luminen Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 52.5F and drizzling at YVR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 55, cloudy, and breezy here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Sun peaking out at times here now... even more to my west. http://s11.postimg.org/ctbj4f843/090vc02567_2.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Sun peaking out at times here now... even more to my west. http://s11.postimg.org/ctbj4f843/090vc02567_2.jpgAny casualties thus far? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Pretty bright now in Seattle as well... no longer the gunkfest it was earlier. http://s15.postimg.org/7agc9f71n/sea54.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Finally an overcast day! I feel the need to celebrate this. First day since..... sometime in March? (not counting convective days, completely different animal in meteorology) Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Totally cleared out in Seattle now... faster than models were showing. http://s14.postimg.org/hdq7yhzk1/sea57.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 The GFS ensemble continues to look colder for early October. Nice looking trough depicted for that time. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Wow, long range opens up the faucet with more than 5" of rain. Good thing that changes every 6 hours. Phil, 2007 had decent snowstorms here though, so that wouldn't be bad. I don't know how it was further south though. It sucked below 800 feet down here. We can do much better than that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 That's a pretty wicked trough next Saturday on the euro. 850's may drop below 0 with that. That kind of pattern in a cold ENSO October is always a good sign for winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 SEA managed to sneak up to 63 late today... only got a -2 on the day. I guess we weren't due for a significant cold anomaly day. Portland put up a healthy -5 and 'owned' SEA again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 SEA managed to sneak up to 63 late today... only got a -2 on the day. I guess we weren't due for a significant cold anomaly day. Portland put up a healthy -5 and 'owned' SEA again.SEA gets owned on a regular basis when it comes to cool anomalies... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 SEA gets owned on a regular basis when it comes to cool anomalies... I guess that's true now. It didn't used to be to such an extent. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 I have noticed that the ECMWF has had a tendency to be too aggressive lately in the 7-10 period. Here is what the middle of next week looked like earlier this week... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-z9bbre.png And now the same time from the 12Z run now that its 5 days away... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-L12fjh.png The trough it shows now on day 8 might be close enough to hold up though. Its very impressive looking. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Tfhun6.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 I have noticed that the ECMWF has had a tendency to be too aggressive lately in the 7-10 period. Here is what the middle of next week looked like earlier this week... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-z9bbre.png And now the same time from the 12Z run now that its 5 days away... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-L12fjh.png The trough it shows now on day 8 might be close enough to hold up though. Its very impressive looking. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Tfhun6.pngHmmm... Models tending to be too aggressive with anomalies in the long range. We should probably look into this. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 It rained all day today but it finally stopped just after 7pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Hmmm... Models tending to be too aggressive with anomalies in the long range. We should probably look into this. Sort of bored... watching a 10-1 Mariners win. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Only hit 54F for a high today. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Stay safe if you are in Burlington this evening, sad news. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 The 0z GFS is majestic with the block as of day 6. I am really liking this. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 The 0z GFS is majestic with the block as of day 6. I am really liking this. Looks good at 192 hours... actually higher heights and drier than the 12Z run at that time but the block looks much nicer. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Thicknesses drop to 537 on this run. It kind of sucks after day 10, but that's too far out to worry about yet. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Stay safe if you are in Burlington this evening, sad news. Just south of my location, very sad indeed. Been listening to the scanner for over an hour, still haven't found the suspect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 00Z GFS goes from the block above to this just 4 days later... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Just south of my location, very sad indeed. Been listening to the scanner for over an hour, still haven't found the suspect Anyone care to say what's going on? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Tim is gonna love this GFS run. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Anyone care to say what's going on? Check the news Jim. You are on a computer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Tim is gonna love this GFS run. Volatile situation... can't count on anything. I just wonder if we are going to flip to a warm pattern for October though. Would not surprise me if the most important month to predict winter ends up being warm in the West just to make people worry. Long range models certainly have been hinting at that happening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Anyone care to say what's going on? A shooter at Cascade Mall in Burlington. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Terrible. We (as a species) have a problem, and I think it's innately primal. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Tim is gonna love this GFS run. I certainly do up until day 10 or so. I'm not too worried about the longer range given the recent trend of the models to prolong the troughing and shorten the ridging as the time frames narrow. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 I certainly do up until day 10 or so. I'm not too worried about the longer range given the recent trend of the models to prolong the troughing and shorten the ridging as the time frames narrow. That could change again... July was like that and then August seemed to stay ridgy longer than the models showed. Could certainly go back to that in October. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 I certainly do up until day 10 or so. I'm not too worried about the longer range given the recent trend of the models to prolong the troughing and shorten the ridging as the time frames narrow.I think there will be a period of ridging in October, but how long it lasts is another question, in my opinion. The GFS starts the process faster than I've been thinking, but then again I've had a slow bias all summer, so yeah. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 I bet the ensembles are weaker with the ridge in the long range. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 I think there will be a period of ridging in October, but how long it lasts is another question, in my opinion. The GFS starts the process faster than I've been thinking, but then again I've had a slow bias all summer, so yeah. There could be, but that GOA ridge has been incredibly resilient this season. October is the month I'm really pulling for, because of the historical link of cold Octobers to cold winters with cold ENSO. Let November torch all it wants. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 I bet the ensembles are weaker with the ridge in the long range. Ya think? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 There could be, but that GOA ridge has been incredibly resilient this season. October is the month I'm really pulling for, because of the historical link of cold Octobers to cold winters with cold ENSO. Let November torch all it wants.I think if anything, the opposite has been true in recent years. Note that the higher-performing -ENSO winters this century (2008/09, 2010/11, and 2013/14) were fairly ridgy in October, while the crappier -ENSO winters (2005/06, 2007/08, 2011/12) were generally troughier and/or zonal. Also, the Octobers preceding 1978/79 and 1988/89 were generally warm/ridgy. So, I don't think there's a huge correlation here. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Terrible. We (as a species) have a problem, and I think it's innately primal.I know this is a tad off topic but this evening before the shooting my wife, daughter and myself were at a local restaurant having dinner and I kept thinking to myself what if someone comes in and starts shooting, what is our best exit routes, ect...not exactly a fun relaxing time. Then we get home and hear about the mall shooting which is only 20 minutes from us and at a place I have been to many many times through the years. I just don't like being out in public anymore which I guess means the bad guys have won. This country really needs to look at the mental health crisis instead of looking the other way. Anyway back to weather... 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 I know this is a tad off topic but this evening before the shooting my wife, daughter and myself were at a local restaurant having dinner and I kept thinking to myself what if someone comes in and starts shooting, what is our best exit routes, ect...not exactly a fun relaxing time. Then we get home and hear about the mall shooting which is only 20 minutes from us and at a place I have been to many many times through the years. I just don't like being out in public anymore which I guess means the bad guys have won. This country really needs to look at the mental health crisis instead of looking the other way. Anyway back to weather...I think the issue is when you have 320 million people in a country then the likely hood of things like this can happen. It seems know a days people who get bullied, or picked on there whole lives know take there anger out in violence and by killing people. It's really scary how teenagers can get there hands on weapons very easily. The sad truth of our reality is that know a days violence is a way of life and unfortunately (Police/Regular citizens can take a life away. Even in places with low population you have to be aware of your surroundings. Mental illness is another issue of it's own but as you said they need to do something about it. We shouldn't be afraid to go out and enjoy our lives but that's what it's coming too. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 I know this is a tad off topic but this evening before the shooting my wife, daughter and myself were at a local restaurant having dinner and I kept thinking to myself what if someone comes in and starts shooting, what is our best exit routes, ect...not exactly a fun relaxing time. Then we get home and hear about the mall shooting which is only 20 minutes from us and at a place I have been to many many times through the years. I just don't like being out in public anymore which I guess means the bad guys have won. This country really needs to look at the mental health crisis instead of looking the other way. Anyway back to weather...Couldn't agree more. The mental health aspect is quite complicated, unfortunately. Thoughts don't physically exist, and asserting who should/shouldn't have access to a gun based on hypotheticals could open multiple cans of worms. I've also found myself analyzing my surrounding environment on a more frequent basis, almost subconsciously. Hopefully one day I won't have to. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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