January 2014 in the PNW

[Sometimesdylan]

 

And who was the lone 49ers fan there???    Why would he want to put up with you guys??      

 

That was me.

 

 

I spoke too much. Back to the cave.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Trends are looking nice for a active February.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just crazy how calm the weather has been. March and April will be ugly.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I was wondering if Flatiron is going to join the new forum, or is he posting under a new name?

[Guest Winterdog]

Better! With much improvement at 168 hours

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro is getting there.

[snow_wizard]

Euro is getting there.

Looks like it's there to me. Fabulous block!

 

This pattern change has been extremely well advertised for a while now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good to see the improvement on the EURO!

[snow_wizard]

Good to see the improvement on the EURO!

The block at day 10 is dead on 150 and extends to the North Pole. If that verifies we will get nailed in the days following.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like it's there to me. Fabulous block!

 

This pattern change has been extremely well advertised for a while now.

Yeah awesome block for sure. However I was nervous to get to positive on here about the snow coming in 2 weeks.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah awesome block for sure. However I was nervous to get to positive on here about the snow coming in 2 weeks.

To me it's fun to dream a little bit. Always fretting about it possibly falling through takes the fun out of it. At this point I'm satisfied a major pattern change will take place within 10 days. Obviously the details are still evolving, but given the extreme nature of what has been happening east of the Rockies there is no reason to think something similar couldn't happen here (at least anomalously speaking). People need to remember that we are just as capable of getting huge minus anomalies as the eastern US, and what they have been getting is very anomalous. A great Feb is very possible.

[snow_wizard]

This also validates... ok it doesn’t validate, but it gives some more power to the extreme SOI values last week.

No question the SOI is a decent forecasting tool. The December cold wave happened right around a big SOI spike also.

[westiztehbest]

No question the SOI is a decent forecasting tool. The December cold wave happened right around a big SOI spike also.

[Bryant]

No question the SOI is a decent forecasting tool. The December cold wave happened right around a big SOI spike also.

The SOI also directly correlates with the MJO, which has been another great tool this winter. They go hand in hand nicely

[50shadesofvan]

I can feel the hype building already...

 

I'm sure some of you read the blog post by Brad Panovich "Wishcasting Vs. Forecasting." He also goes over some detail about the main difference between deterministic and ensemble forecasting, a great introduction to those not as familiar with the subject.

 

He makes some REALLY excellent points, and it inspired a recent post of mine (Why Meteorologists get a Bad Reputation), that might be worth your time. I know a lot of weather enthusiasts are passionate about this topic, so I'd love to hear what some of you felt. 

 

As a side note, I wonder if it would be worth starting up a thread/topic just for the discussion of weather blogs?...

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF might be improving... but its still not showing anything great.

 

Snow levels around maybe 1500-2000 feet.

 

Just because it improved does not mean its going to continue until its genuinely cold and snowy in the lowlands.      Be careful with the hype.   

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF might be improving... but its still not showing anything great.

 

Snow levels around maybe 1500-2000 feet.

 

Just because it improved does not mean its going to continue until its genuinely cold and snowy in the lowlands.      Be careful with the hype.

You didn't notice how the block goes to the pole and the ridge axis is at 150W? Then you have a cold short wave about to dig down from Canada. I can't believe the negative spin everyone is putting on things right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

 

Nice analog composite tonight.  This is day 11, but the day 8 composite is by far the best I've seen yet.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

Significant improvement seen here. I would like to see the correlation rate higher of course.

 

This ain't too shabby either.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.temp.gif

Not too shabby at all.

 

The ensembles are good!

Improving.

 

how you see this as a negative post just shows how unbalanced you are being. I only stated what the models show... Not wish casting that it all happens. Try taking off your rose colored glasses that I was negative and read it from a perspective that I was just talking about what the model showed. Your being a bit ridiculous. I have never once said this would not happen, nor winter is over, but yet you attack me. Sorry I am not jumping all over something we have seen the models spit out over and over again in the 10 plus day period...

I completely agree. It's called being objective or realistic. Don't jump on people if what they are posting isn't what you want to hear. Allow people to have an opinion.

 

Better! With much improvement at 168 hours

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

Looks quite good. Nice pattern progression after day 7.

 

Looks like it's there to me. Fabulous block!

 

This pattern change has been extremely well advertised for a while now.

 

 

Good to see the improvement on the EURO!

I wasn’t expecting to see that. It leaves some room for newly found optimism.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS

 

Another GFS run, another favorable 500mb progression with strong retrogression noted. This run was much drier though. Timing moved up a bit on this run with the cold air arriving by day 9-10(Day 8-9 northern Washington). Not day 11-13. Anyhow it should be worth noting that the pattern itself is favorable much sooner by day 6-7 with the block offshore, it's rather a matter of when retrogression begins. If it's when the EURO suggested you could see the colder air arrive a bit sooner than day 9-10. When I look at the 500mb pattern I see the potential of it moving into the picture by day 7-8 is not out of question. At any rate we seem to have a trend now with the GFS towards a cold to very cold pattern.

 

Onto 12z runs later this morning and let's see if they mirror last night's 00z at all. I'm starting to get a tad encouraged.

[Phil]

I can feel the hype building already...

 

I'm sure some of you read the blog post by Brad Panovich "Wishcasting Vs. Forecasting." He also goes over some detail about the main difference between deterministic and ensemble forecasting, a great introduction to those not as familiar with the subject.

 

He makes some REALLY excellent points, and it inspired a recent post of mine (Why Meteorologists get a Bad Reputation), that might be worth your time. I know a lot of weather enthusiasts are passionate about this topic, so I'd love to hear what some of you felt.

 

As a side note, I wonder if it would be worth starting up a thread/topic just for the discussion of weather blogs?...

This. Good post.

[Phil]

Obviously the details are still evolving, but given the extreme nature of what has been happening east of the Rockies there is no reason to think something similar couldn't happen here (at least anomalously speaking). People need to remember that we are just as capable of getting huge minus anomalies as the eastern US, and what they have been getting is very anomalous. A great Feb is very possible.

Did you get my PM response regarding the map?

 

Anyway, the cold we've been getting is far from historic. I don't think riling up the board for -20F departures is a good idea, especially given the rarity of such anomalies rarely west of the Cascades. Being "capable" of something doesn't mean much.

[50shadesofvan]

 

6z GFS

 

Another GFS run, another favorable 500mb progression with strong retrogression noted. This run was much drier though. Timing moved up a bit on this run with the cold air arriving by day 9-10(Day 8-9 northern Washington). Not day 11-13. Anyhow it should be worth noting that the pattern itself is favorable much sooner by day 6-7 with the block offshore, it's rather a matter of when retrogression begins. If it's when the EURO suggested you could see the colder air arrive a bit sooner than day 9-10. When I look at the 500mb pattern I see the potential of it moving into the picture by day 7-8 is not out of question. At any rate we seem to have a trend now with the GFS towards a cold to very cold pattern.

 

Onto 12z runs later this morning and let's see if they mirror last night's 00z at all. I'm starting to get a tad encouraged.

 

 

Yeah, I'm starting to get a little curious to what all those 12Z deterministic runs will look like this morning too Rob. Would like to see a tad more moisture in them, as you noted..

 

NAEFS temp anomaly improving past couple days...slowly but surely transitioning to cooler than normal, compared to the map 72 hours ago. 

 

[Jesse]

 

6z GFS

 

Another GFS run, another favorable 500mb progression with strong retrogression noted. This run was much drier though. Timing moved up a bit on this run with the cold air arriving by day 9-10(Day 8-9 northern Washington). Not day 11-13. Anyhow it should be worth noting that the pattern itself is favorable much sooner by day 6-7 with the block offshore, it's rather a matter of when retrogression begins. If it's when the EURO suggested you could see the colder air arrive a bit sooner than day 9-10. When I look at the 500mb pattern I see the potential of it moving into the picture by day 7-8 is not out of question. At any rate we seem to have a trend now with the GFS towards a cold to very cold pattern.

 

Onto 12z runs later this morning and let's see if they mirror last night's 00z at all. I'm starting to get a tad encouraged.

 

 

Why? I thought winter was over like three weeks ago?

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

6z GFS

 

Another GFS run, another favorable 500mb progression with strong retrogression noted. This run was much drier though. Timing moved up a bit on this run with the cold air arriving by day 9-10(Day 8-9 northern Washington). Not day 11-13. Anyhow it should be worth noting that the pattern itself is favorable much sooner by day 6-7 with the block offshore, it's rather a matter of when retrogression begins. If it's when the EURO suggested you could see the colder air arrive a bit sooner than day 9-10. When I look at the 500mb pattern I see the potential of it moving into the picture by day 7-8 is not out of question. At any rate we seem to have a trend now with the GFS towards a cold to very cold pattern.

 

Onto 12z runs later this morning and let's see if they mirror last night's 00z at all. I'm starting to get a tad encouraged.

 

Great post and totally agree. It is nice to see things move up a tad and a continued improving pattern. The key I have been looking for before I even believe this is consistency, Placement, and that it starts to move up. Bring on the 12z!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Heights might get as low as the 510's, but because its in February, 42 and rain.

Umm no.

[Brennan]

And who was the lone 49ers fan there???    Why would he want to put up with you guys??     

I’m glad you enjoyed it! I cut the footage from 3 hours down to 8 minutes, and it took me all of 6 hours. The lone 49ers fan was my cousin’s boyfriend. He’s from SoCal and she met him in Vegas. He was over for the game at San Fran, and he made sure we all felt like crap after they beat us in December. Revenge never felt so good. We also had a bet with him that if the Hawks won, he had to dress up in Seahawks gear and take a pic in front of the Seahawks flag, as you can see in the last still shot at the end of the video. The quality of it wasn’t great so you might not have been able to depict that. Anyway, I sent the video to the Seahawks fan page on facebook and my buddy posted it on several of the players twitter pages last night. Hopefully they like it as well! 

 

As for the weather, the 6z GFS keeps things looking interesting for us past week 1. It has become apparent that things are going to stay blocky as ridging shifts westward in the long range. Most of us will have snow on the ground in 12 days.. Maybe sooner... Per Euro, 9 days?. Here comes the 12z....

[Brennan]

To me it's fun to dream a little bit. Always fretting about it possibly falling through takes the fun out of it. At this point I'm satisfied a major pattern change will take place within 10 days. Obviously the details are still evolving, but given the extreme nature of what has been happening east of the Rockies there is no reason to think something similar couldn't happen here (at least anomalously speaking). People need to remember that we are just as capable of getting huge minus anomalies as the eastern US, and what they have been getting is very anomalous. A great Feb is very possible.

In the words of Russell Wilson, WHY NOT US?

 

If the East is capable of such extremities, why not us? 

 

EDIT: The 12z fuses a couple of ingredients together... Snowstorm at day 9.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z looks snowy...

[HighlandExperience]

In the words of Russell Wilson, WHY NOT US?

 

If the East is capable of such extremities, why not us? 

 

EDIT: The 12z fuses a couple of ingredients together... Snowstorm at day 9.

 

Exactly. Why not us?

 

Things seem to be moving back in the right direction.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another springlike day in progress in the Central Willamette Valley. 

[Jesse]

Another springlike day in progress in the Central Willamette Valley.

Why the trolling?

[Jesse]

It has been cold, windy and foggy in spots out here in the gorge the last several days. I have been pretty pleased with the fake cold associated with the ridge. Nice reminder that the inversion season is still in full swing in late January, despite some people trying to shorten it by a week on each end with every passing year.

 

Had highs only in the 30s yesterday and Monday. There is also a considerable amount of freezing fog on the higher hills. Makes it look like the trees have a fresh coating of snow. A nice reminder that it is definitely still winter!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why the trolling?

 

Sunny skies and 44 degrees at 10am headed for the 50s. Seems a lot more like early spring than January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Feels like inversion season is winding down quickly now. Would never get a day like this in December or early January.

[Jesse]

Sunny skies and 44 degrees at 10am headed for the 50s. Seems a lot more like early spring than January.

Or just a ridgy period in late January...

[GobBluth]

12z canadian is a great pattern evolution but still looks too warm for snow - potential for the nice confluence of arctic air from the north and undercutting moisture under the GOA ridge.

[Jesse]

Feels like inversion season is winding down quickly now. Would never get a day like this in December or early January.

There is strong offshore flow right now thanks to the massive, inversion induced cold pool east of the cascades. PDX has been seeing east wind gusts close to 40mph. I think that has more to do with the clearing down the valley than the blisteringly strong late January sun.

 

Rush the seasons to a ridiculous extent if you'd like though. You won't find me talking about fall in late July. Maybe mid-August at the earliest. By then the change in daylight actually becomes noticeable to the casual observer. Just like the lengthening days will in mid-February.

[Jesse]

12z ensembles are decent. Definitely good agreement on a big pattern change at this point.

[Jesse]

Btw, I am still curious about the option to put people on ignore here. There a certain few I have in mind...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Btw, I am still curious about the option to put people on ignore here. There a certain few I have in mind...

 

 

I appreciate a diversity of opinions and perspectives.