PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[jcmcgaffey]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

First snows of the winter for each city should be as follows:

SeaTac. Dec. 14th

Pdx. Dec. 4th

Spokane. Nov. 17th

Eugene. Dec. 25th

Bend. Nov. 11th

Salem.  Dec. 24th

 

I meant shafted with lack of rain. No matter how dry we are coming up to it. We rarely avoid a major switch over to rainy storms around the middle of October. 

[ShawniganLake]

Just saw the sign reminding drivers that winter tires are mandatory on the highway north of Victoria starting tomorrow.  

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just saw the sign reminding drivers that winter tires are mandatory on the highway north of Victoria starting tomorrow.  

So did we... reminder to carry chains over Snoqualmie Pass.

[snow_wizard]

Well...we are definitely going to be in uncharted waters going forward.  We are undoubtedly looking at the strong likelihood of driest 4 month (120 period) period ever recorded.  We are at around 105 with almost nothing.  I'm dying to see what the flip side of this is going to be.  I just can't get over how the pattern doesn't change no matter what right now.

[snow_wizard]

The really intriguing thing about the weather this year is the way these regimes lock in like the jaws of a bulldog.  If we can get into a cold pattern this winter and it locks it could be amazing.  The problem is a terrible pattern could lock in like that too.

Phil is saying 1988 is the closest match, and the hammer certainly dropped that winter, so we'll see.  Interestingly the 1942-43 Nina was pretty similar to 1988 and it had an extremely dry late summer / early autumn until it broke in very late October.  That winter ended up with epic blocking and cold in January.

In the meantime this is going to be BORING.

[snow_wizard]

The latest CFS looks like a 1929-30 redux.  Very dead autumn, more active December, and then very cold January.

[Phishy Wx]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The latest CFS looks like a 1929-30 redux.  Very dead autumn, more active December, and then very cold January.

Please dear heavenly father!

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still hoping to see Phil in a week and a half, I figure when I get back into town on the 17th things will be looking a lot different than they do now. 

When are you here? I do have a wedding to attend but should be able to work around that without issue.

[ShawniganLake]

45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...we are definitely going to be in uncharted waters going forward.  We are undoubtedly looking at the strong likelihood of driest 4 month (120 period) period ever recorded.  We are at around 105 with almost nothing.  I'm dying to see what the flip side of this is going to be.  I just can't get over how the pattern doesn't change no matter what right now.

This is the flip side of wet weather previously observed.  Last November floods and a generally wet winter and spring. Might just progressively turn more seasonal going forward.   Doesn’t have to be a cold or wet flip side upcoming. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The really intriguing thing about the weather this year is the way these regimes lock in like the jaws of a bulldog.  If we can get into a cold pattern this winter and it locks it could be amazing.  The problem is a terrible pattern could lock in like that too.

Phil is saying 1988 is the closest match, and the hammer certainly dropped that winter, so we'll see.  Interestingly the 1942-43 Nina was pretty similar to 1988 and it had an extremely dry late summer / early autumn until it broke in very late October.  That winter ended up with epic blocking and cold in January.

In the meantime this is going to be BORING.

My money is on sucky.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Executive summary: torchity torch torch torch.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

When are you here? I do have a wedding to attend but should be able to work around that without issue.

I'll be getting in on the afternoon of the 10th and flying out the morning of the 13th. I'll be at the Hyatt downtown. 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'll be getting in on the afternoon of the 10th and flying out the morning of the 13th. I'll be at the Hyatt downtown. 

Awesome. Should be able to do the 12th, then. Will let u know.

[T-Town]

If there’s a silver lining to all of this it’s that my business proposal for the Tacoma Saguaro Cactus Reserve and Scorpion Petting Zoo is finally getting some real traction with the venture capitalist community. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, T-Town said:

If there’s a silver lining to all of this it’s that my business proposal for the Tacoma Saguaro Cactus Reserve and Scorpion Petting Zoo is finally getting some real traction with the venture capitalist community. 

We need to bring Karl Bonner back. 

[snow_wizard]

50 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

This is the flip side of wet weather previously observed.  Last November floods and a generally wet winter and spring. Might just progressively turn more seasonal going forward.   Doesn’t have to be a cold or wet flip side upcoming. 

My money is on abnormal over the next 4 or 5 months.

[snow_wizard]

48 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My money is on sucky.

As grumpy as I am about the state of the weather right now, I still think the chances of something good are elevated.  Being in a significant Nina right now makes this pretty intriguing.

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, T-Town said:

If there’s a silver lining to all of this it’s that my business proposal for the Tacoma Saguaro Cactus Reserve and Scorpion Petting Zoo is finally getting some real traction with the venture capitalist community. 

This reminds me....there actually are scorpions in parts of SW WA.  I was really surprised to find out about that a few years back.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Today was a nice surprise.  Somewhat cool temps with 69/46 here.

[snow_wizard]

Barring any inversions the next week has ridiculous torch potential.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This reminds me....there actually are scorpions in parts of SW WA.  I was really surprised to find out about that a few years back.

Yes, southwestern Washington, you are correct. Specifically, the California Forest Scorpion (Uroctonus mordax). I believe I stepped on one once while barefoot in the Columbia Gorge. Never saw the creature, but my foot smarted a fair bit.

[snow_wizard]

Don't even look at the 18z GFS.  Just plain gross.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yes, southwestern Washington, you are correct. Specifically, the California Forest Scorpion (Uroctonus mordax). I believe I stepped on one once while barefoot in the Columbia Gorge. Never saw the creature, but my foot smarted a fair bit.

Ouch!

[TacomaWx]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Today was a nice surprise.  Somewhat cool temps with 69/46 here.

66/53 here so far. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

This is getting silly.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

This is getting silly.

 

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Barring any inversions the next week has ridiculous torch potential.

Hoping we don't see any strong east wind, I don't think there's been enough rain to end fire season.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

My money is on abnormal over the next 4 or 5 months.

It’s been a strange year. We switched to autumn right around the fall equinox, which is bizarrely early.

In fact I can’t recall the last time we had a bonafide cool front with 40mph gradient winds in late September. Don’t think it’s happened this century.

We’ll see where it goes, but something is definitely different.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

This is getting silly.

This run was awful.

The only Nina year that really matches this combo of summer and early autumn is 1942.  That summer was very hot for that era with a very dry Sept / most of October.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

This is getting silly.

Let’s recap the last 100 days or so and forecast the next 15. The heat records don’t overlap:

Hottest week ever

Hottest month ever

Hottest September ever

Hottest first half of October ever

Longest streak of 70+ highs ever (still alive)

Longest streak of 50+ lows ever (still alive)

40 consecutive days above normal 

Driest astronomical summer ever

Driest first half of October ever 

Is there anywhere on earth that has had more consistently anomalous weather than the PNW over the same period of time? Maybe parts of China?

[fubario]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

By next weekend the 12Z ECMWF is extremely warm in the west and the complete opposite in the east.   

 

i love this for you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kinda getting the feeling we end up with the warmest October ever. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s been a strange year. We switched to autumn right around the fall equinox, which is bizarrely early.

In fact I can’t recall the last time we had a bonafide cool front with 40mph gradient winds in late September. Don’t think it’s happened this century.

We’ll see where it goes, but something is definitely different.

Just looking at the Atlantic Hurricane season you can see the abnormality.  The first half of the season was the quietest in ages, and now it's just completely swinging the other way.  This year could give a person whiplash from Mother Nature's wild mood swings.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kinda getting the feeling we end up with the warmest October ever. 

At the time August, September and October 2014 were also the warmest on record at PDX

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doiinko said:

At the time August, September and October 2014 were also the warmest on record at PDX

Interesting stat. And that winter was freaking awful, though it was a Nino. 

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting stat. And that winter was freaking awful, though it was a Nino. 

And now that August record has been beaten twice, the October record in 2015 and now the September record too.

[Phil]

I’m kind of afraid we’re blowing our load here in Sep/Oct, then come Nov/Dec things flip and I end up stuck under a giant ridge for 6 weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doiinko said:

And now that August record has been beaten twice, the October record in 2015 and now the September record too.

Apparently the climate is warming.  

We have also had a run of remarkably warm Januaries. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m kind of afraid we’re blowing our load here in Sep/Oct, then come Nov/Dec things flip and I end up stuck under a giant ridge for 6 weeks.

Kind of interesting how you are at the other end of the spectrum from us.  It would be exactly like us being in what you're having and vice versa with a Nino going right now.