in Cedar Rapids. I just read a Facebook post of his. He really loves snow, wow. He says he fears the heaviest snow will miss our area just to the north. But he admits that is just speculation

[Money]

Wasn't talking about you but these models will change so it's no point in people getting upset at this point

[gosaints]

Wasn't talking about you but these models will change so it's no point in people getting upset at this point

No doubt. I all seriousness it could be anywhere from congrats brainerd to congrats indy....

[Money]

By Thursday night or Friday we should be getting a much better understanding and narrow down the track more as we'll be getting under 100 ish hours

[Tom]

So many people wish casting and rooting for something that is so far away and can change on any run

I'm all about model interpretation this far out and deciphering the differences among them even though it is over 120 hours out.  It makes it fun trying to see which one had it right very early in the game.  This season, I have made several calls of storms cutting NW of here or right over Chicago.  For this particular storm, I feel a bit different about it.

[Geos]

DGEX!

 

That's not as ridiculous as it usually is. I could see 20" amounts with this storm somewhere.

[gosaints]

That's not as ridiculous as it usually is. I could see 20" amounts with this storm somewhere.

Lol been.awhile since we have seen a swath of snow.anywhere near that wide

[Tom]

Yesterday's 12z JMA compared to today's run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016012512/jma_T850_namer_9.png

 

vs...today's 12z run...big difference in HP in western Canada and the northern plains...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016012612/jma_T850_namer_8.png

[Money]

I'm all about model interpretation this far out and deciphering the differences among them even though it is over 120 hours out. It makes it fun trying to see which one had it right very early in the game. This season, I have made several calls of storms cutting NW of here or right over Chicago. For this particular storm, I feel a bit different about it.

I agree but saying a model is going to be wrong or right is dumb when it's this far out . All models need to be considered

[james1976]

Local met posted this. This looks to be a map from NOAA.
http://addins.kwwl.com/blogs/weather/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1-506x250.jpg

[Tom]

I agree but saying a model is going to be wrong or right is dumb when it's this far out . All models need to be considered

I was basically giving my 2 cents on each model's interpretation.

[Money]

Saying the ggem will stay put and euro to trend SE is wish casting IMO

[Tom]

Saying the ggem will stay put and euro to trend SE is wish casting IMO

Look at the EPS members...stark difference in operational vs ensemble...right???

[gosaints]

Look at the EPS members...stark difference in operational vs ensemble...right???

If the ggem locks in at this range that would be a surprise. It will jump around. Might come eventually back to where it is but it wont lock at this range.

 

And ensembles mean should be somewhat south and east at this range as well right?

 

This thread is going to be very long....

[Money]

Look at the EPS members...stark difference in operational vs ensemble...right???

Ensembles should always be SE at this time frame because there will be members that don't have the storm etc

[Tom]

Ensembles should always be SE at this time frame because there will be members that don't have the storm etc

EPS has shifted SE each day almost since 2 days ago...been watching them...

 

If the ggem locks in at this range that would be a surprise. It will jump around. Might come eventually back to where it is but it wont lock at this range.

 

And ensembles mean should be somewhat south and east at this range as well right?

 

This thread is going to be very long....

Not always....and...I agree....get ready for the ride...

[OKwx2k4]

Known euro bias at this range is almost always north and west.

[Geos]

Ensembles should always be SE at this time frame because there will be members that don't have the storm etc

 

But sometimes you have multiple members NW and that would pull the mean NW. If there is no storm, then those solutions won't be factored into the track.