TT-SEA Posted September 21, 2016 Report Share Posted September 21, 2016 18Z GFS is progressive like the 12Z GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbotsford_wx Posted September 21, 2016 Report Share Posted September 21, 2016 Nice early fall day... 46/75, mostly sunny, crisp and breezy. East wind helping our temp this afternoon, but still managed a cool morning low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Only 62F for a high today here. Nice and sunny though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Forcing is very close to being "great" for winter prospects. A burst of tropical convection has developed around 120E, which is slightly west of where we want it. A classic Niña signal, but comes with risks of +EPO/equatorward NPAC anticyclones. Ideally, I'd like to see this convection relocate towards 150E for a more "assured" poleward NPAC block/-EPO: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1EE62D61-9EEA-409B-8670-F8CD6B6B7EB9_zpspgqlkd7j.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Some pretty big thunderstorms have developed along the east side of the Willamette Valley this afternoon. A big one just north of Silverton right now and down towards Lebanon. A lot of visible lightning and audible thunder here. Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Love this forum. It's so funny to read. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Constant thunder now. Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Constant thunder now.   I was just driving home and heard lightning static on AM radio and saw lightning from somewhere despite a crystal clear sky above. There is a cell off to the northeast and another one to the southeast here... but they are quite a distance away. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 I was just driving home and heard lightning static on AM radio and saw lightning from somewhere despite a crystal clear sky above. There is a cell off to the northeast and another one to the southeast here... but they are quite a distance away.Nice looking cell right over Hwy 2 right now. I was also hearing the Lightning static while listening to AM as well over the last few days! Been bumpy around here this week! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Love this forum. It's so funny to read.It's much like your username sometimes! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The Friday system seems to be coming in a bit faster than original forecast. It'll be interesting to see if it holds together down to the Olympic Peninsula. It still looks like it falls apart pretty rapidly and it's running into a bit of a strange atmospheric configuration, but it may yet surprise us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Can already tell by d7 that the 00z is gonna be "meh". Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The GFS has been incredibly consistent with the big trough next week and thicknesses falling to around 540.  Not bad at all! No doubt SEA is showing it warm bias colors with the current cool period.  A low of 52 this morning is a joke considering it dropped to 42 here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Can already tell by d7 that the 00z is gonna be "meh". A 1040 mb surface high over the GOA is pretty good for meh. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 A 1040 mb surface high over the GOA is pretty good for meh.Well, I was (jokingly) referring the clown range beyond d7. Not really worth discussing yet. Poleward of 50N over the NPAC, there's almost zero meridional momentum exchange by d7. That's..well, not good. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Well, I was (jokingly) referring the clown range beyond d7. Not really worth discussing yet. Poleward of 50N over the NPAC, there's almost zero meridional momentum exchange by d7. That's..well, not good. At this point week two is in pretty big doubt obviously. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 At this point week two is in pretty big doubt obviously.Of course. I was only half serious.  Obviously, the 00z GFS is an outlier for now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Happy fall, y'all. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Happy fall, y'all. For sure! It seems like fall has been here for a while already though.  We're already getting some fall color. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Happy fall, y'all.You're three weeks late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Was there even a summer at all? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 You're three weeks late. Even non-meteorologists must now acknowledge that summer is over. Unless they're Indian. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 You're three weeks late. Astronomically, he's right on time! (sort of) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Was there even a summer at all?Considering some locations in the western lowlands started seeing 90s as early as the first week of April, and were still flirting with 100 less than a month ago, I would say yes. Probably not enough for you. But we certainly had one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Considering some locations in the western lowlands starting seeing 90s as early as the first week of April, and were still flirting with 100 less than a month ago, I would say yes. Probably not enough for you. But we certainly had one.Man, you gotta settle down. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Man, you gotta settle down.I know. I've been out of control lately. Truly the summer without a summer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The GFS ensemble has grown impressively ccol for the Sept 29 through October 5 period. The warm interlude has been noticeably nibbled away on this run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The 00z GEFS look much improved over the NPAC during week2.  Ridge is sharper/poleward, downstream western trough is also deeper. No sign of that PV-from-Hoth, as depicted by the operational GFS. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The GFS ensemble has grown impressively ccol for the Sept 29 through October 5 period. The warm interlude has been noticeably nibbled away on this run. I was just about to post about the same thing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 I know. I've been out of control lately. Truly the summer without a summer!You've just seemed super punchy the last few days, and not just to me. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The WRF still insists on a very cool day Friday. I will be interested to see how it plays out. It now shows Saturday being pretty cool also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The GFS ensemble has grown impressively ccol for the Sept 29 through October 5 period. The warm interlude has been noticeably nibbled away on this run.Ninja'd. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Great shot my friend took in Salem tonight.  Photo Credit: Jon SImonsen 4 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Great shot my friend took in Salem tonight.  Photo Credit: Jon SImonsen  May the power of Christ compel you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Great shot my friend took in Salem tonight.  Photo Credit: Jon SImonsen Jesus. Roadhouse. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 You've just seemed super punchy the last few days, and not just to me. Yup! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 00z ensembles are certainly much improved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Great shot my friend took in Salem tonight.  Photo Credit: Jon SImonsen  Pretty nice for cold core storms. This is actually a pretty dynamic pattern we are in. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Pretty nice for cold core storms. This is actually a pretty dynamic pattern we are in. The pattern the last 5-6 days has been pretty awesome. Looks to continue that way for awhile. The Friday through mid next week period has the potential to be especially dynamic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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