May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

It was a significant period of troughing.

 

Regardless of that fact that it only got us down to normal.

 

Its been very wet and cloudy up here for 2 straight weeks now. Looking forward to seeing sun for more than 5 minutes.

Is this a journal entry from May 1889?

[TT-SEA]

Is this a journal entry from May 1889?

May of 1889 also had sigificant troughing and rain. And a warm spell at the start of June. But it was a much warmer climate back then.

[stuffradio]

I've had over an inch of rain here today, and over .5 inches yesterday. Today is the wettest day since March.

[Jesse]

Pretty disappointed areas further south are missing out on the nourishing rain they are receiving from Olympia north today.

[TT-SEA]

I've had over an inch of rain here today, and over .5 inches yesterday. Today is the wettest day since March.

 

Just about 4 inches here in the last 2 weeks.    .25 on the day but a few small sun breaks now and temporarily not raining.

[Timmy Supercell]

I just had my 3rd

 

Considering highs haven't been all that warm (rather normal for highs I'd say!) this is actually a surprising observation.

 

I'll say once again that the whole first half of May averages 34-35 degrees. With such increased odds of having freezing mornings this one is a bit unusual.

[stuffradio]

It's snowing in the Whistler mountains right now.

[Jesse]

Seems to me I've heard this song before. Here in Eugene it's sunny without a cloud in the sky and 72 degrees.

How has the rest of this significant troughy period (four inches! according to a spotter in North Bend) gone for you guys down there?

[stuffradio]

Record breaking day up here for rain fallen in any day in May since 2001. http://globalnews.ca/news/2727753/wettest-day-of-the-year-for-metro-vancouver/

[Phil]

Will be interesting to see how those GOA SSTs respond to the upcoming storminess there. Southwest flow argues for warming, while strong winds/mixing and reduced insolation argues for cooling.

[ShawniganLake]

Record breaking day up here for rain fallen in any day in May since 2001. http://globalnews.ca/news/2727753/wettest-day-of-the-year-for-metro-vancouver/

Mostly rain shadowed in the westerly flow over here. Only 0.18".

[TT-SEA]

How has the rest of this significant troughy period (four inches! according to a spotter in North Bend) gone for you guys down there?

Just because Eugene is in a drought does not mean that it has not been wet up here. Is Eugene all that matters?

 

The heavy rainfall in the Vancouver BC area today did not happen unless it also rained in Eugene.

[FroYoBro]

Pretty nice day. Hit 70 with quite a bit of sun. Looking forward to a day or two of 90 degrees next week. 

[TT-SEA]

Radar very active again... just had more heavy rain and another band coming in after that.

 

http://s33.postimg.org/fdb6cdfvj/ATX_0.png

[BLI snowman]

Seems to me I've heard this song before.  Here in Eugene it's sunny without a cloud in the sky and 72 degrees.

 

Most of western WA has been drier than Eugene so far this month. 

[GHweatherChris]

Radar very active again... just had more heavy rain and another band coming in after that.

 

http://s33.postimg.org/fdb6cdfvj/ATX_0.png

I for one am glad for the rain, this will hopefully keep us from having total burn bans this summer, or at the very least less duration of.

[TT-SEA]

I for one am glad for the rain, this will hopefully keep us from having total burn bans this summer, or at the very least less duration of.

I don't mind heavy rain in the warm season at all.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Record breaking day up here for rain fallen in any day in May since 2001. http://globalnews.ca/news/2727753/wettest-day-of-the-year-for-metro-vancouver/

 

Looking at the past 24 hour conditions it would seem most of this probably fell over a couple hours of heavy-moderate rainfall this morning. Victoria is only up to about 0.25~0.35" though we are continuing to pick up showers, which seemed an impossible feat in the 2 weeks preceding this. It's been surprisingly warm through all this compared to other parts of the island (hovering around 15~16C [60F] for much of the day).

[Bryant]

Anyone here lived in/know about the Glenhaven area?

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1356-anyone-here-familiar-with-glenhaven/

[GHweatherChris]

I don't mind heavy rain in the warm season at all.

Never said you did mind. However, you act like you can't do anything if it's cloudy out in the warm season, your comments on it being cloudy up here and not down south stink of disappointment for some reason.

[TT-SEA]

Never said you did mind. However, you act like you can't do anything if it's cloudy out in the warm season, your comments on it being cloudy up here and not down south stink of disappointment for some reason.

 

 

Definitely jealous of Oregon today.

 

Not seeing the sun for most of 2 weeks sucks at any time of the year.     It gets old.   

 

Thankfully Monday is almost here.

[GHweatherChris]

Definitely jealous of Oregon today.

 

Not seeing the sun for most of 2 weeks sucks at any time of the year. It gets old.

 

Thankfully Monday is almost here.

Dry weather is great, doesn't have to be sunny to enjoy that.

[Phil]

00z GFS continues the theme of IO/MT forcing returning in the middle of June. Expect a drop in the AAM integral and a -PNA circulation to develop sometime around the third week of the month: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2016052900&fh=162&xpos=0&ypos=334

[Jesse]

00z GFS continues the theme of IO/MT forcing returning in the middle of June. Expect a drop in the AAM integral and a -PNA circulation to develop sometime around the third week of the month: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2016052900&fh=162&xpos=0&ypos=334

Things progressing a bit faster than you were expecting?

[Phil]

Things progressing a bit faster than you were expecting?

Yeah, by about a week.

 

I'm still bullish on a very warm first half of June, however the second half looks to finish chillier than I was thinking. Same probably goes for the start of July, and maybe beyond that.

 

If Niña forcing locks in by late June, then July will probably finish chillier than I was originally thinking. If forcing remains in propagatory orbit, then there'll be a break in mid-July followed by another crash later in the month, which will probably lock in.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, by about a week.

 

I'm still bullish on a very warm first half of June, however the second half looks to finish chillier than I was thinking. Same probably goes for the start of July, and maybe beyond that.

 

 

I knew we were picking a good year to be gone for the first week of July.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we end this 15-day stretch of gloom here with a solid all-night heavy drizzle event.    It is very soupy out there.  

[Phil]

I knew we were picking a good year to be gone for the first week of July.

Might've been a smart move. If forcing remains unstable/propagatory, then you'll probably see another period of ridging in mid-July, before another crash mid/late month. So that would be good timing for you, I'm guessing.

 

However, if forcing is finally able to stabilize in the E-Hem/WPAC (as it will eventually do), then it's all over.

[TT-SEA]

Even down in Snoqualmie which is drier than here... there has been more days with rain in May than dry days:

http://s33.postimg.org/z2zwjyx0f/Untitled.png

[Bryant]

Well, the drama-less forum lasted for a little while. It's funny that no matter who it is, whether it be myself, Phil, Jesse, or whoever, Tim is on the other end. Funny how that is

[Deweydog]

Without the past we'd have no chance to know what will happen in the future.

[Phil]

Without the past we'd have no chance to know what will happen in the future.

The past doesn't exist, all we have is a record of it.

[Deweydog]

The past doesn't exist, all we have is a record of it.

Deep stuff.

 

Some theories consider the fact the present also doesn't exist.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is nice.

[Deweydog]

[Phil]

In theory, the present is impossible to document. What we consider the present is simply our mind's ability to interpret the past, be it by a fraction of a second or longer.

Technically, the nature of that "recording" is debatable, because it doesn't physically exist.

 

So, just one of the many mysteries of wavefunction collapse, the dreaded "brain in a box", or both?

[TT-SEA]

Another very rainy morning in the central Sound... all the way back to downtown Seattle:

 

http://s33.postimg.org/fhymcwjfj/005vc16607.jpg

 

 

Rained here all night.    

[Front Ranger]

Another very rainy morning in the central Sound... all the way back to downtown Seattle:

 

Rained here all night.    

 

No rain at Boeing Field this AM.

 

It is amazing how localized the rain has been in your area this month. OLM still just at .15", driest May on record.

[TT-SEA]

No rain at Boeing Field this AM.

 

It is amazing how localized the rain has been in your area this month. OLM still just at .15", driest May on record.

My area being King County which has been very wet east of SEA and BFI.

 

We already discussed OLM. I told you the models were very dry again this weekend there with shadowing. And focused the rain up here again. Exactly what happened.