hlcater Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020118/rgem_asnow_ncus_14.png RGEM sticking to its guns. Not buying it. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160201/18Z/f021/sfcconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160201/18Z/f015/sfcconus.png Holy buckets 991!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020118/rgem_asnow_ncus_14.png RGEM sticking to its guns. Not buying it.RGEM has held its ground since 48 hours out, hardly any movement or shift in totals. This thing is strengthening before our eyes, I think MANY of us will be surprised, whether that be lack of/enhanced totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020118/rgem_asnow_ncus_14.png RGEM sticking to its guns. Not buying it.PLEASE BE RIGHT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 apparently the RGEM nailed the snow totals for the east coast blizzard within 24 hours so this bodes well for us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Some of us might be bi polar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 apparently the RGEM nailed the snow totals for the east coast blizzard within 24 hours so this bodes well for usIt's done incredibly well this year. From what I can tell, the RAP is similar, D**n HRRR is busted right now (of course...), it's also evident the NWS is siding with it. Sure hope it pulls this off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Some off us might be bi polarwhatsup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Really thinking the heaviest will be from my area back to the Southwest. Central Nebraska Weather will do great! We should easily be able to pull off 12+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowO Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 A live news conference right now in Omaha regarding this storm. Lol!! Sounds like a 100yr storm is abt to hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 I am predicting 17" plus. We already have close to 3-4 inches of heavy wet snow. Even though the wind is not blowing that strong yet there has been some drifting. When it gets colder and drier snow with 50 mph plus winds as some predict when the really heavy snow arrives things will be awesome to watch from my living room Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 I am predicting 17" plus. We already have close to 3-4 inches of heavy wet snow. Even though the wind is not blowing that strong yet there has been some drifting. When it gets colder and drier snow with 50 mph plus winds as some predict when the really heavy snow arrives things will be awesome to watch from my living roomTime Lapse? That'll be cool. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 NWS Green Bay AFD TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE A TAD BIT LATER TO START...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CURRENT START TIMES OF THE WARNINGS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VILAS COUNTY WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE COMBO OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW AND THEN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST- CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY UNTIL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT SNOW TOTALS. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE (NEAR THE LAKESHORE). THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW. SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION ON THE MODELS...SO DID NOT EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS FEATURE STILL HOLDS TRUE ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN...MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING IN THIS REGION. DID LOWER SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE MIXING TAKING PLACE IN THIS REGION. RAISED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO COMBO SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 I am predicting 17" plus. We already have close to 3-4 inches of heavy wet snow. Even though the wind is not blowing that strong yet there has been some drifting. When it gets colder and drier snow with 50 mph plus winds as some predict when the really heavy snow arrives things will be awesome to watch from my living room24" for you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 I would take it. We will see where heavy bands set up in the next 24 hours. They are now saying it has slowed by 6 hours which should only add to the totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 HRRR levels the whole state, similar to the RGEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Some early pictures of the precursor snow. Definitely more than I thought. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 https://www.facebook.com/clint.beed/videos/1114265028586037/?pnref=story First flakes of the Blizzard of 2016. 3 P.M. Aurora, Nebraska Looking good Clint. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 apparently the RGEM nailed the snow totals for the east coast blizzard within 24 hours so this bodes well for us It's a good model close in.Still not discounting a couple inches here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Hmm... lowest pressure down by Big Bend. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 1/2 mile visibility in heavy snow. Winds east at 15 gusts to 20 mph. Sticking to streets and sidewalks. Getting treacherous out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Randby at KETV Omaha just called for 6-8" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 HRRR @ Hour 11: http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016020122/central/hrrr_ref_central_12.png Hour 14: Incredible Snowfall Rates near Lincoln/Omaha, lot more following: http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016020122/central/hrrr_ref_central_15.png According to this model, the banding setup is further south than the GFS/NAM, it essentially packs a punch for every Nebraskan on this forum. It'd be ideal for it to pan out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Lots of dry air in northern Kansas http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_640x480c/SIR/inmaSIRNE_.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Lots of dry air in northern Kansas http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_640x480c/SIR/inmaSIRNE_.gifHRRR picks up on it. It wasn't supposed to begin until late anyways, so this unexpected dendrite type rainfall/snowfall on the radar could be saturating the atmosphere for later, which is a plus. Here is the total through 15 hour, still heavy snow falling throughout the whole state. http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016020122/central/hrrr_snow_central_16.pngThundersnow looking more and more inevitable around here. Though we won't get the totals like Clint/CentralNebWeather, we're going to get some incredible snowfall rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 HRRR @ Hour 11: http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016020122/central/hrrr_ref_central_12.png Hour 14: Incredible Snowfall Rates near Lincoln/Omaha, lot more following: http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016020122/central/hrrr_ref_central_15.png According to this model, the banding setup is further south than the GFS/NAM, it essentially packs a punch for every Nebraskan on this forum. It'd be ideal for it to pan out.Wow. Those rates with 50-60 mph wind gusts would be legendary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Would love to see this happen tomorrow morning. If it does I'll be shooting video. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 HRRR is siding with the RGEM? all hope may not be lost Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowO Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Hmm... lowest pressure down by Big Bend. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s15/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1454368621527 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowO Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 What's your take on this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Would love to see this happen tomorrow morning. If it does I'll be shooting video. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020118/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_8.pngThat would be pretty sweet. Maybe tomorrow we can get lucky and have a repeat of the 28th! Lol na Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 What's your take on this? Low looks to be forming near Abilene right now. Pressure falls would suggest the low being in Texas for awhile at least. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 That would be pretty sweet. Maybe tomorrow we can get lucky and have a repeat of the 28th! Lol na Lol.Weirder things have happened though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 well, the RGEM and HRRR drill me with 8-10 inches. What are the odds that they are correct. I know that the HRRR is a very good model predicting how storms will evolve. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 We'll have to watch and see if the low loops into KS like the models have it or does it go from central OK up into SE KS more.I don't know if it is going to retrograde that far back. RGEM has it getting to 22° by midnight, let's see how close it can get. 10° to go. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 23Z HRRR is definitely southeast of where it was on the 22Z at hour 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 23Z HRRR is definitely southeast of where it was on the 22Z at hour 10. This is matching up real nice. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 23Z HRRR is definitely southeast of where it was on the 22Z at hour 10.Nice. Is it still moist? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Low goes all the way to Tulsa by 1am. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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