Snowman Josh Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Destiny is the rising sun. That's why they call me. Bad company, til the day I die. 1 Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's why they call me. Bad company, til the day I die.I'm talking about the ridge of course. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyC Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm just not buying the digging the EURO is showing...given very little offshore amplitude, it just doesn't seem realistic. I guess we will see what happens. The pattern is just super awkward/frustrating, as it's almost awesome...yet all these stupid cut-off features put a dent in the great pattern. Like what happened a few weeks back. Seems to be the story of this Winter. Both the EURO and GFS are showing another major pattern change in about 10 days, with strong zonal flow and a strong GOA low...great for the mountain snowpack...and great for rain lovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm just not buying the digging the EURO is showing...given very little offshore amplitude, it just doesn't seem realistic. I guess we will see what happens. The pattern is just super awkward/frustrating, as it's almost awesome...yet all these stupid cut-off features put a dent in the great pattern. Like what happened a few weeks back. Seems to be the story of this Winter. Both the EURO and GFS are showing another major pattern change in about 10 days, with strong zonal flow and a strong GOA low...great for the mountain snowpack...and great for rain lovers. You'll be a rain lover for about five days. After that you'll be ready for the next pattern, and refusing to purchase something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyC Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 You'll be a rain lover for about five days. After that you'll be ready for the next pattern, and refusing to purchase something. Bingo!! You know me too well, Jesse! I would prefer a little bit more of an active pattern... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Bingo!! You know me too well, Jesse! I would prefer a little bit more of an active pattern... Let's allow the current one to play itself out first. The potential is there for lots of action, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'd prefer a zonal flow in the Spring to allow for variable weather, followed by nice Sunshine for the Summer and stubborn ridging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I just noticed something in the ECMWF that makes me believe tonights run will be the best yet. Stayed tuned.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I just noticed something in the ECMWF that makes me believe tonights run will be the best yet. Stayed tuned.......... Could you give a hint? I do like how the 18z GFS kept things cold for a day or two longer than previous runs. The ensemble control model was insanely cold for a long time. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I just noticed something in the ECMWF that makes me believe tonights run will be the best yet. Stayed tuned..........I already know where this is going so I'll check back later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm just not buying the digging the EURO is showing...given very little offshore amplitude, it just doesn't seem realistic. I guess we will see what happens. The pattern is just super awkward/frustrating, as it's almost awesome...yet all these stupid cut-off features put a dent in the great pattern. Like what happened a few weeks back. Seems to be the story of this Winter. Both the EURO and GFS are showing another major pattern change in about 10 days, with strong zonal flow and a strong GOA low...great for the mountain snowpack...and great for rain lovers. That's not totally true. The pattern is actually blocked up to about 80 degrees north in a haphazard way at the time the ECMWF shows that digging. The Canadian has been similar the past couple of runs. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I already know where this is going so I'll check back later Why is everyone speaking in riddles? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Why is everyone speaking in riddles?It's just weenie BS. Don't worry about it Jim. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The NAM strongly suggests there will be some light snow Sunday night. We'll see, but I am always suspicious of the NAM in cases like this. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pscz1140 Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Why is everyone speaking in riddles? The eagle has landed, the fat man walks alone. Getting cold is looking more and more likely, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Why is everyone speaking in riddles?Jack be nibbled - Jack be bold - Jack Frost is waking between the fold... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Could you give a hint? I do like how the 18z GFS kept things cold for a day or two longer than previous runs. The ensemble control model was insanely cold for a long time. Past history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The block looks more healthy on the 0z in the day 3 to day 4 time frame than previous runs. 850mb temps drop to about -8 Sunday night. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I just noticed something in the ECMWF that makes me believe tonights run will be the best yet. Stayed tuned.......... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00z is pretty chilly for next week. Still not a full on arctic blast like the Euro is showing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 At hour 174 I would definitely call the 00z a step in the right direction. 522 thickness line well south of PDX. I think it still goes zonal in the long range. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00z is pretty chilly for next week. Still not a full on arctic blast like the Euro is showing. -10 850s to Portland Friday morning will be plenty cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 -10 850s to Portland Friday afternoon will be plenty cold.Yeah, I typed that a little early. It gets colder by Friday. Much better compared to earlier GFS runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Definitely some potential for overrunning later on. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS ALERT! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00z is close to greatness in the long range. Still pretty D**n good! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pscz1140 Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS ALERT! All the good vibes, riddles, and alarms paid off!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GFS is QUINTESSENTIAL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 All the good vibes, riddles, and alarms paid off!!I blame it on the power of wishful thinking... --- Maybe the riddles... Geesh I am torn. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GFS had potential, but I'm not that big of a fan..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00Z Canadian at 144 hours: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GFS had potential, but I'm not that big of a fan..... 00z GFS had potential, but I'm not that big of a fan.....Sarcasm..... Excellent run. A LOT of potential after day 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GFS had potential, but I'm not that big of a fan..... Way out there... and way too many moving parts. Next week is pretty much dry. The rest is just dream land for now. I am thinking the Canadian and ECMWF are more on track. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GEM.... Cold through HR 180 then it is entirely different shoves the 2nd cold air mass well down off Alaska resulting in a ridge building over the area after HR 168-180.http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Way out there... and way too many moving parts. Next week is pretty much dry. The rest is just dream land for now. I am thinking the Canadian and ECMWF are more on track.You always have to ruin our fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 You always have to ruin our fun. Well come on... if you want to celebrate snow at 240 hours then go ahead. Seems a tad premature to me. But that just me. I think the next 7 days are in a little better focus and there is some potential. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GFS had potential, but I'm not that big of a fan..... Sarcasm..... Excellent run. A LOT of potential after day 6.Tim, you missed the sarcasm part. There is nothing to be negative about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Tim, you missed the sarcasm part. There is nothing to be negative about. Not being negative. Just don't care what it shows beyond 168 hours. Plenty cold next week. Just need some kind of low to spin up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 As of now, 00z GFS gets entire region cold, then overrunning event. Vancouver BC will get a nice overrunning event and maybe even alot more, maybe Seattle too. Portland is kind of sketchy but they always have the gorge winds. It's still to far out too know for sure where the system will track. The next several model runs will be absolutely critical. I bet people living in Vancouver BC are getting excited now. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=CYVR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Modified arctic air is already arriving by Monday on the WRF. It looks colder over the Columbia Basin and much sooner compared to previous runs.http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013100/images_d2/slp.84.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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