VancouverIslandSouth Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 It was seriously so dry there was no green left? I had no idea it was that bad up there. Nothing green left on the ground cover and many of the trees/shrubs dried out and lost their leaves. Things are looking much better now. We picked up another 0.2" in some quick hitting convective showers this morning and things are looking pretty dynamic on the radar. It sure beats the generally rainless systems of the past couple months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Perhaps even below freezing all the way down in Oregon too on the 00z min temps! If you're referring to the lowlands, that's good. Here Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 12Z GFS is way warmer for early next week compared to some previous runs. FWIW.... the 12Z Canadian is quite warm starting at day 5. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Does anyone here think there is any validity to Accuweather's long-range forecast of rain everyday starting around October 16, and continuing thru the 29th? They have been advertising the same thing now for the past several days.... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Does anyone here think there is any validity to Accuweather's long-range forecast of rain everyday starting around October 16, and continuing thru the 29th? They have been advertising the same thing now for the past several days.... Climo? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Does anyone here think there is any validity to Accuweather's long-range forecast of rain everyday starting around October 16, and continuing thru the 29th? They have been advertising the same thing now for the past several days....Not likely, I think those forecasts are a blend of climo and the CFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 12z GFS never breaks the ridge into Alaska. Result is a flat western ridge through the rest of the run. Need that initial ridge as poleward as possible. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Not likely, I think those forecasts are a blend of climo and the CFS Latest CFSv2 is pretty chilly across the entire West for most of October. Expect the opposite of whatever it shows! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 12z GFS never breaks the ridge into Alaska. Result is a flat western ridge through the rest of the run. Need that initial ridge as poleward as possible. 12Z GFS is a lovely run. I know... it will never verify. Don't bother telling me. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Latest CFSv2 is pretty chilly across the entire West for most of October. Expect the opposite of whatever it shows!Are you sure? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160919.201610.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Are you sure? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160919.201610.gif I was looking at the more recent sub-monthly run that goes out 45 days and came out overnight. The run above is a day old now and of course the new run is the opposite again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Latest update (the other site is still 2 days behind)... actually looks like a weak Nino if you look at only the eastern part of the ENSO region. Definitely a west-based Nina now which is supposed to be good for us. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.9.19.2016.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 I was looking at the more recent sub-monthly run that goes out 45 days and came out overnight. The run above is a day old now and of course the new run is the opposite again. So, should we expect the opposite of the day-old run, or the new run. You said to expect the opposite of whatever it shows.... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 So, should we expect the opposite of the day-old run, or the new run. You said to expect the opposite of whatever it shows.... Sarcasm... its worthless as your comment illustrates. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Latest update (the other site is still 2 days behind)... actually looks like a weak Nino if you look at only the eastern part of the ENSO region. Definitely a west-based Nina now which is supposed to be good for us. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.9.19.2016.gif"The other site" is definitely not 2 days behind http://i.imgur.com/a5ylgkK.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 "The other site" is definitely not 2 days behind http://i.imgur.com/a5ylgkK.jpg This is the most recent image on this site that Phil linked me to recently... http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index.php And now in the last 10 minutes it updated to 9/18. It is so different... I am trying to fool you. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Sarcasm... its worthless as your comment illustrates.I was actually being serious.... Can we attach any validity to the CFS, seeing as how it vacillates so wildly from one run to the next? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 I was actually being serious.... Can we attach any validity to the CFS, seeing as how it vacillates so wildly from one run to the next? It appears not. Until I had daily access... I did not know it completely flipped around with every run. Don't like what it shows... wait until the next run and it will be exactly what you want. Then ignore the next run after that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Pretty good ensemble support for the warm weekend on the 12z GFS. That's a shame. Maybe the 12z Euro will trend better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Actually... the WRF shows a solid marine layer day on Saturday with a building ridge. That is the only day that is shown to be totally socked in... so that will not be a warm day regardless of the 500mb pattern. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Pretty good ensemble support for the warm weekend on the 12z GFS. That's a shame. Maybe the 12z Euro will trend better.Last night I was actually excited about a possible frost in less than 10 days. I'll settle for the warm/dry though. I wonder when was the last time I had frost in September. I don't think in my life time, at least not that I can remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Last night I was actually excited about a possible frost in less than 10 days. I'll settle for the warm/dry though. I wonder when was the last time I had frost in September. I don't think in my life time, at least not that I can remember. Might take awhile for it to get all the way around to warm AND dry up there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Might take awhile for it to get all the way around to warm AND dry up there. I'm not talking about today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 I'm not talking about today. I am talking about early next week as well. The pattern is probably going to be a situation where the clouds and even some rain linger up in southern BC and NW WA even with a building ridge. This is based mostly on my memory of this type of pattern in the fall. Here is next Monday on the WRF: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/images_d2/intcld.180.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Last night I was actually excited about a possible frost in less than 10 days. I'll settle for the warm/dry though. I wonder when was the last time I had frost in September. I don't think in my life time, at least not that I can remember.September 2012, I was in Lynden, Washington and there was frost in the early mornings of the last 2 days of September... I don't think temperatures officially made it all the way down to 32, more like 34 or 35 or something, just enough for frost to occur.... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Might take awhile for it to get all the way around to warm AND dry up there.Probably less of a concern with what the euro is showing. Heights pushing 590 next weekend. I mentioned this last week but I think there will be some warmth during the last week of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Probably less of a concern with what the euro is showing. Heights pushing 590 next weekend. I mentioned this last week but I think there will be some warmth during the last week of the month. Wow... I just took a look at the new ECMWF coming out. I agree with you now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 12Z GFS is a lovely run. I know... it will never verify. Don't bother telling me. It might. I have no idea..complicated progression with lots of moving parts. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Heaven forbid we ever see a solidly cool month again. Over two and a half years since PDX last saw a month that was over two degrees below average. Try not to have a complete breakdown. We are saving the cool months for the Winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Try not to have a complete breakdown. We are saving the cool months for the Winter. Yup, that's really worked out for us the last few years! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Latest update (the other site is still 2 days behind)... actually looks like a weak Nino if you look at only the eastern part of the ENSO region. Definitely a west-based Nina now which is supposed to be good for us. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.9.19.2016.gifWell, a +QBO generally favors west-based Niñas via reducing Equatorial Pacific convection (lower/warmer tropopause) relative to the -QBO (higher/cooler tropopause). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 12Z ECMWF still getting back to troughing by day 10. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 You realize that 1985 was one of the coldest falls of the airport era, right? Also, October 2008 was notably chilly, with an early frost for many locations. Some early snow to pass level as well. October seems to have a better track record at predicting the winter regime than the other autumn months, from what I can tell.More of a crapshoot with September/November.Yeah, I've made several posts over the years about the cues October can provide. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Nice day. Southern edge of a strong SW-NE orientated c-zone visible over the Sound. http://s21.postimg.org/4eimuosh3/sea56.png http://s13.postimg.org/tuq4hsrl3/ATX_0.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Disturbingly good ensemble support for the 12z Euro next Sunday/Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Any ridge is short-lived in the ECMWF ensembles... crashes quickly into troughing after a couple days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Try not to have a complete breakdown. We are saving the cool months for the Winter. There's no such thing as saving the cold months for winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 There's no such thing as saving the cold months for winterWhat he meant to say is, we're saving the cold months for April and May. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Any ridge is short-lived in the ECMWF ensembles... crashes quickly into troughing after a couple days.Holy , Tim. Stop it. That's enough. What is wrong with you????? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Holy s**t, Tim. Stop it. That's enough. What is wrong with you????? Doing my best to try and calm down the intense fear and anxiety over what could be 2-3 days of warmer weather. It is tragic and shocking but somehow we can get through it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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