Phishy Wx Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 first backdoor action of the season ohhh la la 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 850s in BC -32c! 5 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: 850s in BC -32c! Just slide it down the coast that's all I ask. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 C & EWA dream shot 2 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Freaking awesome model run and it's not even Halloween! Wait until 00z Halloween night! Woooooooooooo! 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 4 minutes 4 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 GEM is on board 4 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Forget a front loaded Winter, how about a middle loaded Fall? something like that. C'MON!!!! 5 4 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 00z GEFS Day 7.5 (Past 4 runs) Notch further east and a bit more amplified. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Jesus Nov 2010 for me but 2 weeks earlier. Better tune up the snow blower and put the Blizzacks on! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 00z GEFS Day 8 (Past 4 runs) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Dang the clown is pretty snowy 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Dang the clown is pretty snowy Is it? I rarely look beyond Day 10. 00z ECMWF in 26 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 This run pretty much gets there. A little more tweaking and this could get pretty real. 6 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Is it? I rarely look beyond Day 10. 00z ECMWF in 26 minutes 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 The GFS spits out a solid week of max temps in the low to mid 40s for SEA. Solidly cold for this early. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 GEFS is 200+ miles further east with the block/arctic trough than the GFS Op. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Could this REALLY be a possibility before the middle of November? I mean why not. Why not continue the extreme and highly anomalous events. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 The analogs have been amazing for a while now. 1956, 1971, and 1990 have been in the top for over a week now. Also seeing some 1984, 1985, 2006, and 2008 at times. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Could this REALLY be a possibility before the middle of November? I mean why not. Why not continue the extreme and highly anomalous events. The GEM sets up perfectly. Dead on hit. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: The GEM sets up perfectly. Dead on hit. We deserve a real snowy November and December. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Hard to not like the model trends right now. Everything shows us getting at least moderately cold. This could well put 1936 back on the table as an analog again. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 The GEM is stupid wet 2 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Currently 54 in Seattle and only 43 here. Pretty sharp gradient. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 close! Heck of a trough though! Super noob question but to read these maps, dark blues, purples, and pinks mean lower pressure that causes rain and snow while reds and oranges are higher pressures that cause hotter, sunnier weather? I remember asking this during the summer but wasn't sure if the same principles apply during colder months. Might take me years to learn the weather jargon and use these to predict forecasts, I could barely read GFS/Euro maps as it stands and it's only because of the colors, lol. 2 Quote 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: The GEM is stupid wet I think that will be hard to pull off with so much high pressure over the NE Pacific. There could be a brief window for a baroclinic zone however. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said: Super noob question but to read these maps, dark blues, purples, and pinks mean lower pressure that causes rain and snow while reds and oranges are higher pressures that cause hotter, sunnier weather? I remember asking this during the summer but wasn't sure if the same principles apply during colder months. Might take me years to learn the weather jargon and use these to predict forecasts, I could barely read GFS/Euro maps as it stands and it's only because of the colors, lol. Way more to it than that. We can be in the dark blue and have very little precip, although that would probably be very cold Just pay close attention to the comments and how they relate to the maps and you will catch on. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said: Super noob question but to read these maps, dark blues, purples, and pinks mean lower pressure that causes rain and snow while reds and oranges are higher pressures that cause hotter, sunnier weather? I remember asking this during the summer but wasn't sure if the same principles apply during colder months. Might take me years to learn the weather jargon and use these to predict forecasts, I could barely read GFS/Euro maps as it stands and it's only because of the colors, lol. The colors represent height anomalies at 500mb, which is generally the gold standard as it represents the “middle” of the atmosphere. Doesn’t tell the whole story about surface temps though, particularly during the cold season. There are many situations where low heights can be very mild in our climate and extremely high heights can be very cold at the surface. Clear as mud!!! 8 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 For whatever reason on Pivotal the ECMWF hi-res isn't running, so the past 4 runs would be the past 4 days of 00z runs. I can still do the ECMWF, GEM, GFS model comparison though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Unfortunately since the ECMWF hi-res maps on Pivotal aren't running, so that means I can't post the 10 Day Rainfall or Snowfall maps too. Lame. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 3 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said: --SATURDAY--NIGHT--MODEL--RIDING-- Begins in 1 hour 3 minutes (8:35 PM) BREAKING NEWS: Exciting announcement below! .... .... But Wait! There's MORE! In light of the rather substantial improvements seen on the 18z GEFS(GFS Ensembles), the likelihood of a big, fat, meaty, beefy Alaskan block developing around Day 5.5 to 6 with solid model agreement among the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF, a cold trough Day 7+ sliding south through British Columbia, and all of that potentially potential potential ahead, we have decided to *officially* tonight begin to Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!! 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 It appears the ECMWF might be heading toward less digging out over the ocean with the second trough. Just an educated guess at this point in the run. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 7 Well, that's new. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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