Ground Hog Day Blizzard/Snowstorm Part II

[pack402]

Raining now. No mixing yet

[NEJeremy]

What are your guys's opinions of using the models that aren't short-term models now that the storm has started? The GFS and the Canadian and the 12 km NAM all look great for Omaha now but shouldn't we only be looking at the short-term models? When I look at the short-term models they have a bigger dry slot and keep our totals closer to 8 inches. Just wondering if I should be that excited about the other models showing more when they technically aren't short-term models.

[gabel23]

What are your guys's opinions of the models that aren't short-term models? The GFS and the Canadian and the 12 km NAM all look great for Omaha now but shouldn't we only be looking at the short-term models? When I look at the short-term models they have a bigger dry slot and keep our totals closer to 8 inches. Just wondering if I should be that excited about the other models showing more when they technically aren't short-term models.

By no means am I a pro at this, but I would look at current radar/upper air analysis. To this point it looks like this thing is a wrapped up beast and we should all be good, also thunder snow should be a lock from Columbus, York, Lincoln and towards Omaha. I think that because it's the closest to the pivot point of the low, either way radar should start ripping as this storm approaches our southeast; that's my two cents.......mean while snow is finally falling continuously, hoping it doesn't stop for 18 hours. 

[Snowlover76]

Ya, im worried about a dryslot too. But Cantore is in Sioux City so maybe it wont happen 

[ToastedRavs]

The HRRR keeps with the slight east and se push. Yes there will be a dry slot around here, but looking better for actually achieving warning criteria snows. Not often I say this, but what I would give to live in central Nebraska, rather than central Iowa! Congrats out there!

[Geos]

I don't think the dry slot is going to surge into Nebraska. If the storm is going to hit a roadblock somewhere near I-70 and then turn ENE and take the dry slot that way. I think Nebraska City could dry slot, but not much farther north.

 

Down another degree here.

[Geos]

Ok this wasn't modeled. Primary low jumped west.

 

 

 

[Snowlover76]

What are the implications of that occurring? 

[Geos]

What are the implications of that occurring? 

 

Storm may slow up a bit. It could jump back east in another hour.

 

4z HRRR

 

[NEJeremy]

35 and a light mix right now. primarily rain, but you can see fat flakes mixing in

[Snowlover76]

i assume its raining here in Lincoln right now.  Too lazy to get up and check. 

[jcwxguy]

i assume its raining here in Lincoln right now.  Too lazy to get up and check. 

it is, lightly

[Money]

This is one interesting storm to track

[Snowlover76]

it is, lightly

meh, storm isn't even supposed to get going here until like 6am anyway. 

[NEJeremy]

Storm may slow up a bit. It could jump back east in another hour.

 

4z HRRR

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160202/0400Z/f015/acckucherasnowc.png

Man on the 4Z, the low gets down to 988mb and basically sits stationary in north central Kansas for the last 7 hours of the run. really pushes the dry slot up to Omaha

[CentralNebWeather]

Heavy snow with winds now gusting to 35 mph. Nws Hastings has my forecast for potentially another 17 inches on top of what I have which is pushing 6.5 - 7.0

[CentralNebWeather]

Man on the 4Z, the low gets down to 988mb and basically sits stationary in north central Kansas for the last 7 hours of the run. really pushes the dry slot up to Omaha

I saw that. Crazy but it keeps on giving huge amounts

[Jaycee]

It's unfortunate but I can't disagree, the dry slot hangs over LNK OMA.

[Snowlover76]

 really pushes the dry slot up to Omaha

ewwwww

[Snowlover76]

It's unfortunate but I can't disagree, the dry slot hangs over LNK OMA.

hopefully its wrong

[Jaycee]

hopefully its wrong

The slot isn't as bad here as it is in Omaha, it kind of goes due east of our country and continues over OMA down through Plattsmouth. 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160202/0000Z/f014/crefc.png

[Geos]

Looks like the only models that caught the westward jog of the low was the RGEM and 4km NAM.

 

25°, still falling. No fog yet.

[Jaycee]

Looks like the only models that caught the westward jog of the low was the RGEM and 4km NAM.

Geos what are your thoughts for Lincoln? I'm torn, the HRRR gives us 8", but the slot scares me, yet at the same time the RGEM has drilled us with 18".

[Snowlover76]

The slot isn't as bad here as it is in Omaha, it kind of goes due east of our country and continues over OMA down through Plattsmouth. 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160202/0000Z/f014/crefc.png

It will still have to be watched though.  That dryslot could be the difference between getting 8" and 14" 

[Geos]

Geos what are your thoughts for Lincoln? I'm torn, the HRRR gives us 8", but the slot scares me, yet at the same time the RGEM has drilled us with 18".

 

It could be close. Sometimes the HRRR can have a NW bias and push things too far at the end of its range. If convection is really strong or if the low appears to be taking a jog north, then it could dry slot by you.

[Jaycee]

It could be close. Sometimes the HRRR can have a NW bias and push things too far at the end of its range. If convection is really strong or if the low appears to be taking a jog north, then it could dry slot by you.

Thanks man. The anxiety has never been stronger, praying for the slot to stay away.

[Snowlover76]

Thanks man. The anxiety has never been stronger, praying for the slot to stay away.

Id say we are good for at least 8" here in Lincoln and Money is good for about $25 

[Geos]

Primary low still sitting west.

 

 

 

This storm could wind up in western KS and just come shooting ENE in the morning.

[NEJeremy]

Anyone have the Euro snow amounts for 0Z? Also in looking at the 5Z mesoanalysis and what the HRRR is showing for 5Z, the low pressure is definitely off. Mesoanalysis still has it in southeastern Colorado and the HRRR says it should be in Oklahoma

[ToastedRavs]

The trends on HRRR is stall, stall, stall...or even retrograde!

[Snowlover76]

With this storm moving slower, does that mean that snow totals could possibly go up here? 

[Guest Snowball]

No, it goes northeast of us

[Geos]

With this storm moving slower, does that mean that snow totals could possibly go up here? 

 

Yes.

HRRR isn't doing a good job with low placement right now. If I was in eastern NE, I would ride the RGEM as this point.

Dry slot could come into Nebraska, but maybe further west.

 

Wondering what kind of effect this is going to have further east now. Precip start time later in the afternoon?

[jcwxguy]

Yes.

HRRR isn't doing a good job with low placement right now. If I was in eastern NE, I would ride the RGEM as this point.

Dry slot could come into Nebraska, but maybe further west.

 

Wondering what kind of effect this is going to have further east now. Precip start time later in the afternoon?

more precip breaking out over northern kansas and southern nebraska as we speak

[Snowlover76]

It looks like it might have rained lightly here.  Was expecting precip to be here by now 

[Geos]

Very nice conveyor belt of moisture.

 

[Grizzcoat]

this is basically turning into a nowcast-- who would have thought this 24 hours ago??  This thing was locked in for days when it was in PAC-- then most thought things would get more clarity once it was sampled better-- yeah right. Even though my location is not going to see the heaviest snow-- this is really fun to track,, and who really knows at this point?

[clintbeed1993]

Very nice conveyor belt of moisture.

 

moisture_020216.png

 

Central Nebraska is going to get hammered, can already tell.  If anything this storm has slowed way down.  Look at that precip shield.  Coming straight at us and the low isn't even moving East yet.

[clintbeed1993]

Tons of lightning strikes with that precip in Kansas.

[Snowlover76]

Alright bedtime here. Hopefully when I wake up around 6:30 it's pouring snow here.